Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

[JC220]

Hi All,

I have a couple of thirsty benzes as most members do too and the thought constantly bugs me as to what is to come of fuel pricing and availabilty in future years? Say 10 or 20 years from now.

These thoughts were more troubling on hearing on the radio today whilst driving my high miler diesel - that Jaguar are going all electric by 2025. These claims are getting closer for each manufacturer!!

It is interesting that at least this side of the pond since Covid fuel prices at the pumps have fallen and stayed down since March last year. Heating oil is the lowest prices in decades pretty much. We have not seen such a sudden and sustained drop in recent times as far I recall. This as far as I am aware is mostly because with people in lock down fuel simply wasnt being consumed so the whole supply and demand scales turned and prices dropped.

Will this same concept carry through when electric cars become more and more prevelant? Or will the filling stations jack up pricing to make up the difference? Will governments Tax fossil fuels to death? Will there be caveats for classic vehicles? 50 odd litres of engines around me I do worry somewhat. Mad Max could become reality

 

[Glen]

With the millions of ICE cars around, it will be decades before gasoline goes away but I think we'll see gas pumps slowly replaced with chargers as demand continues to fall. I think for the next decade or two, gas prices will remain lowish but at some point, as the supply side adjusts to the lower demand, ie fewer suppliers, prices will go up.

 

[alabbasi]

I have a couple of thirsty benzes as most members do too and the thought constantly bugs me as to what is to come of fuel pricing and availabilty in future years? Say 10 or 20 years from now.

These thoughts were more troubling on hearing on the radio today whilst driving my high miler diesel - that Jaguar are going all electric by 2025. These claims are getting closer for each manufacturer!!

It is interesting that at least this side of the pond since Covid fuel prices at the pumps have fallen and stayed down since March last year. Heating oil is the lowest prices in decades pretty much. We have not seen such a sudden and sustained drop in recent times as far I recall. This as far as I am aware is mostly because with people in lock down fuel simply wasnt being consumed so the whole supply and demand scales turned and prices dropped.

Will this same concept carry through when electric cars become more and more prevelant? Or will the filling stations jack up pricing to make up the difference? Will governments Tax fossil fuels to death? Will there be caveats for classic vehicles? 50 odd litres of engines around me I do worry somewhat. Mad Max could become reality

My theory on this, with particular focus on the UK government is that it's a strategy to levy additional taxes, using the common good as the excuse. It's an old trick that's been done a number times to tax 99.9% of people, suggesting that they need to switch to some other vastly less popular technology as it will benefit the enviroment, when it's really to raise taxes for 10-15 year on people indirectly as this is how long it would usually take for the policy to fully adopt.

IIRC. the UK gov did they same by encouraging people to buy diesel over petrol 20 years ago until everybody did. Now it's electric. I live in Texas and we've had severe storms in the last few days. The extra load on the grid has forced state wide rolling blackouts so that the grid can cope. What do you think will happen to the infrastructure once everybody plugged their car in?

 

[gsxr]

With the millions of ICE cars around, it will be decades before gasoline goes away but I think we'll see gas pumps slowly replaced with chargers as demand continues to fall.

Totally agree. Gasoline & diesel going away (even becoming a minority) is decades away, and that assumes the electric technology *and* infrastructure continue to improve/expand at a rapid pace.

.... Now it's electric. I live in Texas and we've had severe storms in the last few days. The extra load on the grid has forced state wide rolling blackouts so that the grid can cope. What do you think will happen to the infrastructure once everybody plugged their car in?

The recent disasters in TX highlight the weak point. The existing infrastructure literally can't even keep the heat on when things (like arctic air) go south. And they want everyone to have a plug-in car in the garage? Powered by wind and solar? It would be hilarious if they weren't dead serious. Gonna need some new-generation nuclear powerplants to make the electric dreams a reality.

 

[MB V8]

Well Al you ask a very good question about the infrastructure when everybody plugs their car in and if you give me a second I will re-read my copy of The New Green Deal or The Green Deal...or whatever it's called...because I'm sure the answer is in there. Oops political satire??

 

[Kyiv]

Just a few days ago I listened to a fresh, 3 hour conversation between Joe Rogan and Elon Mask. Mask said that fossil fuels will be around for a foreseeable future. His point was that the amount of batteries needed to be produced to replace American and european ICE fleest is "gigaton shit load". No matter how fast battery production is rising, it's still a couple of
decades away before terminal capacity is reached, and even after this point will be reached, ICE will still be there. Anyways, that's my takeaway

 

[mikeym]

Just a few days ago I listened to a fresh, 3 hour conversation between Joe Rogan and Elon Mask. Mask said that fossil fuels will be around for a foreseeable future. His point was that the amount of batteries needed to be produced to replace American and european ICE fleest is "gigaton shit load". No matter how fast battery production is rising, it's still a couple of
decades away before terminal capacity is reached, and even after this point will be reached, ICE will still be there. Anyways, that's my takeaway

Taxation policy will have big impact on fuel prices and cost of ownership. I can see rising prices on reg fees for ICE and extra charges to take your polluter clunker to city centers like they have in London.
Over here in the great state of Soviet Washington, I can see a $10/day levy to go by CHAZ.

