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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

@ace10, Out of curiosity, If your wife’s new Audi. e-Tron GT’s battery capacity is 270kw if I understand you correctly. At a cost of $0.15 per kw fill up = $40.50.

How far will that get you down the road?

Just trying to relate that to our gas guzzlers.


I know you guys are super-hot for updates, so here it goes:

@ace10, That E-Tron GT looks like a beautiful car. I hope you have better luck with it than the Panamera.

This is no reflection against you Ace or anyone else with an EV but I just had my first ride in an EV. It was a Tesla model Y. It belongs to a friend of mine who doesn’t follow the 500Eboard. If he did I wouldn’t be writing this.

I was very impressed with the acceleration but not much else. I thought that the interior was very plain and uninspiring. The leather seats were well constructed and looked nice but quite hard I thought. Being used to looking at a traditional dashboard and what the Y called a dashboard to me is only something a Gen Z computer geek could love. It’s just a 12”x 20” screen over a car wide split/stepped dash board. The split is where the AC comes out.

It sets on 22” Michelin tires. The ride was quite stiff although very quite but it was on a very smooth asphalt street.

No way would I put down the $75K my friend paid for this car. That’s a lot of upfront $$$ to pay just to get better gas mileage. I’m not sure it could make it from LA to Las Vegas on one charge. There’s only a few stops out in that freeking desert and I would hate to get caught out there on a 100 degree day.

It probably my age but I still prefer petroleum fueled cars.

Again this is only my opinion.

lol

The battery "capacity" is actually ~90kwh. But that # is subject to other factors. Charging to ~80% will extend the life of the battery, but obviously decrease range. Running it down to below 5% is supposed to result in the same shortened life. EPA rates the car at something like 240 miles. But on a daily driven basis, it's safe to use about 200-210 miles of range. Certainly nothing to write home about. The 270kw charge rate is the "speed" at which the car could be charged if the pipe was large enough. The few times I've gone to a 150kw charger, it's been running anywhere from 100-140kw.

I think the easiest way to think about the cost of driving from point A to point B is by using the metric Miles/kWH. If you don't go crazy with the skinny pedal that returns 3.1 to maybe 3.9 so far. For my $0.14 (all-in) residential electricity rate, you're getting "burning" $0.045 to $0.036 per mile of electrons. Obviously excluding depreciation, wear and tear, etc. etc.

The economics don't make sense. But as I've mentioned before, my wife gets to spend maybe 20 to 30 minutes less commuting each day, so that's basically priceless.

The maintenance costs are significantly lower. Expect $100 at the 10K, 30K, 50K marks and $800 at 20K, 40K etc.

I think one of the appealing things about the Audi is that they didn't go the uber modern route with the interior. You'd be hard-pressed to even know it's a BEV. It even makes an electronic V8-ish rumble at low speeds to warn pedestrians.

I think that's a pretty normal looking newer car interior.
udi-e-tron-gt-steering-wheel-design-carbuzz-916301.jpg

Google photo, not mine
 
The battery "capacity" is actually ~90kwh. But that # is subject to other factors. Charging to ~80% will extend the life of the battery, but obviously decrease range. Running it down to below 5% is supposed to result in the same shortened life. EPA rates the car at something like 240 miles. But on a daily driven basis, it's safe to use about 200-210 miles of range. Certainly nothing to write home about. The 270kw charge rate is the "speed" at which the car could be charged if the pipe was large enough. The few times I've gone to a 150kw charger, it's been running anywhere from 100-140kw.

I think the easiest way to think about the cost of driving from point A to point B is by using the metric Miles/kWH. If you don't go crazy with the skinny pedal that returns 3.1 to maybe 3.9 so far. For my $0.14 (all-in) residential electricity rate, you're getting "burning" $0.045 to $0.036 per mile of electrons. Obviously excluding depreciation, wear and tear, etc. etc.

The economics don't make sense. But as I've mentioned before, my wife gets to spend maybe 20 to 30 minutes less commuting each day, so that's basically priceless.

The maintenance costs are significantly lower. Expect $100 at the 10K, 30K, 50K marks and $800 at 20K, 40K etc.

I think one of the appealing things about the Audi is that they didn't go the uber modern route with the interior. You'd be hard-pressed to even know it's a BEV. It even makes an electronic V8-ish rumble at low speeds to warn pedestrians.

