Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

[ace10]

Mercedes doesn't have anything on offer in our search pattern.

The EQS is just awful. That car puts the Uggg in ugly. Sorry to anybody who likes the design.

I really thought there was a glimmer of hope with the BMW I4, but then she saw the dashboard, and it was over. Good grief, they stuck a curved screen onto an existing dash design and then added a massive exposed bracket to support it. I've seen cleaner installs in street cars converted for track duty.




I kinda like the Polestar 2 or the small Volvo siblings. But she's not having any of that. Which basically leaves the VAG offerings and the Mach E.

Such a bad time to "need" a car.

New Vehicle Inventory, Stuck Near Record Lows, Gets Worse as Buyers Shift from Trucks to Economical Cars, which Vanish | Wolf Street

 

[ace10]

I've convinced the wife to sign up for a test drive/demo of a Polestar 2. They bring the car to you, so it should be a low-effort affair.
Thinking of this as a getting-the-ball-rolling situation.
At the same time I put a refundable deposit (reservation) on a Polestar build spot in October (or later). Virtually no risk and that's "only" four months away.

I was playing with their calculators, since I really want an easy out on her next car, and found that they are truly porking customers on leases. And I mean HARD.

On a $67K vehicle, total out of pocket over 39 months (including the $7500 Fed tax credit Volvo credit keeps) is $42500. They don't disclose the MF, so I can't do any meaningful analysis, but that's gotta be something like a 42-45% residual, which seems absurdly low.
Plus the usual junk fees associated with a car transaction.

Gonna just play it by ear.

 

[dionphaneuf]

I've heard good things about the Polestar 2 from friends who have them. The new Kia EV6 is priced similarly but has better range and fast charge performance (it's market leading, better than any Tesla) and is slightly more comfort oriented albeit a bit bigger and I've heard they are tricky to get now due to demand (ADU....eugh). I think either is a great choice.

I think those residual %s are low - used Teslas are insane (like, get payed money to drive a car for 3 years insane) now. Hard to know what shape the petroleum world will be in at that point but it's probably a decent guess buyers will be wanting EVs just as much as then if not more.

If you want to go dumb/cheap commuter, they are practically giving Bolts away. Crappy fast charging but if you want an appliance EV and nothing more it's probably your best bet.

 

[ace10]

What my wife wants is an etron GT RS. I'm trying to find middle ground. That's Volvo/Polestar/I4 territory.
She spends 2++ hours commuting each day, so she's not going to drive something she hates. I don't blame her, but super high end BEVs make no sense, IMO. It's all disposable crap.

 

[Jlaa]

I've heard good things about the Polestar 2 from friends who have them. The new Kia EV6 is priced similarly but has better range and fast charge performance (it's market leading, better than any Tesla) and is slightly more comfort oriented albeit a bit bigger and I've heard they are tricky to get now due to demand (ADU....eugh). I think either is a great choice.

I think those residual %s are low - used Teslas are insane (like, get payed money to drive a car for 3 years insane) now. Hard to know what shape the petroleum world will be in at that point but it's probably a decent guess buyers will be wanting EVs just as much as then if not more.

If you want to go dumb/cheap commuter, they are practically giving Bolts away. Crappy fast charging but if you want an appliance EV and nothing more it's probably your best bet.

Is the Kia EV6 the same thing as the Hyundai Ioniq5 under the skin?

 

[Bogeyman]

She spends 2++ hours commuting each day

To me, that is almost tragic. We need the Jetsons to materialize....

 

[ace10]

The commuter bus service (express-ish) prior to 2020 was great option. She was using it at least a couple times per week. Cheap, quick and relatively stress-free. But now the schedules and routes are extremely limited and there doesn't seem to be any interest by the county to get it back up running at full strength. They want to think that our new Metro-line-to-nowhere ⟨™⟩ is going to solve traffic problems. Though we're at least a year or two behind on construction. And the transit times will be horrible, because there is no express service. Just thirty something miles of local trains to get into DC.

