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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

Ace,

Thanks for sharing, I just figuring out these details, because the cars themselves are beautiful but the actual charging experiences on long distance trips is a crap shoot involving so many variables. I just looked up the Taycan and...

Porsche Taycan models with the larger 93.4 kWh battery are capable of ultra-rapid charging at up to 270 kW DC, and Taycan models with the 79.2 kWh battery are able to charge at up to 225 kW DC
The Taycan and Audi etron GT are platform mates. 270kw is among the fastest. But the problem is that there are very few 350kw stations out there. 150kw is considered to be a "fast" DC Fast charger.

The reality is that even with the 150kw rate, you don't get that for the entire charge. It slows down as the battery approaches maximum state of charge. In my experience, you might get 150kw up to 60% SOC, but then it throttles back to ~100kw heading to the normal 80% max charge. I actually have only charged to 100% once, and that was on the Level 2 at home.
 
Jiaa,

Jlaa, from that YouTuber I follow, with Tesla, no problem. They have a reliable charging network and charging hardware, properly maintained. If you are not in a Tesla you are venturing into a bit of a crapshoot. Wouldnt be a problem for you but for a normal person (i.e. my wife) she would kill me if I forced her into an experience like that.
Ok. Can you write me into your will for your Hazet tools? BTW I think you need a Mercedes EV. All the best!

XOXO -jlaa


EDIT - in all seriousness though, wouldn’t Ms. RicardoD just charge from home and never use a public charger, thus making BEV brand selection irrelevant?
 
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EDIT - in all seriousness though, wouldn’t Ms. RicardoD just charge from home and never use a public charger, thus making BEV brand selection irrelevant?
Yes, right now, my future automotive plan (which is always changing) is to get a BEV for the wife where charging at home is fine, and then getting a regular gas car Grand Tourer for long distance road trips I plan to start this year. I am an empty nester now and am free from aligning my vacation to the kid's vacation.
 
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This is exactly what I do and I represent the perfect use case …. But I will not spend $60K plus (that’s serious money) for this use case!!!!

$25K or maaaaaaaybe $30K and I would spend it, provided I could drive the thing into the ground over a 10 year period. 😃
wow, i would only spend like 8k max!
 
I mean if you are a dorky male software engineer looking for love amongst other dorky male software engineers then I guess so? 😅
is that juice subsidized?

my cousin just bout a tesla 6 months ago and already put 20kmi on it and he lives in s. bay so the math really worked out for him. his wife has a prius and he use to have a built drag car before that.
 
wow, i would only spend like 8k max!
That would be my preference too, but Mrs. Jlaa demands that shared daily drivers must inly be NEW vehicles and not used vehicles. 🙁

is that juice subsidized?

my cousin just bout a tesla 6 months ago and already put 20kmi on it and he lives in s. bay so the math really worked out for him. his wife has a prius and he use to have a built drag car before that.
That juice ain’t subsidized at Best Buy! 🤪
 
Why are you guys so interested in BEV? In the opinion of Toyota’s CEO everybody is jumping on board to soon. He feels that another source of energy will prevail.

Another issue is what happens to all of these BEVs when the battery needs replacement and it costs more than the car is worth?

Plus what happens to all of the old batteries?

Also I read somewhere that they have to mine tons of earth to get enough lithium to make one battery pack?

I would never pay $60K for a BEV just to save money on fuel. To me it ridiculous.

Anyway, my plan is to continue with the ICE vehicles until I have no other choice.

Just my personal opinion.

lol
 
Why are you guys so interested in BEV? In the opinion of Toyota’s CEO everybody is jumping on board to soon. He feels that another source of energy will prevail.
I posted about this elsewhere by my long weekend putting about 250 miles on my Dad's Tesla Model 3 was one of the best general driving experiences I have ever had. Quiet, incredible throttle response, smooth, great stereo and never stopped at a gas station (charge overnight at home). The maintenance on that car has been practically non-exist. I had no issues with the build quality. I left that experience thinking why would I ever buy a new ICE car again? (counter arguments are battery longevity, charging on long distance trips on a non-Tesla network, and initial price to get into one of these vehicles).
 
