Used car values

[Kyiv]

Dave or Gerry, if there's a thread that covers this topic, I apologize, but I couldn't find it

I'm 10k mi over on my leased Wrangler. Lease ends in a few weeks.

Years ago (like many-many years ago) towards the end of the lease, I sold a Honda to Carmax for $2k above residual value. Ever since I've been checking, towards the end of each lease, if there's a profit to be made. In late March/early April 2021, with 4-5k LESS miles on the odometer, Carvana apprised my Jeep at $36,500 (residual is about $39k). Some time in May appraisal went up to $42,500 and today, with 4-5k more miles on the odometer it's been appraised at $44k $7,5k/20% appreciation in about 2 months

I looked, 2018 Wrangler Rubicons with around 44,000 miles are selling $50k on Carvana. MSRP when new was $54k. I've heard about automotive computers shortage, but who in their right mind pays $4k less then new price for a 3+ year old vehicle with close to 50,000 miles on the odometer?? I'm guessing this trend cuts across all auto segments to one degree or another.

 

[emerydc8]

I read this article last week about used car prices driving inflation.

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"[P]rices of used vehicles on the month jumped 21% YoY."

 

[Gatorblue92]

Check on Vroom as well. Out of curiosity I got a quote from both them and Carvana for my 2020 F150 I bought last summer for $41k and both were offering between $47-49k for the truck now. Sounds like a great deal but I couldn't get something to replace it without paying thru the nose. The used truck market is literally insane at the moment.

 

[JAB12]

This situation is very real across most car marque segments. In the Porsche world it is absolutely pure insanity.

I’d say if you have the opportunity to sell the car to your advantage, do it. Good luck!

 

[Kyiv]

Check on Vroom as well. Out of curiosity I got a quote from both them and Carvana for my 2020 F150 I bought last summer for $41k and both were offering between $47-49k for the truck now. Sounds like a great deal but I couldn't get something to replace it without paying thru the nose. The used truck market is literally insane at the moment.

What I'm really curious, is who the hell (in my particular case) pays nearly MSRP for a 3 year old Wrangler with close to 50,000 miles on the odometer??? Perhaps a case could be made for Porches, which are of relatively limited production, special cars, but the damn Wrangler that sells 200k units annually??

@JAB12, are 3 year old, non-specialty 911s with 50,000 miles sell for MSRP these days?

 

[gsxr]

Are 2021 Wranglers NLA / OOS? That would boost the value of used ones substantially.

Before selling it, make sure you can obtain the replacement you want at an acceptable price.

Shortages are hitting all sorts of weird segments. Today I heard something about rental car fleets downsized over the past year, and now in certain locations rentals are looney priced. For example, rumor of $500/day in some areas of Hawai'i. Dunno if that's accurate or not. Oh, and if you want a customizable HP business PC before Xmas, order it yesterday and cross your fingers & toes.

 

[JAB12]

@kiev Porsche evolved the 911 model series in 2020 launching a new design called the 992. Any ‘20 MY sub 10k miles will sell for msrp +\- $5k with exceptions.

Older (3 year old per your example) 911s of the GT3 class again sub 10k miles are selling OVER msrp and by a lot! This is primarily due to Porsche AG’s inability to supply the current demand and the huge delays on delivery of past orders.

I know that Wranglers have a deep following but cannot comment as I am not eduxated enough on them.

 

[Gatorblue92]

What I'm really curious, is who the hell (in my particular case) pays nearly MSRP for a 3 year old Wrangler with close to 50,000 miles on the odometer??? Perhaps a case could be made for Porches, which are of relatively limited production, special cars, but the damn Wrangler that sells 200k units annually??

@JAB12, are 3 year old, non-specialty 911s with 50,000 miles sell for MSRP these days?

I think its largely due to the lack of availability for new vehicles at the moment. I actually went into my office last week for the first time in a year which is across from a Ford dealer which typically has several hundred vehicles in stock and the lot was nearly empty.

 

[Duh_Vinci]

…a Ford dealer which typically has several hundred vehicles in stock and the lot was nearly empty.

Precisely! Local Purvis Ford, just drive by on Fri to avoid the accident, have not taken that route in months nearly empty parking lot!!! Few used pieces, but ghost town otherwise!

