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Beginning of the End of the Everything Bubble (and 800K Hammers and EaaS and wild BaT car prices and and and....)
- Thread starter Jlaa
- Start date
A pinball machine for cars would have been much more fun and impressive
Already exists. It's called New Jersey.A pinball machine for cars would have been much more fun and impressive
Yet and still, here we are, with today's episode ...
maw
maw
So much money out there chasing odometers. I had a 45K mile 1987 560SL for quite some years. Not that great of a car to drive, to be honest. I completely erred in the decision to get an R107 over an R129. If I'd bought the R129, I'd probably still own it.
I will see your totally-mainstream Germanic 2-doors and raise you a wacky droptop Swede.
[admittedly this hammered last year, but still....]
[admittedly this hammered last year, but still....]
and I struggled to get $246 for my $145k mile 900S Cabrio
Yes, but repainted in f’ing merlot
Or worse... meaning its out of their hands... which is the camp I've been in for a bit... I was calling 6% at the beginning, and now I'm hopeful that they can stop at that level... while I think raising from here should be an every other meeting thing (I have a longer horizon than most markets), on balance I believe raising is what they'll be doing at least through 6%, and I don't like it one bit because I think the consumer (2/3 of the economy) taps out before then (you know, those who don't need to park money in cars or Bored Apes).
EDIT... think of it this way... had Effin Peter Thiel not triggered a run on SVB, the Fed would have still been raising at 1/2 to 3/4 points a meeting... that run calmed animal spirits a bit for a while... that bit and while are now over, so where are we?
maw
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Famous Saab 900 From the Oscar Winning Movie “SIDEWAYS” Sells For $8,495
Saab cars have participated in the shooting of a large number of movies and TV series, and many of these cars have gained some cult status. In general, as far as Saab's models are concerned, in our opinion, the Saab 900 Convertible is still in the first place, ahead of all other models. The 900C...
www.saabplanet.com
FFffing Peter Thiel that b**tard!!
. Bruh, I have no idea where we are. Actually it feels like there is a lot of slo-mo value destruction that is playing out ….. but it is happening in S. L. O. W. M. O. T. I. O. N.Look at 10K/Q of HTGC. Public company - specialize in venture debt. Check out their portfolio companies. Are ANY of these companies not juuuuuuuuussssstttt hanging on by the skin of their teeth of whatever that idiom is?
PS - automotive content - Carwow (that English youtuber guy) is on the list!!!!
Agreed... the zombie company march to Chapter 11 is where we are. And we're so afraid of it we cheer when Carvana gets off that treadmill for a few quarters. Carvana!! For a few quarters!!
Puhleezz. Just die already so the money can go to good companies. Make venture capitalists earn their keep and find good companies, not this coked up, we don't think too hard, any old narrative will play, BS.
I feel like we're looking at the LIV Golf version of capitalism for the last decade. Enough already. Move on (dot org).
maw
EDIT… @Jlaa Hercules looks like a Titanic turning… ssslllohhhlllyyy
Puhleezz. Just die already so the money can go to good companies. Make venture capitalists earn their keep and find good companies, not this coked up, we don't think too hard, any old narrative will play, BS.
I feel like we're looking at the LIV Golf version of capitalism for the last decade. Enough already. Move on (dot org).
maw
EDIT… @Jlaa Hercules looks like a Titanic turning… ssslllohhhlllyyy
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Iknowrite??? Cavana!!!!!! So some of the debt got restructured but they still have a shitload of debt and a cray cray biz model and we are staring into a future environment where there will be an oversupply of NEW cars so used car values will be weaksauce and …….wall street goes gaga
over carvana! WTF? 
Or maybe getting to use the "vending machine" that some Carvana locations have (there's one near me in Tampa)?So weird about Carvana. I just took a peek --- I'm in the market for a poverty-spec VW Jetta and I noted that I can buy a NEW poverty-spec Jetta for LESS than a USED 1 year old poverty-spec Jetta on Carvana with 17K miles. And this was an offer from a local dealer without doing any price-haggling-combat at all.
I guess people are ok with paying a premium to avoid haggling? Jeez.
Must be, as when I was considering buying a used small pickup truck, like a Ford Ranger, Carvana was selling 10 year old examples in really good condition for about 60%-70% of (new) retail. Now I know trucks have been in demand, but that's just crazy.
Dan
Used truck prices are still insane. For kicks I did the online appraisal for my 2020 F150 and it came back at $37k which considering I only paid $41k new 3 years and 57k miles ago is nuts but the F250 I want is nearly $80k so I'm keeping my current truck.