@ace10 peak fast charging rates are a bit misleading. It's easier to do on a bigger pack (losses go as I^2, current goes as Charge Rate/Pack size) so it favors those platforms. What really matters is the integral of charging and the vehicle efficiency; that tells the story of how long to gain X mi of range (which is what the spec should be). Things like peak charge power and time from y to z % State of Charge aren't really helpful. To their credit, Mercedes holds the peak charge rate for a fairly long time and then tapers quite slowly - ie a good integral. If you take the other approach and race to a much higher peak you risk overheating the pack and then killing your charge rate. The challenge is that you may still do better for miles in 10 mins, but worse in miles in 20 or 30, so without a priori knowledge of the distance you're driving you can't know the best option. In any case, the EPA or consumer reports needs to come up with a 'time to drive 400mi' test, where the driver can choose their speed and make as many stops as they want but incurr a fixed 10 min penalty with each.
1673035164197.png


From a perspective of charge speed and range the EQS does great - Car And Driver just got 400mi from the lower hp model, so you'd be able to add 250 mi ish in 30 mins. Not terrible. Sadly, it's quite fugly to my eyes and that HyperScreen...yuck. All the reviews say it has terrible UI as well. I'd also be a bit worried about whether or not that charging network works as well as the Tesla one.

The networks have grown extremely quickly (<10 years) and charge times have gone up rapidly. In ten years both will be even better, and it's manageable save a few edge cases as is.

The Bolt is quite cheap now at $27k and at 260 mi it's quite usable for day to day and shorter trips. They had $50/mo leases before the pandemic...that's basically a free car.

Battery deplition with mileage is negligible in many cases (5-10% max in high mileage Teslas with a big plateau) and the end of life recycling chain is established and growing (look up Redwood Materials).

@Jlaa are you normalizing the dorky software engineer male Tesla owners you see for the extremely high % of dorky male software engineers that exist in the bay area?
 
@Jlaa are you normalizing the dorky software engineer male Tesla owners you see for the extremely high % of dorky male software engineers that exist in the bay area?

Yes of course. Soooooo maaaaammmmyyyy dorky male software engineers. I mean c’mon, you and I and @RicardoD all fit the dorky male software engineer trope too …… only we are in the slightly expanded “dorky male hw engineer / project mgmt / product mgmt” trope. 😅
 
If you're touting 30+ minute charge time from depleted to 80% as something noteworthy, then I guess we're operating in entirely different universes. And that's based on infrastructure that exceeds 200kw, which is a microscopic segment of DC Fast chargers today. Half an hour to accomplish what an ICE vehicle can do in well under 10 is simply awful. But that's the state of BEV's today.

But let's be clear: Mercedes' 200kw (EQS) or 170kw (EQE) charge rate is lower than its competitors. And it's limited by in-vehicle hardware, so no amount of post-delivery SW massaging will ever change that. Whereas limited drive efficiency and battery management tweaks will always be possible down the road.

170<200<250<270<297

Here's an image I posted previously from a charging session this past Summer using a 150kw EA machine. I can get the max 150kw+ through 60% SOC. Then the taper begins, with it winding down to ~100kw at the 80% SOC mark. Hook the Audi up the DC Fast source that the EQS was using, and it would walk all over the Merc's chart. The car is calculating range being added at the rate of 401 miles per hour of charging. And again, that's at only 150kw. The capacity of 270kw exists onboard. I have no idea what that charge curve would look like, since I've never hook to anything exceeding 150.

I'm not saying that ANY of today's BEV's are good compared to ICE vehicle. I'm saying that Merc is worse than the best of them when it comes to charging specs. And yes, the EQX sedans are fugly.

20220829_121645-jpg.153329



mph = miles of (estimated) range added per hour. I know this got a few of you really wrapped around the axle last time.
 
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The Atlantic ran a story yesterday critical of today's large, heavy BEVs. I don't have a sub, does anyone have the ability to post it?
 
Heres a lengthy analysis if anyone is interested.

This was a good article. Best thing I can do for environment is maintain my E500 which needs and oil change this weekend! Approaching 197,000 miles
 
Good doc somewhat related is "Who killed the electric car". Pretty interesting if you can find it on a streaming service.
 
