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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

I wonder why plug-in hybrids have not been more popular? The best ones I think are the Toyota RAV4 Prime and the Ford Escape Plug in Hybrid. Both have 40 - 45 mile electric range and can refuel nearly instantly for long road trips via gasoline.

If they are able to get this to 100 mile electric range with at the USD 30-35K price point, I would buy one.

Certainly these plug in hybrids are not nearly as “cool” as a Tesla or Taycan or whatever. Increasingly as I get older, I don’t care about “cool” for my transportation needs.
The wife's PHEV when new, had a 13-14 mile e-range. Six years later, it had dwindled down to 8-9 and the car went inop. Basically bricked itself.

They put a remanufactured battery in this Spring and now the range is 29-32 miles. Nobody can explain why.

At that new/improved range, I can make a pretty good use case for a PHEV for our circumstances. On the day or two she drives to the office, this is what she's getting.... 80-85 combined mpg one way. Charging at the office, and the afternoon commute is around 70-75mpg.

The financials of the whole thing are still completely nuts. But 80 mpg for 100 daily commute is pretty compelling from an efficiency standpoint.

And let me be clear, she has no idea how to hypermile a PHEV. That's relatively "normal" driving.

I doubt there are existing platforms which could be adapted to carry 100 emile range batteries. I think one of the most versatile platforms out there is the Volvo CMA. Which with the XC40, can be built as ICE, PHEV or BEV. But in PHEV form it's only offering high 20s e-range.
 

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Just to add clarity to my take on EV's. I do not think they are the solution to everyone's woes but i do believe for daily use, they easily outperform ICE cars and are much more convenient and easier to maintain. As an automotive enthusiast, I welcome them and will own one in the future. But, I will also continue to own ICE cars as well.

re: EV's and California. It's true, we probably have more EV's here than anywhere else. This should not come as a surprise to anyone as car culture is strong here and has been for many decades.
 
re: hybrids. For me, they don't make any sense because you have all the maintenance of an ICE car plus the complexity of the hybrid drive system. And until recently, hybrids were generally slow and boring to drive.
 
re: hybrids. For me, they don't make any sense because you have all the maintenance of an ICE car plus the complexity of the hybrid drive system. And until recently, hybrids were generally slow and boring to drive.
What if the Plug in Hybrid is a Toyota? Still boring to drive, but nearly ZERO maintenance...... ?

The maintenance thing is something that I've found my Tesla-driving friends like to tout, but that position ignores the fact that lots of people with Toyotas perform next to no maintenance anyways......

BTW I disagree with the thought that EV = car culture. Perhaps the linkage can be made in Southern California. I don't know. However, here in Northern California, lots of anti-car-culture people have EVs. Lots of "tech forward" people here have Teslas because "tech".
 
@Jlaa, You still have oil and filter (air, fuel, oil) changes, belts to inspect/change and more frequent brake pad changes. As someone who DIY's those things, I want a car that is more rewarding to drive.
 
@Jlaa, You still have oil and filter (air, fuel, oil) changes,
I would venture that most Toyota owners just go to Jiffy Lube or whatever for this. Oil changes take 15 minutes and is cheap. Air Filter can be DIY in 5 minutes.

belts to inspect/change and more frequent brake pad changes.
For Toyota Hybrids, not really. The ICE engine doesn't run nearly as often as an ICE car, and the brake pads last seemingly forever because of regenerative braking. I did replace the brake pads and rotors on my 2nd Prius at around 150K miles. I DIYed it and the parts for pads and rotors, all in, from Rock Auto, was like $200. All four wheels.

I have a buddy who has had a Model S for about 7 years. The time his car spends in the shop for various ailments far exceeds the amount of time my 2010 Prius spends getting oil changes.
 
What if the Plug in Hybrid is a Toyota? Still boring to drive, but nearly ZERO maintenance...... ?

The maintenance thing is something that I've found my Tesla-driving friends like to tout, but that position ignores the fact that lots of people with Toyotas perform next to no maintenance anyways......

BTW I disagree with the thought that EV = car culture. Perhaps the linkage can be made in Southern California. I don't know. However, here in Northern California, lots of anti-car-culture people have EVs. Lots of "tech forward" people here have Teslas because "tech".
You and Glen are both correct.

I believe that for California in particular, there are multiple factors at work.

1) California is usually a few years ahead of the rest of the country in terms of new trends, adopting new things, etc. California is very forward looking. The whole early adopter thing comes int play here.