 

[szvook]

This reminds me, I need to get some gas and try to push the gas pedal through the floor again...

 

[alabbasi]

Well Al you ask a very good question about the infrastructure when everybody plugs their car in and if you give me a second I will re-read my copy of The New Green Deal or The Green Deal...or whatever it's called...because I'm sure the answer is in there. Oops political satire??

I've not read the Green New Deal but I can tell you that there's no such thing as government creating new jobs by giving companies money to make something that nobody wants, or by giving millionaires tax cuts so that they can magically create jobs. Only one thing creates jobs in a free economy and that's demand.

Do I think that it's a bad thing to come up with ideas to make us less dependent on oil, especially foreign oil? ABSOLTELY NOT, If for anything so that we don't have to protect people that we'd never consider doing business with if it wasn't for the oil.

Putting the preverbal thumb on the scale before sorting out the infrastructure or the technology that allows for an electric car to be charged in the same time that it takes to fill a gas tank is just a means to tax people who can never ever wait for 7 hours to charge their batteries, or afford a brand new car. Once you overload the infrastructure, politicians will turn on a dime and give you hundreds of reasons for why you're such a terrible person for owning one.

IMO, it will be a transitional technology to something else (hydrogen, fuel cell, or whatever is more practical) and actions taken by governments in Europe are destroying innovation by forcing car companies to throw all their R&D behind electric instead of coming up with a range of alternative to IC cars. It might be as simple as a more fuel efficient IC engine or hybrid. In 1995, you'd be lucky to get 35mpg from a diesel mid size car, yet a BMW 3 series with the small diesel (not available in the US of course) can now get 80mpg. How far away could we be from a 200mpg car that reduces emissions without flipping everything else on its head?

If we really wanted to solve this problem, why have we resisted mass transit for decades? If I really have to be in a self driving vehicle, can't I go 200mph sitting in a lounge with my 68 Cadillac a few train carriages behind me?

Just a few days ago I listened to a fresh, 3 hour conversation between Joe Rogan and Elon Mask. Mask said that fossil fuels will be around for a foreseeable future. His point was that the amount of batteries needed to be produced to replace American and european ICE fleest is "gigaton shit load". No matter how fast battery production is rising, it's still a couple of
decades away before terminal capacity is reached, and even after this point will be reached, ICE will still be there. Anyways, that's my takeaway

I wonder what 3rd world country will be tasked with recycling all these batteries?

Rant off.

 

[Kyiv]

Looking at a current situation, raises an analogy to a Windows Vista machine that has been continuously up for a long time, lagging and bugging out from the 25 heavy programs opened and running, with several new ones being installing in parallel, while a GPU driver is updating. It seems to me, that a Green New Deal would be akin to triggering a Windows update on top of everything. And it's not necessarily that Windows does not need to be updated, it's the state of things as whole...

 

[gerryvz]

If you look at Germany. They have made a lot of progress in ramping up their wind and solar power totals and closing down nuclear, coal and gas fired plants. But even they can’t come anywhere near eliminating it or getting near full renewable power. Hence the controversial Nordstream pipeline from Russia, which makes Germany very very dependent on Russia for a lot of its energy.

This whole idea of purely renewable power is 100% a pipe dream. Germany has shown it. And now Texas shows that it is not currently practical or sustainable in certain conditions.

Nope, nuclear, coal and fossil fuels ain’t going away any time soon. At least 50 years, likely 75-100.

unfortunately, reality smacks many “environmentalist pipe dream” plans in the face. People are not going to put up with crappy service, rolling blackouts, and other problems in the name of “sustainable” green energy.

 

[Bogeyman]

"People are not going to put up with crappy service, rolling blackouts, and other problems in the name of “sustainable” green energy."

Assuming people have a choice.

 

[ace10]

My wife's PHEV has been giving her problems for about half of last year. It's seven model years old. Brought it in to dealer in October. They did nothing. Couldn't even find a problem, despite a well-documented list of symptoms I provided.
Brought it in again in mid December as the car was undrivable.
They had it for two weeks and could find nothing. Tech suggested new spark plugs. (not joking)
Spoke with service mgr and asked him to take it out. He did, and was nearly stranded. Limped it back to the store.
The car needs a new drive battery. Took two weeks of testing for Stuttgart to approve the repair. This was a month ago.
We are still waiting on an ETA for the replacement battery pack. Best guess is one to three months.

