No question. But, key words: "At some point"
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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)
- Thread starter JC220
- Start date
You're missing my point, the infrastructure will never be able to keep up. It works right now when you have 4-10 charging locations in a parking lot of 500 cars that are not likely to need it. When there are 500 electric cars needing to be charged. Nobody is going to tear up a parking lot to install charging ports at every location and if they did, the grid won't be able to support it. That's like having a giant hole in my radiator and me being fixated on whether a 75 or 82 degree thermostat will work better on my car.
I woke up yesterday morning to a temp of -23F. Yes, a record for the day.
I built my house 30 years ago and have never experienced a power outage - until yesterday.
About 8AM - black, no electricity. Lasted about an hour, my inside temp only dropped 3-4 degrees, thankfully.
When I checked out why, it was because we are on a grid that includes Texas, so we were sharing some of ours with them.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have been a small part of helping them out but if this is the state of usable power today, how
are we going to provide enough to power a significant percentage of our transportation needs in the future?
I built my house 30 years ago and have never experienced a power outage - until yesterday.
About 8AM - black, no electricity. Lasted about an hour, my inside temp only dropped 3-4 degrees, thankfully.
When I checked out why, it was because we are on a grid that includes Texas, so we were sharing some of ours with them.
Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have been a small part of helping them out but if this is the state of usable power today, how
are we going to provide enough to power a significant percentage of our transportation needs in the future?
@alabassi, Nope,, you're missing the point. When a company builds a new building or parking lot, they will plan to have charging available and lay the foundation for it, even if it's not all installed now. Same with malls, parking structures, parking meters, etc. Once the underground cables are in place, adding another charger is trivial. re: the grid not being able to support it, that's another now problem, In time, we'll figure it out. Maybe we install ginormous battery storage containers throughout the country that can absorb surges or whatever. Like I said, up above, this will all take time but it is happening. The convenience of electric powered things is too great for people to ignore.
Actually, my wife oversaw a capital project for Baltimore Gas & Electric (BGE) a couple of years ago, to create from scratch a new parking lot to accommodate their new generation of trucks. Each truck parking stall had to have a charging station, WiFi/downlink for data, and other stuff. The project was HUGELY expensive. Of course, being a utility, they had huge budgets to do it because, well, they're a utility with a monopoly on providing energy to much of the state. But the capital costs of engineering and constructing this parking lot were not trivial, and definitely not cheap.
I can tell you it's not by sticking with what we've been doing for the last 100 years. We will fix the problems and move forward.
Right, so in order to support the new car, we need a new building with new infrastructure and an updated power grid. 15-20 million cars / year are sold in this country. Do you think the infrastructure can keep up or are you still missing my point?
We're not selling 15 to 20 million electric cars a year right now. But we are planning for the future. You're thinking of the now without planning for the future.
The whole point of the two Wall Street Journal editorials I posted earlier today was their discussion about why the solutions that are part of "moving forward" are not working, and need fixing. These problems did not exist in the past, even the recent past, because the power infrastructure was thought out better.
Not saying problems can't and won't be solved, but this rush to "green energy" in recent years has caused a lot of corners in thinking and engineering, to be cut.
And in situations like with what is happening in Texas and surrounding states right now, citizens are paying the price.
Same thing with California and their rolling blackouts because of the fire scare via transmission equipment. This didn't used to happen, because the infrastructure was newer, better maintained, and the forests were actually managed and maintained. But California's laws and pendulum on these things has swung in a direction that has caused massive instability and danger. And they don't really seem to be doing much to fix the problem, from what I can see. Just doubling down.
Planning for the future requires pragmatism. How many parking lots are built every year? How many office building? What do we do with the ones that already exist? Do tear them down so that we can build ones that look exactly like them but with electrical connections? What about old cities like London that were designed 1000 years ago? How do you rip those buildings apart?
I'm not suggesting that electric is not a viable solution. It's just not a viable solution for everybody and probably will never be. The policies in place are forcing electric cars onto people without considering any of the above which won't be ready for years to come.
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So many of these massive, seemingly insurmountable problems —- like power grid concerns, charging station availability, 30min - several hour charge times, toxicity / rare earth metal mining etc etc ..... is seemingly due to the use of chemistry and materials science to store energy (batteries). Batteries seem to be the limiting factor. We could still put chargers everywhere but no one would want to wait around for 30mins to wait for a battery to charge.
This is the observation that makes me wonder if the road to mass EV adoption is via hydrogen .... or some other storage method that has better FFW characteristics.