2) I first saw Teslas (and Priii before them) on my frequent travels to Silicon Valley when they first came out. Then slowly they started being adopted after that in other places, mostly larger cities. I see a fair number of Teslas here in the DC/NoVa area these days. 4 years ago, not so much. The whole tech thing comes into play here. Teslas and EVs are still to a degree considered playthings of the Silicon Valley geeks.

3) SoCal and all of Coastal California to a somewhat lesser extent has a broad, ingrained car culture. But I agree that EV does not equal car culture. Have to agree with the @Jlaa on that.
 
I would venture that most Toyota owners just go to Jiffy Lube or whatever for this. Oil changes take 15 minutes and is cheap. Air Filter can be DIY in 5 minutes.


For Toyota Hybrids, not really. The ICE engine doesn't run nearly as often as an ICE car, and the brake pads last seemingly forever because of regenerative braking. I did replace the brake pads and rotors on my 2nd Prius at around 150K miles. I DIYed it and the parts for pads and rotors, all in, from Rock Auto, was like $200. All four wheels.

I have a buddy who has had a Model S for about 7 years. The time his car spends in the shop for various ailments far exceeds the amount of time my 2010 Prius spends getting oil changes.
What most people do may not be what the manufacturer recommends:

Per Toyota:

Per Tesla:

You asked why hybrids aren't as popular,..it's because you have similar maintenance as a regular ICE car plus hybrid complexity, Plus, regular ICE cars get acceptable fuel mileage and are more engaging to drive.
 
My high miler w211 returns 44+ MPG on long runs:

20210818_101447.jpg

Paid it off years ago. Costs me nothing but Diesel, my own oil changes and Tyres on it. Freezing cold AC, heated seats, DVD Player / command system and no rattles goes down road quiet, smooth and with good power. Would happily take it across Europe at a moments notice as I know it would never let me down.

Does it make sense to take on a new EV car payment and scrap a perfectly serviceable comfortable car? No thanks I'll stick to what makes sense for me. Environmentally and economically it makes no sense to change in the pretence EVs offer an improvement in both regards IMO this is all marketing bollocks and people know it too.

And you can bet that EV will cripple you on your electricity bill in future, taxes will be added to account for what was lost in fossil fuel revenues and the EV car maintenance will be unpredictable and pricey.
 
Hmm, I didn't mean that EV = car culture, I meant as Gerry pointed out, that California is usually ahead of the curve for car trends.
 
Does it make sense to take on a new EV car payment and scrap a perfectly serviceable comfortable car?
This is true for ANY new car purchase, not specifically for EV's. That has been my point in this discussion. People complaining about the cost of a new EV compared to their existing car. Of course, it's more expensive to buy a new car, any new car. It's almost always more economical to fix an old car than buy a new one.
 
This is true for ANY new car purchase, not specifically for EV's. That has been my point in this discussion. People complaining about the cost of a new EV compared to their existing car. Of course, it's more expensive to buy a new car, any new car. It's almost always more economical to fix an old car than buy a new one.
All fair points- I guess to augment my thoughts:

I am familiar with what MPG will cost me regarding fossil fuels. When they start trying to state comparable MPG figures on an EV it is hard to understand.

I know the fossil fuel car will suit my needs not having to plan charging stations and trips ahead of time. Eg I could go to work and be sent to a site some 4 hour return trip any given day. If I had an EV that would not be possible.

I know that the internal combustion car, if maintained should not present any huge unknown maintenance bills. I also know I could maintain it myself at little cost. With an EV I could not be sure of what maintenence costs lie several years down the line outside of warranty. Eg if it needs a new battery pack. And it would most certainly require specialists to work at it.

I know with a fossil fuel car I do not have to add a charging point to my home.

I think the whole EV thing tends to "shame" drivers of older cars that the EV is the more environmental friendly choice. Indeed some fossil fuel cars are subject to hefty daily charges when used in certain cities. That is why I see the comparison of new EV purchase VS an old serviceable car. And the fact automotive manufacturers are beginning to phase out production of fossil fuel engines there is no new ICE choice soon, only EV.

Depreciation also needs factored in on a new purchase.
 
Basically I intend to get another years worth of cheap motoring then upgrade my daily driver. It will be a 4 or 5 year old MB saloon with a diesel engine and that will do me for many years thereafter all being well. Modern MB Diesels can return 50+ MPG easily. That is good enough for me, I don't mind the running costs fuel wise for a decent car.
 
I had to wait 12-15 years before I could afford an 036... might be able to shop for a used Taycan or Lucid in the early 2030's.