 

[svhamelly]

Are 2021 Wranglers NLA / OOS? That would boost the value of used ones substantially.

Before selling it, make sure you can obtain the replacement you want at an acceptable price.

Shortages are hitting all sorts of weird segments. Today I heard something about rental car fleets downsized over the past year, and now in certain locations rentals are looney priced. For example, rumor of $500/day in some areas of Hawai'i. Dunno if that's accurate or not. Oh, and if you want a customizable HP business PC before Xmas, order it yesterday and cross your fingers & toes.

It is a alternate universe kind of weird right now... I'm planning a trip to Pittsburgh this summer... I tried several different rental car companies... the big ones (Budget, Hertz, Avis, Enterprise... and you know most of these compete against each other while being owned by the same parent companies)... Some didn't even have cars available for the weekend I wanted (not a holiday weekend). I landed on Hertz and the compact - full size cars and all SUVs were outrageously priced... I got a Camaro SS Convertible for $100/day... the compact cars were going for $133/day.

Looking to replace my Nissan Frontier soon, stopped at Honda dealer to look at Ridgeline... they had a 3 year old one with 58k miles for $34k and they had 2 2021s with ZERO miles for $38k... who would pick the used one??? Oh and 2 Honda dealers I've been to recently had NO Ridgelines... but if you want a sedan/minivan/SUV the lots are overflowing.

 

[Kyiv]

In late March/early April 202, with 4-5k LESS miles on the odometer, Carvana apprised my Jeep at $36,500 (residual is about $39k). Some time in May appraisal went up to $42,500 and today [June 12th], with 4-5k more miles on the odometer it's been appraised at $44k $7,5k/20% appreciation in about 2 months

Vroom is now, June 28th is giving me $46k. +$2k in 2 weeks. Nucking futs! I honestly feel sorry for whomever ends up paying new sticker price for a 39 months old Jeep with 45,000 miles....

 

[JC220]

Dont know about you guys but things are getting crazy here too. Steel prices, timber prices, used cars and even puppies are all expensive as frig. Everything has just got super expensive and every trade is super busy at the same time....... Will the bubble burst soon? I hope so before a bigger collapse comes. Things cannot continue as they are, it is absurd.

 

[JAB12]

@kiev Take it and run!

 

[Kyiv]

Started trying to sell a car to carvana/vroom almost 6 months ago, and my Jeep is still sitting in my driveway!! Took ages and multiple applications and phone calls to get to a stage where they (Vroom) have the title to my car and only need to pick the car up. Well, 3 weeks and pick up is not yet done and no one - Vroom or "logistics" company - knows anything. Nor do they care. Total comedy. Not concerned, but annoyed to no end.

Was out of United States for almost 3 months. Came back and submitted online order to reinstate my internet - have all the necessary equipment. System responded that I need an installation appointment. Spoke to 2 different numbnuts in customer service that assured me that an "installation" appointment is required to restart the internet. Aha, ok... Of course internet magically reappeared within an hour of my online order, so I cancelled the outstanding installation appointment under the pretense that I need to reschedule but don't get know when. I've been enjoying free (since "installation" appointment never happened) internet for the last 2 months

Perhaps I should just tell vroom that they already have my car and get paid?

How is this omnipresent imbecility possible?

 

[Jlaa]

Started trying to sell a car to carvana/vroom almost 6 months ago, and my Jeep is still sitting in my driveway!! Took ages and multiple applications and phone calls to get to a stage where they (Vroom) have the title to my car and only need to pick the car up. Well, 3 weeks and pick up is not yet done and no one - Vroom or "logistics" company - knows anything. Nor do they care. Total comedy. Not concerned, but annoyed to no end.

Was out of United States for almost 3 months. Came back and submitted online order to reinstate my internet - have all the necessary equipment. System responded that I need an installation appointment. Spoke to 2 different numbnuts in customer service that assured me that an "installation" appointment is required to restart the internet. Aha, ok... Of course internet magically reappeared within an hour of my online order, so I cancelled the outstanding installation appointment under the pretense that I need to reschedule but don't get know when. I've been enjoying free (since "installation" appointment never happened) internet for the last 2 months

Perhaps I should just tell vroom that they already have my car and get paid?