 

[dionphaneuf]

@ace10 not sure if this is available near you but it seems quite nice, for the price - much more restrained inside and out than the German EVs. Again, good range and fast charging. A version based on the GV70 SUV is coming soon as well.

Tested: 2023 Genesis Electrified G80 Bridges the EV Gap

Genesis's mid-size luxury sedan takes its first step toward a fully electric future.

www.caranddriver.com

Edit: If it were me, I'd buy a Tesla Model 3. Great charging network that is well integrated to the UI, good ADAS for lane keep assist/cruise, and while there are cosmetic fit/finish issues the fundamentals (drive units, batteries, etc) have proven reliability along with the biggest user base/strength in numbers. But I totally get this isn't for everyone.

 

[maw1124]

What my wife wants is an etron GT RS. I'm trying to find middle ground. That's Volvo/Polestar/I4 territory.
She spends 2++ hours commuting each day, so she's not going to drive something she hates. I don't blame her, but super high end BEVs make no sense, IMO. It's all disposable crap.

Are they still too risky to buy outright as opposed to leasing? Just buy the Polestar, and after 3 years, you’ll likely have the option to sell and recoup, the way we’re going with these chips.

maw

 

[ace10]

As seen at the #VeryGreen Glastonbury festival



A mere £50 (or £80, depending on the report) for an hour's worth of electrons from a diesel-powered car charger.


Also. After Glastonbury:

 

[LWB250]

This would explain why when I was at the dealer today the sales floor was literally empty and there were few cars on the lot. I was sort of stunned when I saw this as I had to enter through the sales floor because I couldn't get a space near the service entrance, and I'm used to having to thread my way around cars on the sales floor when this occurs.

Place was like a morgue and they didn't even have anything in the dedicated AMG area, which is really unusual.

Dan

 

[gsxr]

As seen at the #VeryGreen Glastonbury festival
A mere £50 (or £80, depending on the report) for an hour's worth of electrons from a diesel-powered car charger.

You'd think EV owners would, on principle, refuse to charge from a soot-spewing diesel charger... and instead opt to have their EV towed home, or to the nearest supercharger. (Probably towed via diesel-powered tow truck - hmm, that might not work either.)

 

[ace10]

The "current" state of play for selected BEVs.

We did a demo on a Polestar 2. Decent little car. Interior much better than expected. The paint had light to medium orange peel from stem to stern. Apparently "normal" for that factory. We did decide to keep the order in place and let it ride.
However, what I've gleaned since then is that as soon as the company SPAC'd, existing orders that had "firm" build/delivery dates all got pushed out. In some cases way out. I estimate that my mid-June order is best-case a Jan-Feb 2023 build. And that's only if I change to an optional wheel, as they've claim to have run out of the standard 19" wheel. The soft commit when I ordered was "October 2022 or later."

The BMW I4 became a front runner. Based on the price point, and being backed by a major auto manufacturer. The demo unit we saw wasn't as hodge-podgey as it looks in pics. Zero inventory anywhere. If I ordered today, the car would be delivered in Feb/Mar 2023.

There are a few Volvo C40/XC40's around, but she really doesn't like the appearance. So I've had to drop it.

There is a decent selection of Audi e-tron GTs around. The price point and modest e-range must be holding sales back. They can be had for MSRP in many markets.

Ford dealers are wanting $10-20K over sticker on Mach E GTs. Ain't gonna happen. You'd have to be nuts to pay over on a first gen E-vehicle.

Model 3 orders are running 1-2 months. Model Y is heavily dependent on config... basically 1 to 9 months.


Electrification of America's fleet of cars ain't happening any time soon.

 

[alabbasi]

I read somewhere that there may be a shortage of DEF on the horizon. Should be fun seeing all these 18 wheelers go into limp mode. What a s**t show.

 

[Duh_Vinci]

I read somewhere that there may be a shortage of DEF on the horizon. Should be fun seeing all these 18 wheelers go into limp mode. What a s**t show.

One can only imagine the impact on everything that requires any form of delivery (and that pretty much means just about EVERYTHING)...

 

[ace10]

The "current" state of play for selected BEVs.