:oldster: :wheelchair:
A few months ago I read an article, when Musk stated that the planned life cycle of Tesla cars is 10 years. Taycan or Lucid are not Tesla's, but the general tendency is that car's life cycle gets shorter. So something produced today may turn out to be a scrap in 2030. Oh, it's 2021 now, so if the 10-year life cycle applies to those cars too, you might have one year left of use ;)
 
As with any technology, at first it seems complicated and hard to understand. When I bought my E500 in 2001, I thought I wouldn't be able to service it due to it's "advanced" electronic systems. Thanks to time, the internet and GSXR, working on these cars isn't really a problem. When OBD2 came out, I was "oh great, the manufacturers are making it harder for us to fix our cars", but this is just the opposite of what happened. Diagnosing modern cars is easier than ever with a simple hand held scanner available from a variety of sources.

So it will be with EV's, individuals will start small companies that specialize in specific brands. We'll see aftermarket batteries, more powerful motors, etc, etc.

Personally, I can't wait.
 
A few months ago I read an article, when Musk stated that the planned life cycle of Tesla cars is 10 years. Taycan or Lucid are not Tesla's, but the general tendency is that car's life cycle gets shorter. So something produced today may turn out to be a scrap in 2030. Oh, it's 2021 now, so if the 10-year life cycle applies to those cars too, you might have one year left of use ;)
That is a very valid point and the huge unknown factor.

Eg your 10 year old ICE car needs a transmission. You can get a used one for $2k fitted and that will let you away for several years.

Your 10 year old EV needs a battery pack replacement by Specialist at $5k and 1 year warranty. If it craps out after that your back to that stage again. (White goods generally considered disposable, feels like an EV?)

So would the EV be totaled?

Where to draw the line 🤔 Too many unknowns with EVs until poor sods find out the hard way and we learn from it!
 
I think it's funny that we have two clear-cut groups of people here on the forum, with a very very large group in between. .......
The vast middle group is quiet. Because they see both/all sides of the equation. ......
The strongest EV proponents by far are pretty much ALL living in California -- SoCal and Silicon Valley.

It is interesting see how the culture that one lives in -- and what they see on the roads every day -- colors one's viewpoint.

I have often wondered, from a political standpoint, if many of the "blue coastal metropolis liberal" people would turn into "red flyover country conservative" people if they were to move to flyover country and be exposed to flyover country values and culture.......
I think the whole EV thing tends to "shame" drivers of older cars that the EV is the more environmental friendly choice.... I
A lot of proponents of 100% Battery Electric Vehicles tout their various perceived advantages - maintenance, lesser-on-road-emissions, performance, and speak less of (or at least point to future tech maturation) when it comes to the perceived disadvantages (charging time, cost, toxicity of used battery packs, etc.)

Personally I feel like the way this is received is that more conservative folks in society feel like that they are being lectured to by the more tech-forward people in society. In other (oversimplistic) words, "blue state folks are moralizing and shaming red state folks again." @JC220, your characterization "shamed" rang a bell for me.

They say you can catch more bees with honey than with vinegar....
 
As with any technology, at first it seems complicated and hard to understand. When I bought my E500 in 2001, I thought I wouldn't be able to service it due to it's "advanced" electronic systems. Thanks to time, the internet and GSXR, working on these cars isn't really a problem. When OBD2 came out, I was "oh great, the manufacturers are making it harder for us to fix our cars", but this is just the opposite of what happened. Diagnosing modern cars is easier than ever with a simple hand held scanner available from a variety of sources.

So it will be with EV's, individuals will start small companies that specialize in specific brands. We'll see aftermarket batteries, more powerful motors, etc, etc.
Something inside me whispers that this won't happen. Or won't happen on a large scale. Motor parts (or complete motors) are still relatively simple mechanical parts. Batteries might be considered as a replaceable component as long as interface and electrical specifications match. However, there are more parts in today's modern car, which - if break - might be hard or impossible to replace: the whole electronic stuff. And that electronic stuff is not only a hardware, but also software, which no car manufacturer will make available. And with software we're stepping into IT world which means $$$.

Looking at all those modern cars - how many displays and touch screen are there? No traditional push buttons - the one big single touch screen being the interface to 90% of functionality. If that touch screen stops working, you loose all the functionality. It might be even possible, that the car won't drive at all with such broken panel (my friend's case). Would it be possible to find a new replacement after 10 years? Last month touch screen in my 10 years old GPS navigation (Modecom MX2) started to have problems and did not accept inputs in a few places. I disassembled it, found part numbers and specification of that touch screen and thought I would buy one. Two hours of googleing shown me that it is not available anywhere. Even in the deepest Chinese webpages. Sure, it was available for 12 $ sometime in the past as some shops indicated, but I could not order it anywhere.
If a heated seats button fails in my W124, I still have 99% of all the other functionality available, and my continue the drive. And then replace (or repair) just this single button. Same with a blinker relay failure. But now we have no simple blinker relay in the modern car, but a specialized computer which controls all the fancy-clancy-o-la-la features of blinkers.
 