How is this omnipresent imbecility possible?

View attachment 140768

I feel like this is an issue with processes and logistics. The bigger the organization or the faster the organization grows, the more bandaids are put in place just to "hold things together" for the time being. In every company I've ever worked at, to soup-to-nuts-customer-experience processes have always been held together with duct tape and bandaids.

Vroom probably grew way too fast.
Your Internet company is probably just ossified - not enough competition.

Marketing is always way far ahead of the the process as well. The bigger the delta, the bigger we set up the customer for disappointment. The number of companies with processes that work so incredibly well that they translate into fabulous customer experiences 99% of the time seems to be incredibly stupendously rare.

Even some companies who have fabulous customer experience can get let down by little details or their suppliers.

For example - Discount Tire has fabulous customer care (thanks @gsxr for putting me on to them!) After being unhappy with a set of Michelins that I bought three months ago, DT instantly agreed to take them back and ship me new Continentals, gratis, and they also sent me call tags for the by-now-used Michelins. Every single CSR I've emailed and talked to has been SPECTACULAR (waaaay better than Tire Rack BTW - never buying from TR ever again given their indifferent CSR attitudes). However, I'm still let down because:

- It takes forever to get a CSR on the phone with DT
- FEDEX, who DT uses, is f*cking up left and right
- Two rear tires were supposed to arrive on Friday. Only one arrived.
- Then, the 2nd was promised to arrive Sat. Nothing. Then promised to arrive Sunday. Nothing.
- Now the 2nd tire is seemingly lost in the ether. No ETA. Put a Trace on it - nothing.
- Fedex CSR hung up on me in the process.

- FEDEX still effing up.
- Two front tires, which left Sacramento for SF (very close) on Tues, were promised to arrive Wed.
- Whoops, delayed to Fri
- Whoops, delayed to Sat
- Whoops, delayed to Mon
- Whoops, delayed to Tues .... ad nauseum.


BTW one company I have always had fabulous customer experience with for 25+ years --- Charles Schwab.
Another company which I always have great experiences with AND I am impressed that they can do this given their size - Costco.
Another company which I have had very good customer experience with - First Republic Bank.

There are zero technology companies that I would put in this "good cust experience" bucket.

 

[ace10]

Maybe Vroom is just circling the drain like Zillow?

How Zillow Closing Its Home-Flipping Division Will Cause Long-Term Brand Damage | Entrepreneur

The company's $540 million loss was just the tip of the iceberg.

www.entrepreneur.com

 

[Jlaa]

Maybe Vroom is just circling the drain like Zillow?

How Zillow Closing Its Home-Flipping Division Will Cause Long-Term Brand Damage | Entrepreneur

The company's $540 million loss was just the tip of the iceberg.

www.entrepreneur.com

Seems, again, that tech marketing got waaaaay ahead of actual product. Kind of like Elizabeth Holmes / Theranos. We Americans are great at marketing, but really lousy at ensuring the product matches the marketing, particularly in companies who stake their reputation on innovation vs. execution.

I have quite often been satisfied with companies that focus on execution. Sees Candies, Fruit of the Loom, Brooks running shoes, etc.

 

[Kyiv]

Every single CSR I've emailed and talked to has been SPECTACULAR

Will use DT from now on!!

FEDEX, who DT uses, is f*cking up left and right
- Two rear tires were supposed to arrive on Friday. Only one arrived.
- Then, the 2nd was promised to arrive Sat. Nothing. Then promised to arrive Sunday. Nothing.
- Now the 2nd tire is seemingly lost in the ether. No ETA. Put a Trace on it - nothing.
- Fedex CSR hung up on me in the process.

- FEDEX still effing up.
- Two front tires, which left Sacramento for SF (very close) on Tues, were promised to arrive Wed.
- Whoops, delayed to Fri
- Whoops, delayed to Sat
- Whoops, delayed to Mon
- Whoops, delayed to Tues .... ad nauseum.

Tell me about it. Totally incompetent imbeciles. Soviet Union's postal service reincarnation.