I think that's a pretty normal looking newer car interior.
View attachment 151542

Google photo, not mine
@ace10, That’s a great looking dash :) The Tesla Y’s is pathetic.
 
Well, here's Kudlow's take on our gas situation with the new Green deal "inflation reduction spending bill".

"there's $7.5 billion in subsidies for new electric vehicles that typical families cannot afford and, by the way, most of the battery ingredients will disqualify even the cars for rich people because they're made in China and the radical greenies won't let resource-rich America mine these necessary minerals and, let’s not forget, $3 billion for so-called "climate justice" for the Biden wokesters, whatever "climate justice" is supposed to mean.
Then there's $12 billion in new taxes on fossil fuels, a $1,500-per-ton natural gas methane fee. All told, $93 billion in direct attacks on fossil fuels and energy independence. "
 
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Maybe your family is struggling to afford gasoline and the loan payments on that seven year old Honda... but hey.... you know what... according to career politician Ed Markey, you can "have" an all-electric vehicle.

Apparently, they're free.

 
"...you can have an all-electric vehicle that averages 75 cents, um, for your payment, uh for your all-electric vehicle, to be able to move you anywhere you want, uh, in our state or in our country."

$0.75 payment? Where do I sign up? Does that get me a Tesla, Rivian, or Lucid?

:apl: :apl: :apl:
 
$0.75 payment? Where do I sign up? Does that get me a Tesla, Rivian, or Lucid?
They guy can't even make it sound somewhat plausible.
I'm guessing he's trying to create some equivalence to the cost of gasoline.
Massachusetts is about $0.185/kwh.
Let's say 3.5 miles per.
$0.75 is right at 4 kwh.... 14 miles of travel.

The bullshit is piled so very high, and so very deep.
 
Yeah, I figured he was trying to translate fossil costs into electric, somehow. But I couldn't figure out what you get for each $0.75 payment. Given your numbers, ace, let's say you have a 14mpg vehicle. $0.75 is a big savings over $4+ per gallon of liquid dinosaurs.

This assumes there was zero cost to exchange the ICE for batteries, zero cost to install a home charging unit, and adequate infrastructure to support charging for your travel needs. Still doesn't work well in rural farmland. Might work in Boston?

:pc1:
 
The average American is driving a passenger vehicle which burns gasoline at a rate of low to mid 20's mpg.
Per google, in 2005 the average new car was rated for 21mpg and in 2020 it was 25 mpg.

The guy is just being a scumbag politician.

And, sure as shit, road taxes will be coming for EVs. There's no way around it.
 
I'm interested to see how the F150 Lightning does in fleet applications and what their total running costs look like. The fuel costs are typically at least 1/3rd, and typically lower. At $0.15/kWh and 3 kWh per mi, you'd be at $0.05/mi, vs 0.2$/mi for a 20mpg, $4/gal vehicle (generous for a non-EV F150). Even if you assume you have to buy a new pack at 200k mi in 5 years out of warranty ($100/kWh, 125 kWh), you're still at roughly half the cost of the gas F150 ($0.0625 per mile for the pack, ammortized) and that doesn't include any additional maintenance costs on the gas car.

I hope the entire road funding structure gets revised. The gas tax mechanism is chronically underfunded and results in a game of chicken where politicians in power don't want to be the ones forced to raise it. There has to be a better way to collect fees for this that captures advances in technology we've made.
 
Ford just raised the price of the Lightning.
Perfectly timed to eat up incentives in the new federal legislation.

I think the burn rate for that model is down closer to 2 miles per kwh. When it's not doing truck things.
 
Hopefully the Chinese will come along and sell us an electric car for 1/3 price.
The new federal law signed by the POTUS today bars the $7500 EV tax credit from being used on vehicles w components sourced from “foreign entities of concern”. That means China.

As well, most foreign sourced EVs like those from Audi, Porsche, Toyota, Nissan, and VW will not be fully eligible for the tax credit.

I am supportive of this development. If my tax dollars are to be used to subsidize someone’s car purchase, then I prefer my tax dollars be yanked stolen taken from me and distributed amongst American hands as much as possible.
 
I think that people are going to be surprised at how many parts are sourced from China on American made stuff.

It's going to be interesting to see how that's settled in court
 
The Chinese are currently selling the Polestar 2 into the US market.
It's not exactly cheap.
The Lotus Electre SUV will be made in China and carry a hefty price tag.
Are any of the JLR offerings made in China?
 