...
There is a decent selection of Audi e-tron GTs around. The price point and modest e-range must be holding sales back. They can be had for MSRP in many markets.
...

Drove one today. Nice car, but it feels like it's built to a lesser standard than an A8/S8.
I've seen similar mentions in YT reviews for the MB EQS.

For ordered cars, the dealer said to expect one year for delivery. UNLESS I place an order which includes an "exclusive" paint shade. Which is one of about 30-ish special colors that are pre-approved but not on the order form. Audi batches up the builds for each color and does them together, so an order could get pulled forward OR pushed back based on other orders for that same color. TBH, I was barely paying attention by that point. And maybe I missed something.

I dunno, this whole thing is effing nuts. But the wife's car has been at the dealer for a month. And they won't even return my calls.

 

[Jlaa]

The voice of reason:

EVs Aren't a 'Silver Bullet' for Climate Change, Says Toyota's Top Scientist

Toyota's brightest mind believes EVs are only one component of a climate solution that also includes hybrid and hydrogen power.

www.thedrive.com

 

[gsxr]

The voice of reason:

EVs Aren't a 'Silver Bullet' for Climate Change, Says Toyota's Top Scientist

Toyota's brightest mind believes EVs are only one component of a climate solution that also includes hybrid and hydrogen power.

www.thedrive.com

That made a lot of sense. I expect the poor guy to be cancelled immediately for not drinking the Kool-Aid.

 

[RicardoD]

The voice of reason:

EVs Aren't a 'Silver Bullet' for Climate Change, Says Toyota's Top Scientist

Toyota's brightest mind believes EVs are only one component of a climate solution that also includes hybrid and hydrogen power.

www.thedrive.com

Says scientist employed by company that has probably put billions into Hydrogen power.... (don't mind me I am just trolling, haven't read article yet, as any good internet troll would do)

 

[Jlaa]

The new Toyota Crown is gonna be released in a couple days.
The scuttlebutt is that there will be a hybrid plug-in version.
If they keep that under 40K USD, I'd totally get one..... and given that the USD <-> JPY exchange rate is so strong, I have high hopes for attractive pricing.

First Look Review: The 2024 Toyota Crown Hybrid is for the SUV-averse

The 2024 Toyota Crown hybrid sedan has started arriving at U.S. dealerships. Here our experience with the raised sedan in the 'Platinum' grade.

topelectricsuv.com

https://www.carscoops.com/2022/07/2023-toyota-crown-teased-one-final-time-ahead-of-july-15-debut/

 

[RicardoD]

Can't you find a used one of these instead?

 

[Jlaa]

Can't you find a used one of these instead?

View attachment 149674

Yes I love the Crown Comfort --- those are mostly LPG powered!

 

[sheward]

Seems like the pinnacle of the fleet boldly offering 4! seats. But wait, what's this at the curb, seemingly the same model offering an additional seat!

 

[Jlaa]

Seems like the pinnacle of the fleet boldly offering 4! seats. But wait, what's this at the curb, seemingly the same model offering an additional seat!

Those are HK taxis. They have to advertise how many passengers they are legally allowed to convey. Sometimes you can find one with a bench seat in the front (with a transmission lever on the tree) and those taxis can carry 5 passengers!

 

[gerryvz]

I have ridden in those Crowns many times in Singapore (taxis).

 

[alabbasi]

I just saw an EQS for the first time on the road yesterday. Just because it's electric, did they have to make it look like a ugly child of a Prius and Tesla?

 

[gerryvz]

 

[gsxr]

Only $15k? Must not be a Porsche.

 

[gerryvz]

Only $15k? Must not be a Porsche.

Yep. I was just reading an article earlier this week on the prices of full battery replacements for various EV brands and models. $15K is on the very low end, like for a pedestrian Nissan or Kia. Anything above that, like an MB or a Tesla, is multiples of that. And, of course, due to supply chain issues -- minimum two and sometimes six-plus months to actually get one's hands on a replacement battery.

So, not only do you have to pay $20-50K for a new battery, but your nice EV is down for a period of months waiting for the battery when it fails. If it doesn't go up in flames sitting in your garage first, over night.