Here is a PDF of the atlantic article that states that a 9,000 lb electric hummer is a bad idea.
The writer blames consumers for larger vehicles. Zero mention of mandated vehicle systems and crash standards making cars larger and heavier in the thirty year timeframe repeatedly mentioned.

And then there's this:

"As automakers design faster, bigger cars, they are squandering a chance to make EVs safer than their predecessors"

If the occupants of a Telsa can survive a 250' plunge off a cliff, then yeah, I'd say these cars are pretty damn safe.
 
Yeah, that is a fair point about charging speed on the Benz needing improvement. The Hyundai Ioniq5 can do 200 mi in 18 minutes on a 350kW charger, and the new Tesla Model S is about the same. I think the Lucid is similar or better. That's really good and a huge improvement on where the first Tesla's were in 2012/3. If the technology can cut that time down by another 50% or so to get that close to 10 minutes I think we're really at a wash to ICE cars. Yes, it's a touch longer than it takes to fill your tank on an ICE car, but that's only on road trips - your overall idle time if you have a home charger is waaaay lower, so it's a small trade off.
 
Like a mirage, the change is coming. Problem is most manufacturers are playing catch up to Elon Papa.

Tesla announced 1MW charging capabilities while other manufacturers are di&king around with sub 200kw charging.

Plus, they recently demonstrated a fully loaded semi with 80k lbs doing 500 miles on a single charge.


With the reset of federal incentive program, will be interesting to see if EV adoption accelerates. I am with you guys…. as exciting this tech is, it is still in its infancy and too expensive.
 
Elon also announced the Cybertruck in 2018.
And the Roadster in 2017.

So there's that.

And then there's this:

Shipping and logistics companies won't tolerate serving as Beta testers.

FlrDKmwakAEzKLB?format=jpg.jpg
 
I wish Tesla would just advertise based upon the documented real world advantages in performance and charging network. They have no PR department and not sure if they even have a marketing department. I guess when you can sell everything you make you don't bother?

FSD is also becoming a big joke. It is always next year.

 
I wish Tesla would just advertise based upon the documented real world advantages in performance and charging network. They have no PR department and not sure if they even have a marketing department. I guess when you can sell everything you make you dont bother?

FSD is also becoming a big joke. It is always next year.

In Tech-bro-Tesla-worship-land (Norcal SF Bay aea) I feel like Tesla’s biggest challenge is that the auto industry is a fashion industry and Tesla is selling fashions from many seasons back. Hyundai / Lucid / Rivian / GM / Polestar / Kia / Audi / Canoo / RAM is selling next year’s hot fashions but Tesla is selling Mom jeans.

The charging / tech / perform could be cooler than froyo but if style is dated then ….
Its tough. Even the 2024 Prius is a looker compared to the Model X/S/Y/3 …. At least in 2023. People don’t spend $$$$ to buy the vehicular equivalent of a dad-bod unless its cheap.
 
i stubbled upon this video, fast forward to 3:33 - 6:50 @1.75 speed: essentially the progression shouldve gone w/ ice to hybrid, then to alternative fuel/battery - w/ the rush to zero emission vehicles, you couldve made a lot more hybrids w/ a wider range of vehicles

 
Some unsexy eye candy, im top left:
Arrrghhhh my 👀 eyes! It burns 🔥!!!!

To be fair, I look at Toyota as the Warren Buffet of automakers. Nothing sexy, no bleeding edge ultra-growth technology, no hyperbole.