The new federal law signed by the POTUS today bars the $7500 EV tax credit from being used on vehicles w components sourced from “foreign entities of concern” [FEOC]. That means China.
I think that people are going to be surprised at how many parts are sourced from China on American made stuff.
What percentage of non-US / Chinese / non-FEOC components are allowed? I'd think it would be nearly unpossible to build an EV without at least some components from China.

:wormhole:
 
The Chinese are currently selling the Polestar 2 into the US market.
It's not exactly cheap.
The Lotus Electre SUV will be made in China and carry a hefty price tag.
Are any of the JLR offerings made in China?
Polestar2 is too premium to drive mass adoption. The big ones from China to watch from a “competitive pricing” POV are BYD, XPeng, and NIO. BYD right now is #1 in the CDM (China Domestic Market) and is neck to neck with Tesla in the sales race in the CDM.

Critically, Tesla suffered massively with production snafus bc their factory is located in Shanghai, with lots of lockdowns. BYD didn’t suffer nearly as much with production in the South (Shenzhen) (take *that*! Southerners have always historically be conquered/trampled/stomped on by those Mandarin speaking snobs….. anyways …..)

Berkshire Hathaway (American company) also has big investments in BYD. None of those 3 leading Chinese EV makers have started exporting passenger cars to the US yet, but it will just be a matter of time.

BYD is already selling its passenger buses here - I saw one the other day.
 

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I think a lot of the provisions for the incentives now make way more sense. The previous set up helped drive adoption and bring down the cost of a new technology even if it at times gave incentives to high income people. Now those people are restricted (rightfully so) and lower income and lower cost EVs are the focus.

Fast charging performance is not effectively communicated by OEMs right now. As there's no standard, you hear things like 10-80% time (ignores vehicle consumption and range), peak charge rate (mostly meaningless, you care about the integral of the curve not its peak, think MB V-8 power delivery vs Honda VTEC), and miles added in X minutes (a bit better, but not great). Everyone would benefit from a simple 'real world' standard. One option is just 'time to add 200 miles of highway range' - it's a nice round number that everyone can understand.

Another alternative would be time to drive some distance - 400 miles seems like the right number (SF to LA, roughly) to capture a longer road trip. The test then lets you do basically whatever you want
  • Speed is fixed at 75 MPH
  • Battery can't drop below 5%/25 miles of range at any point
  • You can 'charge' as many times as you want, at any point you want, but you incur a 10 or 15 minute penalty each time you do to reflect the on ramp/off ramp/plug in times
  • 30C ambient, HVAC on at 22C
  • For reference, a gas car would take roughly 5 hr 20 mins to complete this trip, although it seems fair to add at least one 10 min stop to account for those without horse sized bladders and American Sniper levels of long term focus and concentration
This test is still pretty easy to understand and is what a 'normal' person would want to see - my Mom would not understand 150kW vs 350 kW or 400V vs 800v, et, but she would understand that the Ioniq5 will need one short stop on this trip and only take a bit longer than a gas car, whereas the Mustang MachE and its poorer fast charge performance will take about 1 hr longer. No other test today communicates this. Note that this test bakes in a lot of what is important: range, efficiency, fast charge time. It doesn't account for fast charger availability but that would be harder to capture without becoming too complex. You could also unrestrict speed (ie allow OEMs to choose a speed between 60 to 80 MPH), add components of temp or longer range (ie a negative 7C point would encompass most winters, a longer distance version might be interesting too).
 
Polestar just dropped the bomb on people who haven't been following the news.

Email received today::

1660754754055.png

I'm going to hang onto my order slot just so I can try to get some sort of feel for orders that may be cancelling ahead of me.
In the absence of the OPM incentive, I won't be buying the car.
 
Polestar2 is too premium to drive mass adoption. The big ones from China to watch from a “competitive pricing” POV are BYD, XPeng, and NIO. BYD right now is #1 in the CDM (China Domestic Market) and is neck to neck with Tesla in the sales race in the CDM.

Critically, Tesla suffered massively with production snafus bc their factory is located in Shanghai, with lots of lockdowns. BYD didn’t suffer nearly as much with production in the South (Shenzhen) (take *that*! Southerners have always historically be conquered/trampled/stomped on by those Mandarin speaking snobs….. anyways …..)