#ace10

 

[JC220]

View attachment 150421

I am starting to hear stories now of the reluctance of regular mechanics to look at EVs.

A work colleague had an issue with his new EV and rang his trusted mechanic. He asked "did you try turning it on and off again?"

 

[ace10]

For us, the battery failure resulted in nine months out of service.
Estimated all-in cost to PCNA: $32-35K. 100% warranty covered.

For the most recent issue, the car came back to us this past weekend. Five weeks to diagnose, source and replace the battery "chiller" as it's describe in the paperwork.
Original estimate was $1700 for the repair. However due to this part's failure, something happened to the cabin HVAC system. Dealer wanted $2200 to fix. Which apparently wasn't the full cost of repair. Plus five weeks of a Macan loaner.

From the day I dropped the car off for repair, I asked about whether this problem is covered by the 96 month hybrid battery system warranty.
Asked PCNA for a copy of the warranty language. They couldn't produce it.
Asked the dealer for assistance on the yes/no with respect to warranty, they deferred to PCNA.
Left a message for my contact who's the Regional PCNA service guy. Who knows the "history" of the car.

They ended up goodwilling everything but the oil change. Loaner plus repairs were easily five grand. NOBODY could point to exclusionary language or even point to any language, since NOBODY has the warranty document. Unfugginbelievable.


I immediately put the car on Autotrader. Asking about 33% more than the trade offers I'm getting. Will give it a week or so, then just throw the keys at a dealer.

So many flakes out there who are shopping for this car and have no clue about the value (cost) of a new battery. They want to comp mine against others that are showing 8-9 mile battery range. Pssst... that's the end of life. Good luck with that.

Here's the stats from this AM drive. That's roughly 34 battery miles, assuming 30mpg gas. When new, the e range was 12 to 15 miles.

 

[ace10]

Right now, in theory, a refurb'd 9.6kwh battery is available for around $13K. If you could find an indy capable and willing to take on all the complexities of the replacement, I think you'd be in and out for maybe $16-17K.

 

[alabbasi]

Churn and burn. I expect that both legislators and manufacturers are fully aware of this and likely working together knowing that new cars will likely become obsolete in 5-10 years. The green aspect is BS and the consumer / tax payer will lose.

 

[gsxr]

Now now, I'm certain the new EV's being sold today are 100% recyclable! Of course, that isn't free...

 

[nocfn]

...and folks scratch their head at 32 year old cars driving daily.

 

[ace10]

Looking at a particular car in Knoxville TN. This is one of fewer than a dozen which are viable purchase candidates. Search radius of 500 miles. (I'm not kidding when I've mentioned how few cars are available)

Then did a rough route plan for driving it home. As I've done with countless ICE vehicles from FL, GA, NY, MA, KY, etc.
It's right around 490 miles drive. So planned for a two-stopper strategy. Well guess what... there are exactly three Fast Charger on the route. And none are directly on the highway. It's I-81 for all but a couple of miles on each end. If any of these are out of service, then it might be Level 2 charging and MANY hours of sitting.

This whole thing is a bad joke, IMO. There's NFW for the average person to a) to find a BEV, b) have the resources to purchase the overpriced BEV and then c) continue on with their normal routines.

 

[ace10]

My eight year PHEV adventure ended this weekend in Charlottesville.

Traded the Panamera for an Audi e-tron GT. I'm not hugely optimistic this will be anything approaching ease of ownership on the level of Toyota, but it's new and the wife is happy.

It drives quite nicely. Direct, for the most part, but the steering is numb. As they all are these days.

 

[TerryA]

My eight year PHEV adventure ended this weekend in Charlottesville.

Traded the Panamera for an Audi e-tron GT. I'm not hugely optimistic this will be anything approaching ease of ownership on the level of Toyota, but it's new and the wife is happy.

It drives quite nicely. Direct, for the most part, but the steering is numb. As they all are these days.