So all in, the car will be down for three to five months. For a battery problem. Which is covered by warranty.
There's an $85K Cayenne loaner sitting in my garage. Figure $75 day for that. For the entire duration. The part is somewhere around $25K. And it's two days labor to install.

This one car is now a massive money loser for VAG. Tens of thousands of dollars down the drain. Electrification is surely going to thin the herd of established auto makers.

 

[JC220]

Looking at a current situation, raises an analogy to a Windows Vista machine that has been continuously up for a long time, lagging and bugging out from the 25 heavy programs opened and running, with several new ones being installing in parallel, while a GPU driver is updating. It seems to me, that a Green New Deal would be akin to triggering a Windows update on top of everything. And it's not necessarily that Windows does not need to be updated, it's the state of things as whole...

Have you been on Dave's site too?

 

[gsxr]

If we really wanted to solve this problem, why have we resisted mass transit for decades? If I really have to be in a self driving vehicle, can't I go 200mph sitting in a lounge with my 68 Cadillac a few train carriages behind me?

Mass transit is a separate discussion. It only works for either in-city travel, or longer-distance journeys between cities. And then you need separate transportation at either end (or, walking). Mass transit would be very little help in rural areas.

 

[Kyiv]

People are not going to put up with crappy service, rolling blackouts, and other problems

It could be argued that you just don't people


And, separately,I think many of us are the proverbial dogs that are barking at the caravan.
Headline: How one Texas storm exposed an energy grid unprepared for climate change

How one Texas storm exposed an energy grid unprepared for climate change

Electric grid regulators said the U.S. will have to develop vast supplies of power storage — such as gigantic batteries — that rely on emerging technologies.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[alabbasi]

Mass transit is a separate discussion. It only works for either in-city travel, or longer-distance journeys between cities. And then you need separate transportation at either end (or, walking). Mass transit would be very little help in rural areas.

Mass transit can be intercity or inside a city. I never have to worry about a car visiting any large city in the UK.

If the idea is to solve the issue of pollution, rural areas are probably not the place to look for transportation solutions. Choosing an all or nothing approach vs incremental changes usually yields nothing.

 

[Glen]

re: the Texas grid. Imagine if everyone in Texas had an electric car sitting in their garage and V2G (vehicle to grid) is operational. In such a scenario, there wouldn't be a problem. Now, imagine if the entire country were like this. It's the future. Yes, it'll take decades to get there but it's coming.

And in a perfect world, every country would get onboard and contribute to build a solar array that spanned the equator and connected every grid system together so that power is generated 24/7 and distributed wherever it's needed. Science fiction for sure but just imagine.

 

[Bogeyman]

Wasn't Tesla (the man) working on such a project?

 

[gerryvz]

Two good editorials from this morning’s Wall Street Journal on the Texas energy situation. Sort of reiterates the point I made about renewable energy not being a viable option, and actually being detrimental to grid reliability … especially in stressed or extreme seasonal conditions.

Yeah, I know this is the Wall Street Journal, and not MSNBC or CNN or the New York Times ... but it is worthy and valuable to read and absorb alternative perspectives, based on fact and not emotion.

Definitely read these.

 

[TerryA]

With the millions of ICE cars around, it will be decades before gasoline goes away but I think we'll see gas pumps slowly replaced with chargers as demand continues to fall. I think for the next decade or two, gas prices will remain lowish but at some point, as the supply side adjusts to the lower demand, ie fewer suppliers, prices will go up.

@Glen, In California, I think we will see that much sooner if we don’t get rid of all of the liberals running the state.

Just my $0.02

 

[alabbasi]

And in a perfect world, every country would get onboard and contribute to build a solar array that spanned the equator and connected every grid system together so that power is generated 24/7 and distributed wherever it's needed. Science fiction for sure but just imagine.

Solar presents its own challenges. It's great for those who can afford to install it. But the more people off the grid, the more expensive and less sustainable the grid becomes for the people using it.

 

[Jlaa]

Nope, nuclear, coal and fossil fuels ain’t going away any time soon. At least 50 years, likely 75-100.

To this point, Warren Buffet just disclosed yesterday that his company opened up an 8B USD position in Chevron.

This whole idea of purely renewable power is 100% a pipe dream. Germany has shown it. And now Texas shows that it is not currently practical or sustainable in certain conditions.

I thought the Texas fiasco, though, was more about the non-interconnectedness of their electrical grid with neighboring states such that they cannot "borrow" electricity from other states during their current time of crises. At the same time, my understanding is that too many of their gas wells are now frozen, so they cannot pump either --- a big supply issue.