Berkshire Hathaway (American company) also has big investments in BYD. None of those 3 leading Chinese EV makers have started exporting passenger cars to the US yet, but it will just be a matter of time.

BYD is already selling its passenger buses here - I saw one the other day.
When the incentive was still on the table, the base, base Polestar 2 was theoretically available for ~$42K net.
Relatively inexpensive for a BEV, but certainly not "affordable" for everyone.
 
Buick makes some really nice stuff. Just not available here. Also, CDM likes minivans.

Buick GL8 Century Below

View attachment 152638
It's amazing how far China has come in the last 30 years from a $4B economy in 1990 to $17 trillion today.
I dated a Chinese girl for a while who got her mathematics degree there before coming her for her post grad. She told me that they weren't allowed to calculators at University.

First thig out of my mouth when she told me this was 'Can you imagine their growth if they used calculators?'
 
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When the incentive was still on the table, the base, base Polestar 2 was theoretically available for ~$42K net.
Relatively inexpensive for a BEV, but certainly not "affordable" for everyone.
Sadly, $42k net is below average for auto transaction prices these days.
 
Trucks skew the number upward by quite a bit. They're $56K+

I'd toss them out for any comparison.
Yeah.
Also, near-0-interest-rates bring down monthly payments.
Now with non-zero interest rates, that brings up monthly payments. I wonder what that does to the average transaction price of a new car?
 
It's amazing how far China has come in the last 30 years from a $4B economy in 1990 to $17 trillion today.
I dated a Chinese girl for a while who got her mathematics degree there before coming her for her post grad. She told me that they weren't allowed to calculators at University.

First thig out of my mouth when she told me this was 'Can you imagine their growth if they used calculators?'
@alabbasi, Can you imagine how much smarter your Chinese friend is. She can actually do the math:). It’s amazing to me how many people can’t add 2+2 w/o a calculator. Do you remember when the grocery checkers used to add up all of the groceries. Now most of them just use the bar code and can’t even count change.:(

lol
 
DoE has published a notice regarding calendar year 2022 sales of BEV and PHEV vehicles with respect to the OPM tax credit.


Important Information About Tax Credits:

Congress recently passed new legislation—the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022—which changes credit amounts and requirements for clean energy vehicles.

Preliminary guidance from the Internal Revenue Service addresses two important issues regarding vehicles purchased in 2022:

  • If you entered into a written binding contract to purchase a new qualifying electric vehicle before August 16, 2022, but do not take possession of the vehicle until on or after August 16, 2022, (for example, because the vehicle has not been delivered), you may claim the EV credit based on the rules that were in effect before August 16, 2022.
  • If you purchase and take possession of a qualifying electric vehicle after August 16, 2022 and before January 1, 2023, final assembly of the vehicle had to be completed in North America, otherwise the same rules in effect prior to the enactment of the Inflation Reduction Act apply (including those involving the manufacturing caps on vehicles sold).

    The Department of Energy has provided a list of Model Year 2022 and early Model Year 2023 electric vehicles that may meet the final assembly requirement. Because some models are built in multiple locations, there may be vehicles on the list that do not meet the final assembly requirement in all circumstances.

    To identify the manufacture location for a specific vehicle, please search the vehicle identification number (VIN) of the vehicle on the VIN Decoder website for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). The website, including instructions, can be found at VIN Decoder.
We will provide more information when IRS releases additional guidance on the credits.


Here's the initial list of qualifying vehicles going forward. Subject to further Federal review, VIN-based production data and income limits.

Model YearVehicle
2022Audi Q5
2022BMW 330e
2022BMW X5
2022Chrysler Pacifica PHEV
2022Ford Escape PHEV
2022Ford F Series
2022Ford Mustang MACH E
2022Ford Transit Van
2022Jeep Grand Cherokee PHEV
2022Jeep Wrangler PHEV
2022Lincoln Aviator PHEV
2022Lincoln Corsair Plug-in
2022Lucid Air
2022Nissan Leaf
2022Rivian EDV
2022Rivian R1S
2022Rivian R1T
2022Volvo S60
2023BMW 330e
2023Bolt EV
2023Cadillac Lyriq
2023Mercedes EQS SUV
2023Nissan Leaf
 
The IRS definition of a "binding contract" is sure to burn the muffins of people who have orders in-flight:

What Is a Written Binding Contract?