My sportline LCA were shipped to me by FedEx. Scheduled delivery was for Friday, next day after Thanksgiving. On Wednesday tracking showed UPDATED scheduled delivery - a day earlier, on Thanksgiving!!! Lo and behold, early am on Thursday (Thanksgiving) tracking says "on vehicle out for delivery". I'm thinking no fing way, so I call FedEx. The advanced multi-million $ AI System assures me that "out for delivery" is indeed the case and tried to prevent me from summoning a live agent because "the agent will NOT have any additional information". Of course the agent does and quickly tells me no delivery today

Another company which I always have great experiences with AND I am impressed that they can do this given their size - Costco.

I just recently became a Costco member, after my local Walmart's rapid visible decline and degradation. Zoo trips so get tiresome after a while too. Costco is very nice indeed. It's what a typical supermarket in Kiev looks and feels like.

However!!! I took my new used car for a tire inspection. Explained to a face maimed by the intellect at a counter that I just bought the car and to insect the tires for abnormal wear). If they are fine, asked to balance them. Before he left, I reminded to not balance them if they appear to have abnormal wear and to talk to me, because I'll order winter tires then. Ok? Ok!

An hour later they are telling me that "tires are fine, here are the keys, bye". I was with my son and he/we stared though the window into the work area. My car was raised on a lift to a knee level and only thread depth was measured. That's it. When pressed, I was told in that tail-between-legs passive aggressive manner that 1st: you did not asked for balancing then, 2nd: "you don't need balancing, tires are fine". I'm convinced, that in his previous life, this "Michelin certified something or other" being was a mechanic at Patrice Lumumba collective farm #1234, in Ural region, USSR circa 1972 . Today he's reincarnation works at a Costco in Hudson, Ohio

I feel like this is an issue with processes and logistics.

My guess, is that first and foremost it's a human factor. The people you speak to are, for one or another reason, intellectually are not too far off from an infusoria slipper

 

[Jlaa]

Will use DT from now on!!


Tell me about it. Totally incompetent imbeciles. Soviet Union's postal service reincarnation.

My sportline LCA were shipped to me by FedEx. Scheduled delivery was for Friday, next day after Thanksgiving. On Wednesday tracking showed UPDATED scheduled delivery - a day earlier, on Thanksgiving!!! Lo and behold, early am on Thursday (Thanksgiving) tracking says "on vehicle out for delivery". I'm thinking no fing way, so I call FedEx. The advanced multi-million $ AI System assures me that "out for delivery" is indeed the case and tried to prevent me from summoning a live agent because "the agent will NOT have any additional information". Of course the agent does and quickly tells me no delivery today

TELL ME ABOUT IT. I GOT THIS SAME EXACT SUPER FRUSTRATING MESSAGE. Like c'mon, customers are not idiots. They know you are purposely trying to get them off the phone.

And of course, as you experienced, the agent DID have more information!

 

[gsxr]

TELL ME ABOUT IT. I GOT THIS SAME EXACT SUPER FRUSTRATING MESSAGE. Like c'mon, customers are not idiots. They know you are purposely trying to get them off the phone.

Call avoidance is an important metric to most all companies. They'll do anything to avoid phone calls that connect a customer to a live agent/CSR, or at least reduce these absolutely as much as possible. One of the more recent pushes is to offer "chat" instead, where a CSR can message multiple customers simultaneously, and there's less of an issue with accents if the CSR is offshore or nearshore.

Edit: I think this makes for a terrible customer experience and is a really, really bad idea in the long term. Which is why you find so few companies, in any business segment, that actually have good customer support.

 

[daantjie]

Working in Logistics I can tell you it's always the first place a company tries to slash costs, because see it's just transport/warehouse, right, surely we can cut those monkeys out of the works!? Until the crap hits the fan, like this current Covid mess, now folks are sitting up and paying attention to the Supply Chain. But as usual we have short memories and it'll be rinse repeat I'm afraid.

 

[maw1124]

Yeah, this is the world we’re in. The “lease everything” merry go round stops when there are no new cars to lease (chip shortage due to Covid).

My wife is an auto exec and I have too many Benz dealer friends. No one has any new cars. Read that again. NO ONE HAS ANY NEW CARS. So, I haven’t told her that it’ll probably make more sense for her to buy her leased car that she has barely driven the last 2 years because the market value will grossly exceed the residual. Why trade that profit into the company, for some car you want that they don’t have? She doesn’t want to hear that because the car just isn’t great and neither of us want to drive it much less own it, even though it’s one of the best her current employer makes.