Just solid, mundane, cash flow, day in and day out. Hybrid powertrains in mundanemobiles (Rav4, Sienna, Corolla, Camry, Highlander, Venza, Prius ….. all hybrid mundanemobiles) throw off tons of cash for Toyota Motor.
 
i remember back around 2009, i got to drive a new prius - almost hit the 500 mile per fill mark but was omw to a wedding rehearsal w/ 3 more adults in the car and thought i shouldnt risk it (was at 480 mile). and i pulled up in one of these to buy a maserati - told the dealer it was a balance since i was supposedly already reducing my carbon footprint, thanks BP
 
i stubbled upon this video, fast forward to 3:33 - 6:50 @1.75 speed: essentially the progression shouldve gone w/ ice to hybrid, then to alternative fuel/battery - w/ the rush to zero emission vehicles, you couldve made a lot more hybrids w/ a wider range of vehicles

This is totally on point. Thanks for posting this @duuder. For those that didn’t click, the gist is this:

We have a finite amount of resources to make batteries, and WAY MORE gallons of gasoline could have been saved and WAY LESS carbon emissions could have been emitted had we spread those battery resources among making 14 million hybrid cars instead of the 300K BEVs that were made last year.
 
This is totally on point. Thanks for posting this @duuder. For those that didn’t click, the gist is this:

We have a finite amount of resources to make batteries, and WAY MORE gallons of gasoline could have been saved and WAY LESS carbon emissions could have been emitted had we spread those battery resources among making 14 million hybrid cars instead of the 300K BEVs that were made last year.
Stupid question: How much of the battery materials can be recycled and (theoretically) used in production of new batteries?

Seems like a forced transition from one allegedly limited resource (fossil fuels) to other, even more limited resources (lithium/etc) needed for batteries. Makes you wonder if an easier fix to the CO2 "problem" would be just to plant more trees.


:shark:
 
Stupid question: How much of the battery materials can be recycled and (theoretically) used in production of new batteries?

Seems like a forced transition from one allegedly limtied resource (fossil fuels) to other, even more limited resources (lithium/etc) needed for batteries. Makes you wonder if an easier fix to the CO2 problem would be just to plant more trees.


:shark:
The recovery rate for the lithium batteries that is used today ranged approx. between 50-61 percent. The main parts of the batteries is cobalt, litium and nickel that according to scientists they are hard to obtain and they panic now to meet the fossil fuel free regulations in 2030. There are other sources that could theoretically recycling up to 95 % with high purity as a 2nd life battery for storage when the battery life of a vehicle drops down to 20 percent and that's when it reached the end its of life then unto recycling.

Lithium battery cotains:
  • Aluminium: 15-25%
  • Copper: 5-15%
  • Lithium: 1-10%
  • Cobalt: 1-15%
  • Nickel: 1-15%
  • Iron: 1-20%
  • Paper and plastic: 6-15%

The process of the recycling is very costly because of the physical process and chemical process that occur has consequences for wasting a lot more energy and the industries doesn't produce the same standard lithium batteries so that's why the recovery rate is very low. Each manufacturer of the batteries requires different approach for the recovery. The industries seems to forget that the recycling the materials in terms of energy exchange efficiency cannot have more input than output. Then the recycling itself is meaningless and waste of energy hence not so kind to the environment.

So yeah, planting trees has much better energy exchange ratio than recycling batteries, especially the cutting edge lithium battery.
 
Stupid question: How much of the battery materials can be recycled and (theoretically) used in production of new batteries?

Seems like a forced transition from one allegedly limited resource (fossil fuels) to other, even more limited resources (lithium/etc) needed for batteries. Makes you wonder if an easier fix to the CO2 problem would be just to plant more trees.
It takes mining and processing 500,000 of earth to make one Tesla car battery. That relates to 10 truck & trailer sand trucks that carry 25 tons each for one battery. Google it:)

Next time you come upon a mining facility check out all of the heavy diesel equipment they use to mine. An example can be seen driving on interstate 15 from LA to Las Vegas. I’m not sure what their mining but they have literally knocked down a mountain.
 
Cobalt mining is the stuff of nightmares. Dirt poor folks working in horrendous conditions for next to nothing.
Sadly in this era people are forced to do anything to make a living because the governments failed the societies in the whole world. The new generations make a living now that doesn't contribute to the society as whole which is a disaster. ( Social medias and streaming services )
What I fear most is the A.I that will take over the jobs even more. As an example now today artists protest against A.I because some people using A.I as a tool by copying other artists original work and could derivate the works and then sell even further to make an extra cash, now leaving the artists jobless. And are forced to bake breads or push to other job field until A.I comes in and push them out of the picture even further.
 