This is the observation that makes me wonder if the road to mass EV adoption is via hydrogen .... or some other storage method that has better FFW characteristics.
I say you just bury a huge electric cable along the base of the old Roman Wall and call it a day.
The stigma of the Hindenburg will make that really difficult. There's also no infrastructure for hydrogen and building one would cost more than electric chargers which can be put almost anywhere. With 80+million single family homes in the U.S., there is potential to self charge that many electric cars...which is way more convenient that driving somewhere to fill up.
You want electric cars?
This is what you get:
This fucking thing borders several peoples' property. You think they want it there?
You can't replace gas station (conveniently located in business districts) with electric cars and not expect some serious infrastructure. I live it. It's goddamn hideous. And this is just to power the datacenters. There will be more build outs here AND in your neck of the woods. And these buildouts will stretch much closer to YOUR backyard. Maybe even over your house.
It will suck.
And no (with emphasis), the infrastructure WILL NOT be put underground.
EDIT: I'm using the "you" generically. Not targeting a specific person.
This is what you get:
This fucking thing borders several peoples' property. You think they want it there?
You can't replace gas station (conveniently located in business districts) with electric cars and not expect some serious infrastructure. I live it. It's goddamn hideous. And this is just to power the datacenters. There will be more build outs here AND in your neck of the woods. And these buildouts will stretch much closer to YOUR backyard. Maybe even over your house.
It will suck.
And no (with emphasis), the infrastructure WILL NOT be put underground.
EDIT: I'm using the "you" generically. Not targeting a specific person.
Yep, and I thought it was hard to switch from Dewalt to Makita
Cancer lines. Sweet! Not bordering my property, thank you....
When I built our house a little over 12 years ago, I built it with self-charging an EV in mind, and installed a pretty hefty-sized solar array on our tiny rooftop. I even had an extra 220V circuit pulled in the garage in anticipation of an EV in the future. I'm all for electrification!
However, 12 years on, and we still haven't purchased an EV. There are several reasons for this:
- We commute to work a lot less than we did 12 years ago. Therefore, our willingness to spend dollars on a purely-around-town car has declined significantly. New cars that we purchase must do double duty for both around-town and road-trip driving.
- As we use our cars to do road-trip-driving, we heavily prioritize FFW (Freedom From Worry) --- we don't want to keep track of charging stations. If there WERE charging stations everywhere, we don't want to wait 30 minutes to charge; nor do we want to fight / get in a road-rage (charger-rage) conflict with everyone else who is trying to hog a charger.
- Cost - Even with tax credits factored in, it is tough to beat Toyota Hybrid ICE Electric Vehicles on cost. One can buy a new Toyota Hybrid RAV4/Camry somewhere in the $24,000-29,000 range.
- Reliability --- A certain segment of the population (I guess I count myself in this segment) looks at an everyday car as a tool. For this segment of the population, a lot of emphasis is placed on reliability (FFW) and very little emphasis is placed on delight. I think eventually if Toyota comes out with an electric vehicle with legendary Toyota reliability in the mid 20k price point, I will take another look at how willing I am to put up with less FFW w.r.t. having to find charging stations on road-trips.
Oh, one of my "favorite" subjects to worry about (the other is NLA parts, which has its separate thread where I could put my worries into
). The discussion drifted a bit, but here is my opinion from this (European) side of Atlantic.
I'm afraid that here, even in short-term (short - comparing to the 10-20 years span asked) the prices will go over max records, once we deal with the current covid situation. The current average E5 (Pb95) prices are about 4.7 PLN, while the max was like 5.3 PLN or so, if I remember correctly. We're mostly on remote work, there are no too many cars on the streets, and definitely no traffic jams. So even with such low demand we're not far from max prices. What will happen with prices once we gain control over covid and people get out on the streets?
I'm also afraid that in the longer run the prices of fuel will rise. Consequently rise, maybe not dramatic increase, but no chance for going down. I see two reasons:
1. The "go electric" hype is heard often and often. Let's say, after 5-10 years, where EV will be more common, the fuel prices start to fall, because of lower demand And it will turn out that driving with combustion engine is cheaper than EV. But we keep hearing that driving EV is not only eco, but cheaper. To not have wave of people going toward combustion engines I'm afraid that the government will take care of that and bring back fuel prices to rising trend again by adding taxes.
2. Engines mpg will still increase. There is still some room for improvement. Let's say that manufacturers improve the range twice, then there is room to increase fuel price twice...