And Covid isn’t going anywhere in the countries where these chips are made — or so we are led to believe. China is sticking to its quasi lock downs, either for Covid or competitive advantage reasons (cripple the world that needs what you make by not making it — nothing beats a good excuse).

So lease end day will come, the car will be worth several thousand more than the residual, she’ll not want to buy it but I will just to flip it, she’ll moan and groan while we pocket several grand and… whatever.

It‘s all just weird shit I’d rather not think about. I’m tired of thinking about weird shit.

maw

 

[JAB12]

@maw1124 I'm in your exact position with the wife's car so you're not alone and she's not an auto exec, but she'll come home one day to a different car and new jewelry as a bonus plus a few more digits in her bank account. I bet there won't be a peep said after that. Good luck!

 

[maw1124]

Ha! That's the boat my wife is in... it's not my problem, actually. She can do what she wants -- her car, her money, her experience. I drive old beaters. I was just being illustrative.

maw

 

[kegmankipp]

I feel like this is an issue with processes and logistics. The bigger the organization or the faster the organization grows, the more bandaids are put in place just to "hold things together" for the time being. In every company I've ever worked at, to soup-to-nuts-customer-experience processes have always been held together with duct tape and bandaids.

Vroom probably grew way too fast.
Your Internet company is probably just ossified - not enough competition.

Marketing is always way far ahead of the the process as well. The bigger the delta, the bigger we set up the customer for disappointment. The number of companies with processes that work so incredibly well that they translate into fabulous customer experiences 99% of the time seems to be incredibly stupendously rare.

Even some companies who have fabulous customer experience can get let down by little details or their suppliers.

For example - Discount Tire has fabulous customer care (thanks @gsxr for putting me on to them!) After being unhappy with a set of Michelins that I bought three months ago, DT instantly agreed to take them back and ship me new Continentals, gratis, and they also sent me call tags for the by-now-used Michelins. Every single CSR I've emailed and talked to has been SPECTACULAR (waaaay better than Tire Rack BTW - never buying from TR ever again given their indifferent CSR attitudes). However, I'm still let down because:

- It takes forever to get a CSR on the phone with DT
- FEDEX, who DT uses, is f*cking up left and right
- Two rear tires were supposed to arrive on Friday. Only one arrived.
- Then, the 2nd was promised to arrive Sat. Nothing. Then promised to arrive Sunday. Nothing.
- Now the 2nd tire is seemingly lost in the ether. No ETA. Put a Trace on it - nothing.
- Fedex CSR hung up on me in the process.

- FEDEX still effing up.
- Two front tires, which left Sacramento for SF (very close) on Tues, were promised to arrive Wed.
- Whoops, delayed to Fri
- Whoops, delayed to Sat
- Whoops, delayed to Mon
- Whoops, delayed to Tues .... ad nauseum.


BTW one company I have always had fabulous customer experience with for 25+ years --- Charles Schwab.
Another company which I always have great experiences with AND I am impressed that they can do this given their size - Costco.
Another company which I have had very good customer experience with - First Republic Bank.

There are zero technology companies that I would put in this "good cust experience" bucket.

My FedEx ground driver let it slip that they only have 80ish employees at the Sac hub that used to have 600+. Most quit and the new employees are mainly brain dead/less.

He said it would be a comedy of errors, but it is so bad, there is no comedy involved anymore.

 

[Jlaa]

My FedEx ground driver let it slip that they only have 80ish employees at the Sac hub that used to have 600+. Most quit and the new employees are mainly brain dead/less.

He said it would be a comedy of errors, but it is so bad, there is no comedy involved anymore.

OMG this explains my comedy of errors with Fedex! ALL MY ITEMS are coming (or more precisely, getting lost) through Sacramento!!!!

 

[Jlaa]

My FedEx ground driver let it slip that they only have 80ish employees at the Sac hub that used to have 600+. Most quit and the new employees are mainly brain dead/less.

He said it would be a comedy of errors, but it is so bad, there is no comedy involved anymore.