My wife's PHEV has been giving her problems for about half of last year. It's seven model years old. Brought it in to dealer in October. They did nothing. Couldn't even find a problem, despite a well-documented list of symptoms I provided.
Brought it in again in mid December as the car was undrivable.
They had it for two weeks and could find nothing. Tech suggested new spark plugs. (not joking)

This sounds like your wife has a PHEV that is not manufactured by TOYOTA. I know I know --- people bag on Toyota all the time for being boring to drive and pedestrian and all that, but my goodness, they make some darn reliable transportation machinery.

re: the Texas grid. Imagine if everyone in Texas had an electric car sitting in their garage and V2G (vehicle to grid) is operational. In such a scenario, there wouldn't be a problem. Now, imagine if the entire country were like this. It's the future. Yes, it'll take decades to get there but it's coming. ... And in a perfect world, every country would get onboard and contribute to build a solar array that spanned the equator and connected every grid system together so that power is generated 24/7 and distributed wherever it's needed. Science fiction for sure but just imagine.

I feel like one big area that people overlook is the time it takes to charge batteries and the stability of battery chemistries. Currently it takes HOURS to charge batteries to a full state on a 40-amp 220v home circuit. That can be brought down with even higher voltages (superchargers) and the willingness to compromise on not-a-full-charge ---- but humans are impatient and humans prefer "instantaneous."
Yes there are developments to improve battery charge times ..... and the curiosity in me just wonders.....

.... Are we over looking hydrogen-based electric cars? You can "refill" a car with hydrogen very quickly. And imagine if we took your vision and changed it slightly --- imagine that everyone's solar array "that spanned the equator and connected every grid system" was used to generate electricity to make hydrogen (instead of directly charging, charging, charging, charging, charging batteries). I wonder if that is workable future for electrically run vehicles.

That avoids the grossness of "rare metal / lithium mining" and the toxicity issues with used battery disposal as well.

 

[gerryvz]

"People are not going to put up with crappy service, rolling blackouts, and other problems in the name of “sustainable” green energy."

Assuming people have a choice.

People will have a choice, because we live in a society where choice is rewarded, and the best option wins.

I find it amusing that all of these automakers are pledging to go all-electric by 2025, 2030, etc.

Many of them are going to be backpedalling faster than Joe Biden after his inaugural speech promise of bi-partisanship. They're going to HAVE to continue producing internal-combustion cars and trucks, becauase THAT IS WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEMAND. And the consumer rules. If say, Volvo or Jaguar goes all-electric, consumers will just go elsewhere, to manufacturers who still sell good internal-combustion cars. Trust me on this. There are A LOT of people out there who DO NOT and NEVER WILL want an electric vehicle, or even a hybrid car.

I realize that people in California and some parts of the East Coast are more fully invested in electric cars, because it's the "cool" "green" and "wave of the future cutting edge" thing to do. But unfortunately the West Coast and East Coast do not represent the majority of America. How much were/are Priiiii adopted across America, outside of the coastal states? Because I sure as hell didn't see that many of them when I lived in Texas.

 

[gerryvz]

To this point, Warren Buffet just disclosed yesterday that his company opened up an 8B USD position in Chevron.

He's no dummy. But we know that.

This is the CVX position in my investment account, as of this morning...

 

[alabbasi]

.. Are we over looking hydrogen-based electric cars?

Not in my mind (or as I wrote in #9). I believe that electric will be transitional. Transportation is one of the backbones of commerce and you can't stop commerce for 7 hours to recharge batteries. Not many politicians have had jobs other than politics (or at least for a very long time). I guess that it's easy to come up with ideas that don't consider peoples livelihood when you have a $200k/year tax payer funded income and a giant expense account.

They're going to HAVE to continue producing internal-combustion cars and trucks, becauase THAT IS WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEMAND. And the consumer rules. If say, Volvo or Jaguar goes all-electric, consumers will just go elsewhere, to manufacturers who still sell good internal-combustion cars. Trust me on this. There are A LOT of people out there who DO NOT and NEVER WILL want an electric vehicle, or even a hybrid car.

The US will be somewhat protected from the idiocy that we see in Europe with cities like Berlin and London trying to ban cars completely or make them impossible to afford. These car companies are reacting to legislation in Europe forcing their hand. In my mind, it's a method to raise taxes on people who can't afford to change direction as quickly as these politicians can change the law. Electric cars in London? What are you going to do, run a 200ft extension cord from your house to where your car is parked? This poor guy left his bike parked for 10 minutes to get a Kebab and look what happened

 

[ace10]

This sounds like your wife has a PHEV that is not manufactured by TOYOTA. I know I know --- people bag on Toyota all the time for being boring to drive and pedestrian and all that, but my goodness, they make some darn reliable transportation machinery.