Something inside me whispers that this won't happen. Or won't happen on a large scale. Motor parts (or complete motors) are still relatively simple mechanical parts. Batteries might be considered as a replaceable component as long as interface and electrical specifications match. However, there are more parts in today's modern car, which - if break - might be hard or impossible to replace: the whole electronic stuff. And that electronic stuff is not only a hardware, but also software, which no car manufacturer will make available. And with software we're stepping into IT world which means $$$.

Looking at all those modern cars - how many displays and touch screen are there? No traditional push buttons - the one big single touch screen being the interface to 90% of functionality. If that touch screen stops working, you loose all the functionality. It might be even possible, that the car won't drive at all with such broken panel (my friend's case). Would it be possible to find a new replacement after 10 years? Last month touch screen in my 10 years old GPS navigation (Modecom MX2) started to have problems and did not accept inputs in a few places. I disassembled it, found part numbers and specification of that touch screen and thought I would buy one. Two hours of googleing shown me that it is not available anywhere. Even in the deepest Chinese webpages. Sure, it was available for 12 $ sometime in the past as some shops indicated, but I could not order it anywhere.
If a heated seats button fails in my W124, I still have 99% of all the other functionality available, and my continue the drive. And then replace (or repair) just this single button. Same with a blinker relay failure. But now we have no simple blinker relay in the modern car, but a specialized computer which controls all the fancy-clancy-o-la-la features of blinkers.
Is there any manufacturer who endeavors to make a Battery Electric Vehicle that is not an ipad-on-wheels?
 
Let me be clear as a card carrying left coaster Silicon Valley elite tech person (as if my 39 years growing up in the flyover city of Chicago counts for nothing), that my advocacy for electric cars amongst my car enthusiast friends is due to several hours of butt time in a Tesla Model 3 in the Chicagoland area when I visit my Dad. It is simply a great driving experience. I have no clue what happens to the battery at end of life or the CO2 emitted to make that damn thing. It is fast, instant throttle response, instant torque, quiet, great handling, fantastic stereo and low maintenance. I loved every moment in that thing on highway and city traffic over a few hundred miles. I charged at night. I get that some people may not like the minimalistic interior. My 19 yr old son loved driving it as well but missed the exhaust noise. He is of the age where an M3 with a sport exhaust is perfect (He drives a Ford Focus RS now and is desperate for a louder exhaust). I experienced the future and want to live in it. It has nothing to do with politics or my values, except my value of having a great time in a car. I believe a well engineering electric car sells itself and all the tree hugging stuff just comes along for the ride.

At the same time I have my E500 and my 90s Porsche 911 to tinker around with and I am having a major "I want one" feeling for a Turbo V8 German Autobahn eating machine (Panamera, MB GT, BMW M8, MB E63 Wagon) for long distance leisure travel with the fantastic gasoline network in every corner of the USA. The EV network needs another 10 years or so.

We are at the peak ICE era right now and looking forward to what the next ten years brings and trying to figure out what ICE car will be remembered as the last hurrah of the ICE glory days. These twin turbo V8s might just be the ones.
 
A few months ago I read an article, when Musk stated that the planned life cycle of Tesla cars is 10 years. Taycan or Lucid are not Tesla's, but the general tendency is that car's life cycle gets shorter. So something produced today may turn out to be a scrap in 2030. Oh, it's 2021 now, so if the 10-year life cycle applies to those cars too, you might have one year left of use ;)
The Model S was introduced/released 9 years ago, I wonder how many of those early cars are still usable? Anyone have any numbers?
 

It is the battery pack replacement that will breathe new life into the car. Like my friend who changed the battery in his iPhone6 and extended its life ("feels like a new phone now" he says) The Tesla roadster is now 13 years old.
 
GM recalling every Chevy Bolt ever made.


Do not run the battery down.
Do not park the vehicle inside.
Do not charge the vehicle overnight.
 
On the one hand you have the minimalistic beauty of the Tesla Model 3, then then on the other you have wall to wall screen on the Mercedes EQS. There is an entire screen on the passenger side with some kind of artistic rendering of blobby car?

Screen Shot 2021-08-30 at 2.44.13 PM.png
 
On the one hand you have the minimalistic beauty of the Tesla Model 3, then then on the other you have wall to wall screen on the Mercedes EQS. There is an entire screen on the passenger side with some kind of artistic rendering of blobby car?