However, I do not see the EV revolution happening in Poland, unless the technology improves and allows to charge a battery in 5 minutes. I just can't see it. Majority of citizens in large cities live in housing estates with 4-10 storied buildings. There is no way to build infrastructure here, where people park cars wherever possible. You're left with pulling a wire from 7th floor...Maybe it's easier in US, where people generally have their own homes, but here it's tight.
). The discussion drifted a bit, but here is my opinion from this (European) side of Atlantic. I'm afraid that here, even in short-term (short - comparing to the 10-20 years span asked) the prices will go over max records, once we deal with the current covid situation. The current average E5 (Pb95) prices are about 4.7 PLN, while the max was like 5.3 PLN or so, if I remember correctly. We're mostly on remote work, there are no too many cars on the streets, and definitely no traffic jams. So even with such low demand we're not far from max prices. What will happen with prices once we gain control over covid and people get out on the streets?
I'm also afraid that in the longer run the prices of fuel will rise. Consequently rise, maybe not dramatic increase, but no chance for going down. I see two reasons:
1. The "go electric" hype is heard often and often. Let's say, after 5-10 years, where EV will be more common, the fuel prices start to fall, because of lower demand And it will turn out that driving with combustion engine is cheaper than EV. But we keep hearing that driving EV is not only eco, but cheaper. To not have wave of people going toward combustion engines I'm afraid that the government will take care of that and bring back fuel prices to rising trend again by adding taxes.
2. Engines mpg will still increase. There is still some room for improvement. Let's say that manufacturers improve the range twice, then there is room to increase fuel price twice...
However, I do not see the EV revolution happening in Poland, unless the technology improves and allows to charge a battery in 5 minutes. I just can't see it. Majority of citizens in large cities live in housing estates with 4-10 storied buildings. There is no way to build infrastructure here, where people park cars wherever possible. You're left with pulling a wire from 7th floor...Maybe it's easier in US, where people generally have their own homes, but here it's tight.
I know, it's very hard...very hard....to live in SF without owning either a Priii, or an EV, or both.
I can't imagine the social pressure that non-Priii/EV owners must live under.
As to the cost of gasoline... there's another component to consider.... taxation.
Eventually, Federal, State and Local governments will figure out how to properly tax those who aren't paying their fair share to use the public roads.
This will happen sooner, rather than later.
OPM is great, until it runs out.
Eventually, Federal, State and Local governments will figure out how to properly tax those who aren't paying their fair share to use the public roads.
This will happen sooner, rather than later.
OPM is great, until it runs out.
Hmm. Seems to me it would be easier for the gov't to stop the flow of gas than electrons. You could always put up a solar panel and slowly charge your car. It may take days/weeks but you could do it. No gas, you're stuck unless you can convert your car to CNG or some other hydrocarbon.
Thank you for this viewpoint; it is quite illustrative of much of the world outside the US. In a lot of places of "wealthier" Asia (where people can easily afford to buy electric cars) like Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, China, Korea, etc ..... most people live in flats in storied buildings. The prevalence of single family houses and private garages in Asia is not like it is in the USA or Canada.
Oh, when you mentioned about "wealther" Asia I realized I was not precise enough: I should have said "live in housing estates with 4-10 storied buildings without underground parking places". I suppose (just suppose, because I haven't been there, except of Malaysia, but I would say it falls in the same bag as Poland - rising, but not "wealthy"
) that with all the high-tech push and planning they do have underground parking places in most of the storied buildings. Having that it may be relatively easy to retrofit such parking places with EV-charging infrastructure - "just" add wiring, charging point and you're done. Parking place is assigned to a flat so you even know whom to bill. You just need enough energy...However here we have a lot of estates built in 60's - 90's of the previous century, when owning a car was a luxury. No one thought about underground parking at that time. The newer ones, built in that last 20 years in most cases have underground parking stories, but looking at least at my city, the old buildings are in majority.
From my time in Eastern Europe (I'm talking Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Poland, Moldova, etc.), and even in Western Europe (outside of Germany), I would say with a very high level of confidence that the ICE is not going ANYWHERE for decades to come.
The same as in Middle America. I do not see Iowa corn and wheat farmers, or Idaho potato farmers, converting their 25-year-old John Deere tractors and combines and farm vehicles to LNG, or buying electric replacements. Ain't gonna happen. At least not in the next couple or three decades.