You're really gonna push the woe-is-me poor, poor Toyota narrative on ME?

lolllll

 

[gsxr]

You're really gonna push the woe-is-me poor, poor Toyota narrative on me?

I think it's more "poor Toyota driver, piloting that boring beigemobile..."

 

[ace10]

I think it's more "poor Toyota driver, piloting that boring beigemobile..."

Not one of my Toyotas is beige.

Wait. Unless you count the '04 LC which is a lovely "Sonora gold metallic" lol

 

[ace10]

The point of my story about the troubles with my wife's car is twofold....

FIRST is that battery production and availability is obviously a problem area. At least for older VAG products.
AND second is the cost... we're talking about a warranty repair that is going to exceed the value of the car.

#MakesNoSense



Porsche is shipping Taycans (the BEV model) at a decent clip these days. So they've got access to batteries. But those of us out in the desert aren't really a priority, apparently.

 

[Jlaa]

[Warren Buffet and his co's position in Chevron] no dummy. But we know that.

I mean to be fair, WB's company also has a 25% stake in BYD, which is the Chinese Battery / EV maker ..... so he's got his eye on the future as well.

They're going to HAVE to continue producing internal-combustion cars and trucks, becauase THAT IS WHAT THE PUBLIC WILL CONTINUE TO DEMAND. And the consumer rules.

I don't know (and when I say I "don't know" and I don't that I am passive-aggressively disagreeing) if people are so much continue to DEMAND internal combustion cars as opposed to DEMAND the benefits --- i.e. near instantaneous refuelling, good power/torque, etc. Hydrogen is interesting in that sense.

You're really gonna push the woe-is-me poor, poor Toyota narrative on ME?

lolllll

Yes of course! And I find it so ironic since you are such a huge Toyota Land Cruiser fan ...... that your problematic PHEV is not a Toyota!

I think it's more "poor Toyota driver, piloting that boring beigemobile..."

I admit it. I love driving boring Toyota beigemobiles. It is so stress free. And reliable. And cheap. And did I mention cheap? The greatest luxury is the world is not crazy-ipad-tech on the dash or whiz-bang-quilted-leather --- the greatest luxury in the world is freedom from worry. I mean, to bring this point back to MBs, this is precisely why we stock up on spare parts and NLA MB parts right? Freedom from worry.

FWIW, The #1 selling PHEVs around here have not been Prii for many many years ---- these days, the #1 selling PHEVs have been Hybrid Toyota Highlanders and RAV4s. Mundane family cars.

 

[gerryvz]

I mean to be fair, WB's company also has a 25% stake in BYD, which is the Chinese Battery / EV maker ..... so he's got his eye on the future as well.

A smart investor hedges his/her bets. That's de rigeur. Though I will say that I do not have any investments in EV companies, wind, solar, or battery companies. When the descendents of Solyndra start paying $5.00+ dividends, like CVX does, I'm all over that. Heck, I'm still enjoying the rapid growth of the investment I made in ammunition maker/chemical company Olin Corp back on 4-Jan. Ammunition is where it's at, but I realize this may not be so apparent in the gun-restricted coastal states (mine included).

Again, though, the car companies will follow where the consumer demand takes them. When consumers started going toward the gas guzzler trucks and SUVs, the car companies were right there to fulfill the demand, from boring bland sedans with no power. The car companies were super happy because the trucks were also exempt from CAFE standards, so they had a win-win situation.

The market is ONLY so large for Priiiii and their ilk. Teslas are still largely expensive garage bauble status symbols for rich coastal folk.

And yes, I rather enjoy driving our 2004 Champagne Gold 4Runner.....

 

[Kyiv]

I don't know (and when I say I "don't know" and I don't that I am passive-aggressively disagreeing) if people are so much continue to DEMAND internal combustion cars as opposed to DEMAND the benefits --- i.e. near instantaneous refuelling, good power/torque, etc.

Neatly noted. Tesla has gone from something like 0.3% of US market share to 1%+ in 3 years. If trend continues, Tesla cars will make up 20-30% of new car sales in 10 years. Even if that's too optimistic for Tesla alone, adding other automakers upcoming "Teslas" will almost definitely make that true. 15-20 years out new ICE cars will be like were carbureted vehicles were in the late 80s. In another 20 years, as they get used up (40 years forward) ICE cars, to a large extent will be relics. #nostradamus

instantaneous re-fuelling, is not really needed in 99(?)% of cases for passenger cars for 99% of the people.

 

[Glen]

@Jlaa re: battery charge times, it's really only a factor for long trips. For daily use, so long as the vehicle has a range of 200 miles or so, charge times are irrelevant. An owner can plug in nightly, charging up to 80% and be ready to go anytime. For long trips, it can be an issue unless they have a high end Tesla with 400+ miles of range and access to a Tesla Supercharger.