A guy at work just took delivery of a new pickemup truck. IIRC it's a 2023 GMC Sierra, I think the AT4 trim (link), with the Duramax diesel engine. It was $70k. SEVENTY!! It has a positively insane amount of bells & whistles, it's closer to piloting aircraft than driving something with four wheels. But still...
maw
I daily drive a 2019 Chevy Tahoe. Was able to use employee pricing/discount and purchased the base model with only 4 wheel drive as the major option. (Had aftermarket leather seat covers installed.) $44k after discounts, when the regular lot/showroom models were in the upper $50s. I just wanted a V-8 4x4 with a proven drivetrain. Friend at work lambasted me for not getting the trim package with heated seats, sunroof, etc. It’s crazy what these full sized trucks and large SUVs are selling for.A guy at work just took delivery of a new pickemup truck. IIRC it's a 2023 GMC Sierra, I think the AT4 trim (link), with the Duramax diesel engine. It was $70k. SEVENTY!! It has a positively insane amount of bells & whistles, it's closer to piloting aircraft than driving something with four wheels. But still...
We always go down the row of exhibitors at the annual Strawberry Festival where the dealers have their trucks parked. Understand that this is for a fairly small agricultural community that produces the bulk of strawberries in the US. Lots of farmers.
I have seen trucks on display in the last couple of years that reach almost to six figures. I was told that if you go up capacity-wise, like 1.5 or 2 ton, you can easily surpass that. Tough to get one's head around that.
Dan
It’s up 3xx% on the all time chart. Wonder if long dated puts will do wellFFffing Peter Thiel that b**tard!!
Look at 10K/Q of HTGC. Public company - specialize in venture debt. Check out their portfolio companies. Are ANY of these companies not juuuuuuuuussssstttt hanging on by the skin of their teeth of whatever that idiom is?
PS - automotive content - Carwow (that English youtuber guy) is on the list!!!!
View attachment 170903
View attachment 170904
Well … over 10 years, it has failed to beat SPY…..It’s up 3xx% on the all time chart. Wonder if long dated puts will do well
Classic cars flashing warnings signs among high-end collectors
CNBC's Robert Frank joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Pebble Beach Car Auction, classic cars sales as an indicator for consumer health, and continued interest in Porsche.
The secret engine powering Ferrari's growth
CNBC's Robert Frank joins 'Squawk on the Street' from the Pebble Beach Car Auctions in Monterey, California with a look at what's powering Ferrari's growth.
... Collector cars down 7%... Reggie Jackson still oblivious... Ferrari on a heater.
maw
Interesting. There was this graph inside tracking prices of various tulip markets too.Classic cars flashing warnings signs among high-end collectors
CNBC's Robert Frank joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the Pebble Beach Car Auction, classic cars sales as an indicator for consumer health, and continued interest in Porsche.www.cnbc.com
The secret engine powering Ferrari's growth
CNBC's Robert Frank joins 'Squawk on the Street' from the Pebble Beach Car Auctions in Monterey, California with a look at what's powering Ferrari's growth.
... Collector cars down 7%... Reggie Jackson still oblivious... Ferrari on a heater.
maw
As a large investor, hes obliged at this point, right?
Nah that’s just him. I love his persona and what he meant for baseball and me growing up playing baseball, but that’s just him.As a large investor, hes obliged at this point, right?
It’s mostly a factor of when he made his money. If you made money in the 70’s when shit was bad for everyone because of inflation, the ‘80s and ‘90s supercharged your money, so you were largely immune to the post 9/11 corrections from ‘02-‘12, and since then you've been basically oblivious because you have so much money.
Short story, not rocket science, I’m sure it sounds familiar.
maw
Gooding was a total bloodbath. I can't imagine the angry calls they were getting. A lot of cars sold 50% less than their estimates.
bid.goodingco.com
How can you tell a seller their car sold for $500,000 less than you gave them an estimate on?
And they seriously thought they were getting over $125,000 for a 230SL?
Pebble Beach Auctions 2023 | Gooding & Company
To browse a preview, please visit goodingco.com. Gooding & Company, the official auction house of the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, is proud to announce its presentation of the highly anticipated Pebble Beach Auctions. The Auctions, taking place on August 18 and 19 at the Parc du Concours...
How can you tell a seller their car sold for $500,000 less than you gave them an estimate on?