Many people in the US are very guilty of projecting what's happening in the elite coastal urban enclaves, with Middle America. It's an attitude of cultural superiority, looking down on those not like them as hicks and climate infidels. This is the same attitude that is driving the Civil War that I have been talking about. These "cultural infidel" people who don't live in the major coastal cities and suburbs are going to resist this stuff. Vehemently. One does not see many Priiii and Soobarus driving around in places like Louisiana and Mississippi. This is because these Middle America people outright **reject** what is happening in the coastal urban enclaves.
The same as in Middle America. I do not see Iowa corn and wheat farmers, or Idaho potato farmers, converting their 25-year-old John Deere tractors and combines and farm vehicles to LNG, or buying electric replacements. Ain't gonna happen. At least not in the next couple or three decades.
Many people in the US are very guilty of projecting what's happening in the elite coastal urban enclaves, with Middle America. It's an attitude of cultural superiority, looking down on those not like them as hicks and climate infidels. This is the same attitude that is driving the Civil War that I have been talking about. These "cultural infidel" people who don't live in the major coastal cities and suburbs are going to resist this stuff. Vehemently. One does not see many Priiii and Soobarus driving around in places like Louisiana and Mississippi. This is because these Middle America people outright **reject** what is happening in the coastal urban enclaves.
Drive a Tesla and you change a lot of people's minds. After driving my father's Tesla Model 3 in Chicago over a weekend I became a true believer. Not because I want to save the planet or because I have become coastal elite liberal over the past ten years out here on the left coast, but because it was FAST, quiet, great handling/ride and had a kick ass stereo system. And you change the brake fluid every couple of years and that should be it. Great suburbia solution when you put in a decent 220V charger in your garage and charge at night. No need to charge at work. Plenty of range for daily commutes. Does this mean electric will take over? No, but it will have continued market growth because a lot of people will like the electric car experience.
To solidify my coastal elite status so I can look down upon the flyover parts of the country where the rest of my family lives, I have put my deposit down for one of these. (Aptera with the solar charge body panels). Admittedly the better buy would be a used Model 3 as a daily commute car in a couple of years.
To solidify my coastal elite status so I can look down upon the flyover parts of the country where the rest of my family lives, I have put my deposit down for one of these. (Aptera with the solar charge body panels). Admittedly the better buy would be a used Model 3 as a daily commute car in a couple of years.
Since solar panels continuously decline in cost, in theory, the smartest move for everyone is to postpone buying into them.... Indefinitely. No way You did that for ideological or even geek reasons. How much of the cost was covered by CA in 2008?
EVs are more affordable than people give them credit for (see what I did there) and I have a hard time believing they themselves will have much impact on gas price....tax changes or bans will do that. Gas being scarce/crazy expensive is a problem 20-30 years out.
As for charge speeds and range, it's increasing pretty rapidly, as prices fall. In 2016 you couldn't get a decent EV (>250 mile range) for <$70k. Now you can get a Model 3 with 265mi and Autopilot for $38k, competitive with a 3 series/C Class, while a Bolt is <$34k. Not mid 20s cheap, but it's coming down quickly, and the gap closes when you factor in total cost of ownership. The new Tesla Model S Plaid has 400 + mi range and can add 200+ mi in 15 mins. I wouldn't have expected this much progress in 5 years, who knows where things will be in another 5. 300 mi range in <10 mins would be to me effective parity with gas if charging is decently available. As is you rarely wait at any highway gas station nowadays, making the charge time double would likely only change that a bit on the odd holiday weekend. Seems like a fair trade off to never having to service the car or go to a 'gas' station on non road trips (if you have home charging). Plus you get face melting torque.
We'll definitely have to make changes and adjustments.
As for charge speeds and range, it's increasing pretty rapidly, as prices fall. In 2016 you couldn't get a decent EV (>250 mile range) for <$70k. Now you can get a Model 3 with 265mi and Autopilot for $38k, competitive with a 3 series/C Class, while a Bolt is <$34k. Not mid 20s cheap, but it's coming down quickly, and the gap closes when you factor in total cost of ownership. The new Tesla Model S Plaid has 400 + mi range and can add 200+ mi in 15 mins. I wouldn't have expected this much progress in 5 years, who knows where things will be in another 5. 300 mi range in <10 mins would be to me effective parity with gas if charging is decently available. As is you rarely wait at any highway gas station nowadays, making the charge time double would likely only change that a bit on the odd holiday weekend. Seems like a fair trade off to never having to service the car or go to a 'gas' station on non road trips (if you have home charging). Plus you get face melting torque.
We'll definitely have to make changes and adjustments.
You!!!!!!! I am geen with envy! I totally want an Aptera!!!