 

[gsxr]

instantaneous re-fuelling, is not really needed in 99(?)% of cases for passenger cars for 99% of the people.

Refueling (charging) should be a non-issue within a reasonable radius of your home, with some planning, and assuming no unexpected circumstances. What happens if you get stuck in traffic jam for a couple hours with the heater or AC on, and a partial charge? That could kill your battery pack. Hybrids with a backup ICE would help in that scenario.

Refueling becomes a problem when on a road trip anywhere outside a city, off routes that may have charging stations. For example, we (used to) like to visit national parks, which are usually out in the boonies (Yellowstone, Glacier, Moab, Grand Canyon, etc). There's no way to make a trip like that with the current battery pack technology and charging infrastructure. Even a few decades from now, it may not be possible, unless either range increases dramatically and/or charging becomes both more accessible AND faster, along with extended range.

A 600-800 mile (or longer) one-way trip isn't currently practical with a 200 (or 400?!) mile range; and best-case charge time of 60-90 minutes for 100% charge (Tesla Supercharger).

 

[Glen]

@gsxr, Dave this is were Tesla currently has a huge advantage. With their Supercharger network, you can charge to 80% in 30 minutes or so. This will get you to the next Supercharger fairly easily even today. In a decade, if they continue building out the network, it really won't be an issue. And for national parks, it seems to me charging stations can be installed much more easily than a gas station. And once installed, there's no need to refill the tanks.

 

[alabbasi]

Neatly noted. Tesla has gone from something like 0.3% of US market share to 1%+ in 3 years. If trend continues, Tesla cars will make up 20-30% of new car sales in 10 years.

That might be the dot com logic that's led to their valuation which I guess is appropriate for Tesla as it's a technology company and not a car company. Their products are niche and will remain that way because it's unlikely that the majority of consumers are going to want something preparatory with no aftermarket support, that must be repaired by the factory who can turn features like fast charging at will. That's acceptable for an ipad but not a car.

Now that real car manufacturers are investing in electric, I think that you'll find that the Tesla outlook will be less optimistic. The real disruptors are coming and when they do, it will be from China.

For daily use, so long as the vehicle has a range of 200 miles or so, charge times are irrelevant. An owner can plug in nightly, charging up to 80% and be ready to go anytime.

Of course it is. but maybe not for you if you live in the burbs and have a 2-3 car garage. Realistically speaking, people have to account for the exception and not the norm. What about those who park off the street? Charging stations? Ever been to a buccees or a love's and waited 20 minutes for a pump because the family of 4 400lbs people stopped off to buy every junk food item in the store?

Conveniently placed charging stations will be conveniently occupied by people who charged their cars hours ago.

 

[gerryvz]

Neatly noted. Tesla has gone from something like 0.3% of US market share to 1%+ in 3 years. If trend continues, Tesla cars will make up 20-30% of new car sales in 10 years. Even if that's too optimistic for Tesla alone, adding other automakers upcoming "Teslas" will almost definitely make that true. 15-20 years out new ICE cars will be like were carbureted vehicles were in the late 80s. In another 20 years, as they get used up (40 years forward) ICE cars, to a large extent will be relics. #nostradamus

instantaneous re-fuelling, is not really needed in 99(?)% of cases for passenger cars for 99% of the people.

I don't disagree that electric, or hybrid, or hydrogen, cars will be making up a significant percentage of cars in the next 20 years.

To think that Tesla is going to go from 1% of cars to 20-30% of the market in 10 years, is ludicrous. It won't happen. I would be very very surprised to even see them hit 3-4% in the coming years. If you take electric vehicles as a whole? Maybe 10% in the next 10 years. At most. Transitions just don't happen that quickly in something as foundational as the ICE and related infrastructure.

You can't really compare the transition from carburation to fuel injection, because it wasn't as disruptive. Both types of fuel intake distribution used the same fuel, in roughly the same amounts, using the same fuel distribution infrastructure, and thus the transition was a non-issue.

It was like the transition from bias-ply tires to radial tires. Both types rolled on the same roads. It was more or less a seamless transition.

You can't trivialize as fundamental of a transformation from ICE to EV cars. A completely new and parallel infrastructure needs to be built out, or retrofitted into the existing infrastructure. That's not cheap, nor particularly easy, and definitely not particularly rapid. Tesla's supercharger network is very much a bare-bones initial foray into this, but it will need to become UBIQUITOUS and MUCH more scaled. As in having charging stations where gas stations are now.