In general, a written contract is binding if it is enforceable under State law and does not limit damages to a specified amount (for example, by use of a liquidated damages provision or the forfeiture of a deposit). While the enforceability of a contract under State law is a facts-and-circumstances determination to be made under relevant State law, if a customer has made a significant non-refundable deposit or down payment, it is an indication of a binding contract. For tax purposes in general, a contract provision that limits damages to an amount equal to at least 5 percent of the total contract price is not treated as limiting damages to a specified amount. For example, if a customer has made a non-refundable deposit or down payment of 5 percent of the total contract price, it is an indication of a binding contract. A contract is binding even if subject to a condition, as long as the condition is not within the control of either party. A contract will continue to be binding if the parties make insubstantial changes in its terms and conditions.
 
@alabbasi, Can you imagine how much smarter your Chinese friend is.
She's definitely smarter than me. Better looking for that matter.... it's not hard :blink:

I took an MBA class in supply chain operations earlier this year and one of the students did a presentation on a new lithium open pit mine that's opening in Nevada. The synopsis of the presentation was that the locally sourced lithium was better for the enviroment compared to the waste water evaporators used in other parts of the world. While I'm not an expert, isn't open pit mining the worse kind for pollutants getting into the drinking water system?
 
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Ford just raised the price of the Lightning.
Perfectly timed to eat up incentives in the new federal legislation.

I think the burn rate for that model is down closer to 2 miles per kwh. When it's not doing truck things.
And the lowest priced trim (called Pro) is already sold out for MY23…. I test drove a Lariat and it is sick…cornering like a Porsche Cayenne in a truck that heavy.
With ford talking about new platform for 2025 onwards and tech evolving, I fear current offering of electric f-150 will become an dinosaur soon.
My biggest fear about EVs is how long the vehicle will get software support as they are essentially iPads on wheels. Imagine if HHT was required to run your w124s.
 
My biggest fear about EVs is ... they are essentially iPads on wheels. Imagine if HHT was required to run your w124s.
Yeah, and you hope they are as stable as iPads, and not like Windows. Wouldn't be fun to have a BSOD at 75mph on the freeway. Or unintended WOT due to a software crash. Etc.

:matrix:
 
Already experiencing a software "feature" on my wife's new car.
If you're at a stop light for a prolonged period of time, the car may infer that you don't actually intend to move again, and it will engage "Park."
Only happened once, so far.

There's a software update, but it's not part of the dealer's PDI process, so they aren't installing it. And the manufacturer does not do OTAs updates (yet) for anything other than maps.

Oh, the fucking joys of modern cars.
 
Just watch cars getting stolen for their battery pack. How else will you replace a $20,000 battery on a $12,000 car?
 
If it's the style you're after, it's pretty cool but if you just want a small electric runabout for going to the store or to pick up food, I think you'd be better off with a older used EV, eg. Nissan Leaf or Fiat 500e...both available for $10K or less. The cost is about the same but you get full HVAC, better range and safety, and they can run at highway speeds if necessary. Personally, my daily commute recently went away so I bought a 2014 Fiat 500e for around town use. Laugh if you want but I think it's great! :-)
 
A couple of recent examples of consumer and political idiocy.

My girlfriend asked a patient, owner of a new EV, what happens when His car runs out of charge before He makes it home. (He took a loss on his gas-powered car when he traded it in for the EV in the midst of frustration with current fuel prices). He answered "there is an app that tells me where the closest charging station is"

In Atlanta, there are very few alternate routes. Drivers must drive heavily clogged freeways to get where they want to go. It can take as many as 4 changes in traffic lights before one gets off the highway and onto a bumper-to-bumper feeder road.

While reading our county paper Saturday an article outlined a debate on where to install some 30 or so charging stations that would meet qualifications for federal money to install more. Some folks suggested shopping centers or parks. Others seemed to think service stations/convenience stores were the logical spots.

My first thought was how many drivers will be happy about sitting at a crowded convenience store in 90 degrees watching the workers of Atlanta buy burritos and big gulps for 30 minutes? Is it OK if I turn the AC or heat on while my car charges?

For the record, I'm all for reducing consumption...of everything, with logical solutions.
 
@sheward, Here where I live in Orange County, CA a lot of the grocery stores have chargers in their parking lots BUT I never see anybody using them. Not sure why unless kw cost is to high OR everybody has home chargers.

There are a lot (I mean A LOT) of EVs around here mostly Teslas.

I intend to go down with the ICEs

lol
 
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