View attachment 150556

@ace10,

Well, it looks nice Good Luck

lol

 

[ace10]

Tesla Cuts Car's Range By 30%, Demands $4,500 to Get It Back

A person who bought a used 2013 Model S is now being charged $4,500 to unlock the full range of the vehicle, according to a now-viral Twitter thread.

futurism.com

If they're gonna pull this shit, then for the initial "purchase" just make the transaction a perpetual software license with the vehicle included at no charge. Or offer it aaS.


You will own nothing, and like it.

 

[RicardoD]

If you read that article that car has an interesting history of battery changes after purchase with an upgrade to the battery (from a 60 to a 90), a main computer changes in the car after that.... not a cool thing for Tesla to be doing but this is very far from the more normal experience of buying a Tesla and then handing it off unchanged to a second owner. Click bait title.

 

[ace10]

Lower capacity battery might not have been available.
Larger battery might have been installed as goodwill.
Who knows?

Even if this is a one-off incident, it speaks to TSLAs view of private property. Either the car belongs to the owner, or it doesn't.

 

[Bogeyman]

Reminds me of BMWs $18/mo lease for heated seats.

 

[gerryvz]

We're now officially in a recession.

Has anyone decided to sell their car yet?

 

[RicardoD]

I am willing to do my part to help. I am now offerring an exchange program, you get a 2012 Nissan Leaf ELECTRIC vehicle, if you turn in your gas guzzling E500 to me. No questions asked.

You get an extension cord bonus if your car comes with a functional .036 rear exhaust hanger.

 

[alabbasi]

We're now officially in a recession.

Has anyone decided to sell their car yet?

I could have sworn we were when my leads dried up in Q1

 

[szvook]

 

[ace10]

The guy talks about the "science" by comparing the energy densities of gasoline vs battery, but doesn't delve into energy conversion efficiency?

That gasoline generates power at a fraction the efficiency of the battery. A small, small fraction.

 

[ace10]

I know you guys are super-hot for updates, so here it goes:

New Gas Station Lists Electricity Price Right Next To Gas

One Denver gas station lists the price of electrons and the price of a gallon of gas next to each other. Is that the future of convenience stores?

www.thedrive.com

My take: smart move to display pricing. $0.15/kwh is what I'm paying at home in VA (all-in). So that wouldn't be a draw. But that'd be cheap for Pacific coast and Northeast.
The 50kw rate is pretty awful. NFW would I sit in the car for an hour to fill up. Most Electrify America "pumps" are running 150kw. Some are 350kw. The wife's new car can theoretically fill at 270kw. EA is the subsidiary that VAG was forced to create as part of the Dieselgate punishment. Three years of "free" charging are included with new car purchase.

Related: Sheetz gas stations are going full-bore with car charging stations on property. Superchargers, EA and EVGO. I read that 14% of Sheetz locations have DC fast chargers. Most are of the TSLA flavor.


Significant downturn in BEV and PHEV sales in Europe.

Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Decreased 8% In June 2022

Roughly 220,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in Europe in June, which is 8% less than a year ago.

insideevs.com

 

[TerryA]

I know you guys are super-hot for updates, so here it goes:

New Gas Station Lists Electricity Price Right Next To Gas

One Denver gas station lists the price of electrons and the price of a gallon of gas next to each other. Is that the future of convenience stores?

www.thedrive.com

My take: smart move to display pricing. $0.15/kwh is what I'm paying at home in VA (all-in). So that wouldn't be a draw. But that'd be cheap for Pacific coast and Northeast.
The 50kw rate is pretty awful. NFW would I sit in the car for an hour to fill up. Most Electrify America "pumps" are running 150kw. Some are 350kw. The wife's new car can theoretically fill at 270kw. EA is the subsidiary that VAG was forced to create as part of the Dieselgate punishment. Three years of "free" charging are included with new car purchase.

Related: Sheetz gas stations are going full-bore with car charging stations on property. Superchargers, EA and EVGO. I read that 14% of Sheetz locations have DC fast chargers. Most are of the TSLA flavor.


Significant downturn in BEV and PHEV sales in Europe.

Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Decreased 8% In June 2022

Roughly 220,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in Europe in June, which is 8% less than a year ago.

insideevs.com

@ace10, Out of curiosity, If your wife’s new Audi. e-Tron GT’s battery capacity is 270kw if I understand you correctly. At a cost of $0.15 per kw fill up = $40.50.

How far will that get you down the road?

Just trying to relate that to our gas guzzlers.


I know you guys are super-hot for updates, so here it goes:

New Gas Station Lists Electricity Price Right Next To Gas

One Denver gas station lists the price of electrons and the price of a gallon of gas next to each other. Is that the future of convenience stores?

www.thedrive.com

My take: smart move to display pricing. $0.15/kwh is what I'm paying at home in VA (all-in). So that wouldn't be a draw. But that'd be cheap for Pacific coast and Northeast.
The 50kw rate is pretty awful. NFW would I sit in the car for an hour to fill up. Most Electrify America "pumps" are running 150kw. Some are 350kw. The wife's new car can theoretically fill at 270kw. EA is the subsidiary that VAG was forced to create as part of the Dieselgate punishment. Three years of "free" charging are included with new car purchase.

Related: Sheetz gas stations are going full-bore with car charging stations on property. Superchargers, EA and EVGO. I read that 14% of Sheetz locations have DC fast chargers. Most are of the TSLA flavor.


Significant downturn in BEV and PHEV sales in Europe.

Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Decreased 8% In June 2022

Roughly 220,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in Europe in June, which is 8% less than a year ago.

insideevs.com

@ace10, That E-Tron GT looks like a beautiful car. I hope you have better luck with it than the Panamera.

This is no reflection against you Ace or anyone else with an EV but I just had my first ride in an EV. It was a Tesla model Y. It belongs to a friend of mine who doesn’t follow the 500Eboard. If he did I wouldn’t be writing this.

I was very impressed with the acceleration but not much else. I thought that the interior was very plain and uninspiring. The leather seats were well constructed and looked nice but quite hard I thought. Being used to looking at a traditional dashboard and what the Y called a dashboard to me is only something a Gen Z computer geek could love. It’s just a 12”x 20” screen over a car wide split/stepped dash board. The split is where the AC comes out.

It sets on 22” Michelin tires. The ride was quite stiff although very quite but it was on a very smooth asphalt street.

No way would I put down the $75K my friend paid for this car. That’s a lot of upfront $$$ to pay just to get better gas mileage. I’m not sure it could make it from LA to Las Vegas on one charge. There’s only a few stops out in that freeking desert and I would hate to get caught out there on a 100 degree day.

It’s probably my age but I still prefer petroleum fueled cars.

Again this is only my opinion.

lol

 

[Jlaa]

I know you guys are super-hot for updates, so here it goes:

New Gas Station Lists Electricity Price Right Next To Gas

One Denver gas station lists the price of electrons and the price of a gallon of gas next to each other. Is that the future of convenience stores?

www.thedrive.com

My take: smart move to display pricing. $0.15/kwh is what I'm paying at home in VA (all-in). So that wouldn't be a draw. But that'd be cheap for Pacific coast and Northeast.
The 50kw rate is pretty awful. NFW would I sit in the car for an hour to fill up. Most Electrify America "pumps" are running 150kw. Some are 350kw. The wife's new car can theoretically fill at 270kw. EA is the subsidiary that VAG was forced to create as part of the Dieselgate punishment. Three years of "free" charging are included with new car purchase.

Related: Sheetz gas stations are going full-bore with car charging stations on property. Superchargers, EA and EVGO. I read that 14% of Sheetz locations have DC fast chargers. Most are of the TSLA flavor.


Significant downturn in BEV and PHEV sales in Europe.

Europe: Plug-In Car Sales Decreased 8% In June 2022

Roughly 220,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in Europe in June, which is 8% less than a year ago.

insideevs.com

That's fascinating and what a good development to display pricing for EV charging!



For what it is worth, I have, just last month, installed independently metered EV charging circuits (220V, 40A) at a rental property. So far, lessees still have "normal" cars - Land Rovers, BMW M440i, Audi Q5, etc. I'm interested to see when someone shows up with an EV.