You think large heavy construction equipment, trucks, and other industrial vehicles (buses, etc.) are going 100% electric? Well, I've seen some good work along these lines. And yes there are hybrid diesel-electric buses that have been around for decades in urban areas. But see how much a cement mixer or a dump-truck benefits from having an electric motor. Or a long-haul diesel locomotive, say Union Pacific or Norfolk Southern. Do you think locomotives hauling 150-plus-car trains are going to stop every hour or two to charge up? Nope.

You've all read about the California high-speed rail project, and its failures, right? It's looking more and more like it will never be built out.

By the way ... I'm not in any way against electric vehicles, hydrogen, Tesla, etc. I just think that people are VASTLY underestimating the amount of change, from numerous vectors, that it is going to take to do this type of transition. The biggest hurdle is going to be consumer sentiment and attitudes. They will change, but it is going to take a long time.

Remember the changeover from incandescent bulbs to various "eco" light bulbs? Some containing mercury and other toxins, and costing many multiples of what an incandescent bulb cost? Many people were buying up all the incandescents they could. Well, it took the price to come down before people got receptive to them. And this wasn't a "major" transition like the ICE to EV thing is. I mean, an LED light bulb still screws into the same socket as an incandescent bulb. Same as mentioned with carburetion to fuel injection, or bias ply tires to radial tires.

But the more that people feel they are being PUSHED into an EV corner, the more many people are going to resist it. And the car companies may have to deal with some harsh realities when it comes to the sales of their "green" vehicles, as a result. And this reality means that they will be manufacturing ICE vehicles for far longer than they are prognosticating.

 

[Jlaa]

instantaneous re-fuelling, is not really needed in 99(?)% of cases for passenger cars for 99% of the people.

@Jlaa re: battery charge times, it's really only a factor for long trips. .... An owner can plug in nightly, charging up to 80% and be ready to go anytime.

What happens if you get stuck in traffic jam for a couple hours with the heater or AC on, and a partial charge? That could kill your battery pack. Hybrids with a backup ICE would help in that scenario.

Refueling becomes a problem when on a road trip anywhere outside a city, off routes that may have charging stations.

I agree, outside of a slew of corner cases like long trips, urban street parking, pickups carrying heavy loads / trailers, RVs, desolate Alaskan environments, etc etc etc that using battery-centric EVs only takes a little foresight and planning.

I will point out though - humans are bad at foresight and planning. If there is a similar non-foresight-required and non-planning-required alternative to battery centric EV technologies, that may ultimately win in the marketplace..... even if less technically advanced.

Film based photography still produces photographs that blows away digital photography in picture quality ..... but digital has taken over because of “instantaneous.” Freedom From Worry (FFW) of storing, developing, and handling film as well as convenience.

FFW. For technological laggards like me, I see no value in paying extra for a daily car if it decreases FFW. The car might have increased levels of “Delight” (more power, more engaging drive, electric silence, feelings of virtue, etc ....) but if FFW is decreased, then this is a mirage of luxury to me.

 

[Glen]

That might be the dot com logic that's led to their valuation which I guess is appropriate for Tesla as it's a technology company and not a car company. Their products are niche and will remain that way because it's unlikely that the majority of consumers are going to want something preparatory with no aftermarket support, that must be repaired by the factory who can turn features like fast charging at will. That's acceptable for an ipad but not a car.

Now that real car manufacturers are investing in electric, I think that you'll find that the Tesla outlook will be less optimistic. The real disruptors are coming and when they do, it will be from China.


Of course it is. but maybe not for you if you live in the burbs and have a 2-3 car garage. Realistically speaking, people have to account for the exception and not the norm. What about those who park off the street? Charging stations? Ever been to a buccees or a love's and waited 20 minutes for a pump because the family of 4 400lbs people stopped off to buy every junk food item in the store?

Conveniently placed charging stations will be conveniently occupied by people who charged their cars hours ago.

I would say, that most people who are able to buy a new car will have some sort of job. As time goes on, I believe employers will have charging infrastructure in place for employees. It'll be a perk, maybe at the expense of earning but none the less, it will be available. Malls and parking structures will be built with charging in mind, Heck, even parking meters can be designed with charging capability. Again, this won't happen overnight but it will happen.

 

[alabbasi]

I would say, that most people who are able to buy a new car will have some sort of job. As time goes on, I believe employers will have charging infrastructure in place for employees. It'll be a perk, maybe at the expense of earning but none the less, it will be available. Malls and parking structures will be built with charging in mind, Heck, even parking meters can be designed with charging capability. Again, this won't happen overnight but it will happen.

Let's not forget the human aspect. People will park their cars there for the day whether they are 1% or 99% charged. They'll come back at their convenience and not yours. That's the problem with a 7 hour charge cycle, or a 40 minute one for that matter.

 

[Glen]

FFW? Every high end ICE car built in the last 20 years is so complicated, that repairing them when something goes wrong is a nightmare. Electrics should provide much more FFW as times goes on. Fewer failure points and less maintenance over time.