From the Jan-2023 Car & Driver, "10 Best Cars 2023" issue. Three MB's were nominated, none made the top 10. Two were EV's.

I thought the comments were funny, see pages 41 and 42 if you have the magazine:


EQE350: "A well-executed luxury transportation appliance with an unimaginative shape and entirely adequate performance." - John Voelcker

EQS450: "This car is a mess, stylistically, dynamically, and strategically." - Joey Capparella

C300: "Worst brake pedal feel in a new car in at least a decade." - Dave VanderWerp
C300: "I didn't find much joy behind the wheel, but I still luxuriated in the comfortable seats and grooved to the rockin' stereo." - Eric Stafford

:yayo:
 
MB is in such a weird uncanny valley between EVs and ICE now. I think there's a massive appetite for classically beautfiul EVs that are competent, ride well, and just comfy with great UI. Instead, MB has gone for these weird ungainly EVs with this weird 'MBUX' system that is waay worse than almost every other UI I've used and also are supposedly a mess dynamically and not that fast. The new ICE S class is getting good reviews and looks decent so the talent is still there at the company, they're just not using it properly. The Genesis G90 EV looks like a Bentley and actually has good range, charging, and performance.

Sidebar but the two high water marks in auto UI design for me were 90s Hondas and the early MMI Audis like the 05+ A6 and A8s that retained just the right amount of hard buttons for volume, tuning, HVAC, and heated seats but added the main central knob with four 'quadrant' contextual buttons for the screen that fell right into the drivers viewpoint and was nicely integrated into the styling. After years of MBs, my dad jumped to Audi with an A6 3.2 Wagon and then a used S8 V10 SWB and those were awesome cars. He eventually ditched the S8 for fears of massive repair bills for his current W212.2 E350 wagon that is a solid car but has an inscrutable UI and a horrendously placed HVAC control system. I always loved the W211 HVAC location.
 
^^^ And what's funny is (or not depending upon perspective) I think all those things are true about just about every new car that comes out these days... stylistic and dynamic messes, well executed as "luxury" transportation appliances, with no joy behind the wheel in terms of acceleration, braking or steering feel, but with rocking stereos.

WTF has the industry become. It used to be they drove well but had shit stereos. Now they have great stereos but...

maw

EDIT, @Draginev yes retrofitting the Audi RNS-E MMI was the first project I did to my C5 Allroad 4.2. Transformed the car to have that head unit, actually. That was in '07 and it's still there today and a main reason (besides the APR Tuned 4.2L and exhaust) that I'm in no hurry to part with the car. It's just right.
 
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This guy says Benz is dropping the EQ brand designation because they are going all electric so it would be redundant...
I read an article yesterday saying the same thing.

If MB makes good on their threat to eliminate combustion engines in their passenger cars, and really go all-in on all-electric... methinks that may be the demise of the brand.

:scratchchin:
 
I read an article yesterday saying the same thing.

If MB makes good on their threat to eliminate combustion engines in their passenger cars, and really go all-in on all-electric... methinks that may be the demise of the brand.

:scratchchin:
And what would THAT do to the value of the classics when MB doesn't even make 'em anymore (let alone make 'em like these).

They're making a huge bet that these range and charging concerns are way overblown political resistance, and that most people drive less than 200 miles a day and charge overnight. That's not a bet you make without information to support it.

maw
 
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Wow …. I read this from Motor Trend and I thought to myself, “Self, it looks like buying a hybrid gasoline/plug in electric car will be my next everyday-car purchase in a couple years. Or maybe another regular non plugin hybrid….. which I have been driving since 2004….. almost 20 years!”

The MT editorial board’s experience with roadtripping in a Hyundai Ioniq5, Rivian, VW ID4, and Ford Lightning just seems sooo …… awful.

And most of this was in I5 in California where there is supposed to be lots of charging infrastructure!


PS - I think Tesla has a better charging infrastructure, but I just can’t bring myself to consider one of those.
 
I have a basic question because I am completely inexperienced at this. If charging away from home is miserable, then how come I see so many people doing it?
Because you are in California / Silicon Valley.