And they seriously thought they were getting over $125,000 for a 230SL?
ohhhhh 65K is a good deal for a 230SL pagoda right? Maybe there's hope yet!Gooding was a total bloodbath. I can't imagine the angry calls they were getting. A lot of cars sold 50% less than their estimates.
Pebble Beach Auctions 2023 | Gooding & Company
To browse a preview, please visit goodingco.com. Gooding & Company, the official auction house of the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, is proud to announce its presentation of the highly anticipated Pebble Beach Auctions. The Auctions, taking place on August 18 and 19 at the Parc du Concours...
How can you tell a seller their car sold for $500,000 less than you gave them an estimate on?
And they seriously thought they were getting over $125,000 for a 230SL?
View attachment 172589
@a777fan , cleanup on aisle 5 please, cleanup on aisle 5. Bloodbath on aisle 5”
Seems like you will get your 036 blue light special yet!!
That reminds me of one of the best commercials I have ever seen:
Oh ship!!!!
I check out BaT everyday and prices are soft with a lots of passes. There term “Bid To”Gooding was a total bloodbath. I can't imagine the angry calls they were getting. A lot of cars sold 50% less than their estimates.
Pebble Beach Auctions 2023 | Gooding & Company
To browse a preview, please visit goodingco.com. Gooding & Company, the official auction house of the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, is proud to announce its presentation of the highly anticipated Pebble Beach Auctions. The Auctions, taking place on August 18 and 19 at the Parc du Concours...
How can you tell a seller their car sold for $500,000 less than you gave them an estimate on?
And they seriously thought they were getting over $125,000 for a 230SL?
View attachment 172589
Bad time to sell. Maybe a good time to buy.
As was the Carmague for $67,500 and the Homologation SLC for $95k. But a 575 Superamerica for $750k?! There must be something special about that example.
maw
I watched a few of the auctions last weekend, you guys are correct about the sub $100k cars, sales did not go well. Its the same situation in Europe.
But the upper market cars are on fire with few exceptions. I think its because of investors Investing in assets that can be converted into cash in different currencies or shipped to where its worth more.
But the upper market cars are on fire with few exceptions. I think its because of investors Investing in assets that can be converted into cash in different currencies or shipped to where its worth more.
There will never be a cheap Ferrari 250GTO. Super rare, super valuable cars will always be super rare and super valuable. I've seen V12 E-Types and 79 911 SC's bounce up and down a few times since I started taking an interest in them (late 80's).
I think when (maybe never?) we see the Porsche market softening that might be a big turning point. They are great cars I'm sure but I think there is also a lot of hype, and fantastic marketing of that brand over the years. Ferrari is in a class all by itself. It was never an affordable car and never will be. The folks who buy them are simply immune to the plebeian problems of the proletariat
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So it sounds like cheaper, luxury goods, like watches, handbags, and some $100,000 cars are no longer experiencing bubble inflating prices. Call this the bust of plebeian grade luxuries. At the same time, it sounds like the super esoteric luxury stuff, like art and 7 to 8 figure cars are still high in demand.
I wonder what the boat / yacht market is doing? @gerryvz ?
Seems that even plebeian cars are not feeling the love, either:
2000 Mercedes-Benz E430 w/64k Miles For Sale | The MB Market
RNM @ $6500. Even the low odo buyer were missing from this one.
Dan
2000 Mercedes-Benz E430 w/64k Miles For Sale | The MB Market
RNM @ $6500. Even the low odo buyer were missing from this one.
Dan
OK fair enough but I'm not sure $6500 is plebeian grade. Plebeians were average working citizens of Rome – farmers, bakers, builders or craftsmen. Maybe $6500 is slave-grade luxury.
Compared to something that would be in a Gooding auction, for example. And $6500 for a (used) car these days borders on being a beater.OK fair enough but I'm not sure $6500 is plebeian grade. Plebeians were average working citizens of Rome – farmers, bakers, builders or craftsmen. Maybe $6500 is slave-grade luxury.
Dan
Said beater... I feel like no reserve as a seller is just asking for it right now.
bringatrailer.com
maw
1991 Mercedes-Benz 560SEL
Bid for the chance to own a 1991 Mercedes-Benz 560SEL at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #117,825.
maw
Someone made a good purchase.Said beater... I feel like no reserve as a seller is just asking for it right now.
1991 Mercedes-Benz 560SEL
Bid for the chance to own a 1991 Mercedes-Benz 560SEL at auction with Bring a Trailer, the home of the best vintage and classic cars online. Lot #117,825.
maw
Dan
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