 

[gerryvz]

My employer in California (and their office near me here in Maryland) has had electric charging stations at HQ and satellite offices for probably a decade now. But there are 3-4 stations at most.

What happens when 50% of the vehicles in the parking lot are in need of a charge?

 

[Glen]

Let's not forget the human aspect. People will park their cars there for the day whether they are 1% or 99% charged. They'll come back at their convenience and not yours. That's the problem with a 7 hour charge cycle, or a 40 minute one for that matter.

Again, if it's your employer, you leave at the end of your shift. If it's at a mall, you leave when you are done shopping. If it's at a parking meter, you get charged (pun) when your meter runs out.

 

[Jlaa]

FFW? Every high end ICE car built in the last 20 years is so complicated, that repairing them when something goes wrong is a nightmare. Electrics should provide much more FFW as times goes on. Fewer failure points and less maintenance over time.

Toyotas are incredibly reliable and require next to zero maintenance to travel 200,000 miles. Toyota is the ultimate vehicular FFW.

Toyotas are low on Delight, but high on FFW.

 

[gsxr]

I agree, outside of a slew of corner cases like long trips, urban street parking, pickups carrying heavy loads / trailers, RVs, desolate Alaskan environments, etc etc etc that using battery-centric EVs only takes a little foresight and planning.ight” (more power, more engaging drive, electric silence, feelings of virtue, etc ....) but if FFW is decreased, then this is a mirage of luxury to me.

I think the corner cases rapidly move out of the corner, as you get away from suburbia and moderate-density cities. You need safe & secure parking for overnight charging. Random example: what about apartment complexes that typically just have a carport, no garage? And of course the scenario mentioned above where parking on the street is all that's available.

II will point out though - humans are bad at foresight and planning....

Bad? HAH! More likely atrocious...

IFilm based photography still produces photographs that blows away digital photography in picture quality ..... but digital has taken over because of “instantaneous.” Freedom From Worry (FFW) of storing, developing, and handling film as well as convenience.ight” (more power, more engaging drive, electric silence, feelings of virtue, etc ....) but if FFW is decreased, then this is a mirage of luxury to me.

Oooo, footography. That's another interesting discussion. I clung to film for a long time but switched to DSLR maybe 10 years ago, as the quality finally caught up with film (or close enough, IMO). But digital presents different worries. One hard drive crash without backups, and boom, you just lost every digital photo. Those optical backups? Better hope your M-Disc media lives up to the hype. Or, print every photo and keep a hardcopy in your closet, like the old film & negatives. Still no FFW, just different worry.

IFFW. For technological laggards like me, I see no value in paying extra for a daily car if it decreases FFW. The car might have increased levels of “Delight” (more power, more engaging drive, electric silence, feelings of virtue, etc ....) but if FFW is decreased, then this is a mirage of luxury to me.

Excellent point. This also will affect the speed at which the general public accept & transition to the new technology, as it becomes a viable option for them.

 

[gerryvz]

Toyotas are incredibly reliable and require next to zero maintenance to travel 200,000 miles. Toyota is the ultimate vehicular FFW.

Toyotas are low on Delight, but high on FFW.

I agree with these three sentences.

 

[Glen]

My employer in California (and their office near me here in Maryland) has had electric charging stations at HQ and satellite offices for probably a decade now. But there are 3-4 stations at most.

What happens when 50% of the vehicles in the parking lot are in need of a charge?

At some point, charging stations will be so common you'll be able to charge anywhere.

 

[gerryvz]

Oooo, footography. That's another interesting discussion. I clung to film for a long time but switched to DSLR maybe 10 years ago, as the quality finally caught up with film (or close enough, IMO). But digital presents different worries. One hard drive crash without backups, and boom, you just lost every digital photo. Those optical backups? Better hope your M-Disc media lives up to the hype. Or, print every photo and keep a hardcopy in your closet, like the old film & negatives. Still no FFW, just different worry.

Wasn't "the cloud" supposed to solve all that?

 

[gsxr]

My employer in California (and their office near me here in Maryland) has had electric charging stations at HQ and satellite offices for probably a decade now. But there are 3-4 stations at most.

What happens when 50% of the vehicles in the parking lot are in need of a charge?

My employer had these for a number of years(decade?), usually empty. But more recently, I was seeing the 3-4 stations always occupied. I had the same thought... what happens when a couple dozen people are fighting for the handful of stations available?

The answer isn't necessarily adding more stations... at some point, the company is going to balk at the cost of both installing the station, AND paying for the 'lektricity. Tearing up the parking lot to run more high-power cables will not be cheap. I guess they would just start - wait for it - charging for the privilege of topping off at work.