BTW - I took a peak at the local Sacramento subreddits. OMG. . So much anger towards the company wrt Roseville/Sac hub.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Sacramento/comments/pmcsd8

 

[svhamelly]

Ha! That's the boat my wife is in... it's not my problem, actually. She can do what she wants -- her car, her money, her experience. I drive old beaters. I was just being illustrative.

maw

I've never leased a car and probably never will... I like to buy and drive until used up... currently averaging 7 years ownership over the last 8 cars. Never could understand having a perpetual car payment (lease).

My brother's wife leases everything... her requirement is she always wants a car that is under warranty... she's never needed any warranty work done on a car in the last 20 years.

My wife bought/paid for a 2018 Subaru with 285 miles on it... she has racked up a whopping 9000 miles on it since 2018... she loves it and doesn't see herself buying another car for many years.

 

[maw1124]

My E5E is my most recent car, so that's over 11 years average on mine. I'm the same way, can't wrap my mind around a perpetual negative annuity. But I'm a finance guy, so I'll own that sickness. I'm actually curious to see what the market v residual value for her car will be when the time comes. And while I'd love for her to come around to my manner of thinking (she can always drive one of mine and eliminate the negative annuity), I know who I married and don't expect that to happen. It's no biggie, really. The upside is her lease payment keeps her car off my mental real estate, so it all works.

Subaru are great cars by the way. If one enters this household it'll be because I bought a WRX. Currently the Allroad feeds my rally car fix.

maw

 

[gsxr]

Leasing makes sense (sort of) for people who are unable to do any DIY repairs/maintenance on their vehicles, and want a relatively fixed monthly cost for CaaS (Car as a Service).

Financially this only makes sense if the lease terms are favorable - near zero down, reasonable monthly cost, and no concerns about exceeding the mileage limits. If a large down payment is required, and/or if there are other hefty fees, that changes the scenario. This also assumes a relatively low lease payment on an entry/mid level vehicle. Paying a ton for a luxury vehicle also changes the scenario. Likely makes more sense to lease basic transportation, than to lease a really nice car?

 

[ace10]

I have to run to the P-car dealer for a part today. Thought I'd peruse the used car listings, to see if there's anything interesting on hand.

Used Cars In Chantilly VA | Porsche Center

Shop our selection of luxury and premium used cars in Chantilly. Schedule a test drive, get a trade-in price, apply for financing and more all online...

www.porschechantilly.com

Nope.

A Merc W220 for $9K
A 12 model year old Rav4
A couple of Heeps
And a bunch of other crap I wouldn't give a second look to on the street.

 

[gerryvz]

I can't wait until the supply chain issues ease in 2023. Used car prices are going to plummet as the market gets flooded with utter crap. But among the crap, there should be some interesting pickins as well.

 

[PJmak]

I've never leased a car and probably never will... I like to buy and drive until used up... currently averaging 7 years ownership over the last 8 cars. Never could understand having a perpetual car payment (lease).

My brother's wife leases everything... her requirement is she always wants a car that is under warranty... she's never needed any warranty work done on a car in the last 20 years.

My wife bought/paid for a 2018 Subaru with 285 miles on it... she has racked up a whopping 9000 miles on it since 2018... she loves it and doesn't see herself buying another car for many years.

I leased a 2018 Volvo xc90 for three years and then bought it out. Is really not much different than financing if you get a good deal on the lease and honestly its easier to find a good lease deal than it is to finance.

I had to bring it in from Kansas. Here in California they laughed at me when I asked them to match the deal Volvo dealer gave me from Kansas.

Walnut Creek dealer basically kicked me out of their dealership lol.

Id lease a car again if its the right price but only if I was planning to buy it out.

 

[ace10]

I can't wait until the supply chain issues ease in 2023. Used car prices are going to plummet as the market gets flooded with utter crap. But among the crap, there should be some interesting pickins as well.

A super-duper smart, totally-in-control-of-his-faculties, definitely-not-pooping-in-his-pants politician recently compared the supply chain crisis to the scarcity of Beanie Babies in the '90s.

So just deal with it, mmmmkay?

 

[gerryvz]

A super-duper smart, totally-in-control-of-his-faculties, definitely-not-pooping-in-his-pants politician recently compared the supply chain crisis to the scarcity of Beanie Babies in the '90s.

So just deal with it, mmmmkay?

Are you talking about Joe Biden?