Hence the the ongoing immigration policy. Once they can't meaningfully affect US politics (I think 2020 was a Stalingrad point), these cultural infidels will be left alone to self-govern in their "homelands". Similar to how it was in South Africa. Their economic power has been steadily declining anyways
Jlaa, I put my $100 refundable order for my Aptera pretty early. The AWD version, most power!, but with the smallest battery (lightest weight, 200+ miles range), with solar panels all over (park outside in sunny California), and upgrade stereo. Go back and forth to work, 50 miles each day. It is a luxury commute pod, around $30k I hope.
Since solar panels continuously decline in cost, in theory, the smartest move for everyone is to postpone buying into them.... Indefinitely. No way You did that for ideological or even geek reasons. How much of the cost was covered by CA in 2008?
After rebates, I paid the price of a Prius for those panels. My fellow American taxpayers chipped in around 10K, and my fellow Californians chipped in another couple K.
. Now I can smugly run all my lights and gobble as much electricity as I can even think about wasting and stick it to the man. 
To be fair, at the time, I was building a house in SF with a steel moment frame and that experience was like taking gobs of money and setting it on fire
. 
Another Chicago friend of mine, blue collar, veteran, typical solid midwesterner that owns a roofing company, drives the wheels off of his used Tesla Model S, and again because it is FAST, charges at night, and enjoys the miles he puts on it driving to different job sites.I want a Tesla just for Plaid mode. If they can get the performance consistent as the Taycan (which is astonishing), I'd be eyeballing those pretty hard, at least when the price comes down to 500E levels.
Taycan is crazy fast. Looking forward to checking out the 2022 Porsche Macan which is supposed to have an electric model for my wife.
Promise me you will take me for a ride!!!! If it is anywhere as Star Trek as I’m imagining it to be, I will finally junk the Prius and get an Aptera!!!
I used to think that the natural line would roughly be the Mason-Dixon Line + the Coasts for the EEUIs (Enlightened Educated Urban Intellectuals) vs the BCIs (Bitter Clingers and Cultural Infidels) but no longer. I think it will be more pocketed, with the EEUIs retaining the bulk of the coasts and southern US (that includes Texas and along the Gulf Coast to Florida) with the BCIs retreating inland to a large pocket that includes Appalachia through the northern parts of the Southern states, Rockies states to Utah. Idaho unfortunately will be lost to EEUIs, but Montana will be the line. it will sort of look like the map the had of the occupied vs. free area in the original Red Dawn movie from the 1980s.
Of course Alaska and Maine will remain BCI due to their remoteness, harsh-ish climates, and physical ruggedness. EEUIs, after all, need their creature comforts and EV charging stations, and Starbucks for their Bubble Teas, and places like the Dakotas, Maine and Alaska are not so hospitable for that type of stuff. That’s why I’m headed northward to Maine in not too many years, after I sell my land in remote southern Oregon. Unfortunately Oregon is permanently lost to EEUIs who have moved up from the Bay Area, even to places like Bend, Medford and Klamath Falls. It’s all so unfortunate to have seen over the past 25 years.
I would venture to guess that the CPM (charging points per square mile) for EVs and the STC (Soobaru Tesla Coefficient) in the BCI areas will be a small fraction of what is found in EEUI areas.
Move back to Texas, it's colder!
it’s also darker, due to blackouts. @nocfn has been awfully quiet lately…..
Is that a good or bad thing?
I’m getting kinda worried about him.
I can only imagine... But, I'm guessing in a relatively not too distant future, those coopted "barbarians" will come for the decadent Rome. In general, their loyalty to the system, unlike the cultural infidels, is entirely mercantile. As an immigrant myself, I'm just self-projecting. Maybe I'm wrong
I hope it doesn’t come to a situation like they have in South Africa, where they have gated/armed/secure communities to keep the BCI analogues out. Because the barbarians (gasp) have “automatic” weapons. Seriously though, hard to predict.
I can only imagine all the critters in Texas, ranging from scorpions, to palm-sized cockroaches, to armadillos, to the giant killer mud wasps, to the copperheads and even feral hogs that are wanting to take shelter in peoples’ homes.
I always did love me a good nighttime hog hunt though…
Only these fellas get to come in. They've been around for a while so I feel somewhat responsible
By "barbarians" I meant the populace meant to replace cultural infidels, and by decadent Rome I meant a collective "Pelosi, Newsom, etc" and their suburban constituents. As to 2nd amendment, it's blessing for the prolongation of the status quo. No wonder it's continuously under attack