Seriously, please go back and visit the midwest where you grew up. Go to other areas of the country outside of SV/SF/Napa/Marin/LA/OC/SD. Heck - go to Merced or Fresno or Yosemite, or up to Redding or Yreka. You will find that things are very different than the California Coastal bubble.

The bottom line is, no matter how many people try to justify it, is that BEV vehicles leave a LOT to be desired from a technical perspective, and do not have the proper nor consistent nor universal support infrastructure to properly run them in ways that ICE vehicles are used.

I am not saying these issues can't be ironed out (and that they are incrementally being solved), but seriously -- for anything other than local/urban types of use, BEVs are not a viable solution. They just aren't.

Just yesterday I was in Fredericksburg, VA purchasing some furniture at the Pottery Barn Warehouse/Outlet there. I had to rent a 10' U-Haul box truck one-way to transport the furniture back to Annapolis (an 80-mile & 90-minute drive).

If we were in a BEV world, what would my options have been? I wasn't going to leave many thousands of dollars of furniture exposed in the back of a Rivian truck, all the while fretting on the way home that I was getting low on my charge. While in the ICE truck, I used ONE-EIGHTH of a tank of gas coming home, per the gas gauge needle, coming up I-95 and over on I-495 and then US-50 to Annapolis.

I just don't think that BEVs have any practicality beyond urban uses specifically for liberal, urban bi-coastal "elites."
 
I think urban uses anywhere by anyone, actually is where they make sense (except for heavy industrial).

I haven’t investigated the towing capacity of the Lightning pickup for example, but I have the sense it can tow a moving Pod or a UHaul container just fine for its entire range. I view the EV stuff as range bound, not capacity bound (except at the extremes).

That is, for most people and uses they are a practical solution that face political and preferential opposition only. And of course preferences change with better options. Politics not so much.

maw
 
I happened to use a public DC charger yesterday.

The wife's car was down to about 30%, and I had to run a few running errands in town. Two of which are within walking distance of the EA charger.

It sucked, per usual. Due to several factors. Partially my fault for not programming the charger destination into the nav as soon as I left the house. This informs the car that a "fast" charging event is coming up and allows it to execute whatever conditioning routines are necessary in advance. I think this was only partially complete upon arrival.

BUT, at the Electrify America station, two of the four pumps were broken. And there were 2 VWs hooked up when I arrived, but one left immediately.

And then I tried to connect, but the Audi/EA phone app told me that it was down and I should try again later. I know that this is an app bug, so I logged in and out a couple times and then it connected to the network.

Finally, despite this being a 150kw location, and my vehicle having 270kw onboard equipment, I was only getting ~57kw for the first half of the session. At no point did the rate ever go above ~105kw.

All in, my car was at that pump for about an hour. With me sitting there, wasting time for about half that.

If someone with a Ford Lightning needed a charge, under the same conditions I experienced, they would have been at the pump for something like and hour and a half. If they were towing, it'd be more like two hours including unhooking/hooking the trailer away from the pumps. Assuming there was space for it.

Earlier in the week, I took my Discovery to Sams Club for a fill up. Even with waiting in line, I was in and out in well under 15 minutes. Twenty something gallons. I did notice that one of the twelve pumps was out of service.


Someone in the UK on the Audi board was complaining about having issues with the Ionity network. The kw service tier to which they were subscribed wasn't being delivered. It was something like one third, so it was taking them a very long time to fill up. At the bargain price of £0.75/kwh.
 
I think urban uses anywhere by anyone, actually is where they make sense (except for heavy industrial).

I haven’t investigated the towing capacity of the Lightning pickup for example, but I have the sense it can tow a moving Pod or a UHaul container just fine for its entire range. I view the EV stuff as range bound, not capacity bound (except at the extremes).

That is, for most people and uses they are a practical solution that face political and preferential opposition only. And of course preferences change with better options. Politics not so much.

maw
F-150 electric is better than ICE version in all measures except for range and price. The standard battery is rated for 230 miles but most people are reporting less than 200 in colder temps. When towing a trailer, the range gets cut in half.

If @gerryvz had an electric f-150 towing a trailer, he would ran out of charge before reaching home.
 
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