View attachment 137405
Blech. That entire video was an advertisement for the EQS with an older-millenial-VP-of-design guy endlessly blathering about "luxury experience" and whatever, while rocking his stupid red shoes.

Did you catch the point midway in the video when the VP guy was droning on about the interior screens and "you have your massage and Spotify account and your phone calls and blah blah blah information blah blah menus blah blah you don't need to search for it blah blah blah......" Jay Leno's eyes glaze over like he's been asleep for the past 5 minutes, and then Jay wakes up with a start and says, "uh, ok, let's look at the trunk now." 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Here -- at this point in time:

 
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Just drive your current fleet today, and when the battery costs come down (inevitable) and the charging infrastructure becomes ubiquitous (also inevitable), just retrofit the ICE with the battery pack. Sure, it costs tons now but it won't then. Or just buy an Audi e-tron!!! Those things have me thinking REALLY hard.

maw
 
Don't forget to kit your siphon cord...
The EV strategic push may be about "Feel Good" Marketing for suckers, and the essence of that Marketing is to separate as much of your money from you while leaving a smile on your face

The EV concept is fine, especially for congested population centers. But it's time is not here yet or for a while. EVs will be taken seriously only when EV ranges equal or surpass & EV price is competitive with combustion-engined vehicles.

I read a story a while ago about a bloke from Blighty who drove the highly touted Porsche Taycan 4S about 130 miles from his parents house to his home.

It took 9 hours.

Not much bang for the buck. (remember those spiral fluorescent light bulbs replacing the inefficient & technologically obsolete incandescents?)

I couldn't locate the story for a while & thought maybe the algorithm Marketers buried it because reality conflicted with their dream, but here it is now.
 
The EV concept is fine, especially for congested population centers. But it's time is not here yet or for a while. EVs will be taken seriously only when EV ranges equal or surpass & EV price is competitive with combustion-engined vehicles.

The electric car is fascinating and even when I get out of my bubble, and yet still within California, I am amazed at the differences in culture.

My home is in San Francisco. The national car of SF is basically a Tesla. Heck, the national car of the entire SF Bay Area is basically a Tesla.

Today, I am in Roseville, CA, which is a suburb of Sacramento CA. This is a metro area - the top employers here are Kaiser Permanente (health care) and HP Enterprise.

Even then, if the ratio of Teslas to ICE cars in SF is 1:n, here in Roseville it is more like 1:20n……. Just over 100 miles away in a different metro area.
 
Roseville / Sacto isn’t hugely different from the Bay Area. It’s a suburb of it, albeit 2-3 hours’ drive away. I worked for Intel and went to Folsom quite often. My ex-wife’s mother lived in Carmichael. It’s all a mini-extension of the Bay Area.

to get the ratios up to 1:100 or 1:1000n, you need to expand that bubble out to say, Stockton, Merced, Chico, Yreka. Weed or Redding or Yreka would really be outside of the typical NorCal “bubble”. I do not actually consider anything north of Redding on I-5 to be actual California. It’s more Southern Oregon than Cali.

I’ve spent A LOT of time in that area of California. Love it.
 
They currently represent 2% of the market. I'm still interested in seeing what happens when they hit 20-30% and whether they'll be considered 'the future'. What will happen to our electric bill after all that lost revenue is lost from gasoline taxes?
 
Interesting video comparing the impact of keeping an older car or buying new (gas or electric)
See post #235.
WSJ covered this in a lot of detail and had similar results.
We really are at tipping point… next 3-4 years are going to see a lot or change in EV tech and adoption.
Unfortunately if EQS is what MB is thinking of, they are already falling behind. Anyone saw the video of Rivian tank mode?
 
I think the EQS will do well. I'm looking forward to people doing tear downs of it, Munro style, but seems like it has great range, good charging, okay performance, and a modern interior. I'd be shocked if it doesn't end up outselling the S class, similar to how the Taycan has basically rendered the Panamera obsolete, although I think the pricing might be a bit ambitious (the top variant is like $180k which seems too high). The EQE looks quite ugly but also has good range/charging numbers and a competitive price. I'm excited to see/drive both the EQE/EQS IRL in the near future during a parts pickup at SF BENZ. MB seems much more well positioned than BMW and likely Audi.

I'd love to see a total lifecycle analysis that also updates the grid gCO2/kWh intensity throughout the life of the vehicle; the US grid keeps getting 'cleaner' and needs to continue to do so anyway for us to not be pwned by climate change. Using CA or NY state grids the break even point shifts forward a lot vs a used car, typically within a year. Also great to capture the air quality benefits available by switching. This is helpful both in cities and in towns near highways; a friend was at a hearing for Class 2+ Truck emissions standards (we're nerds, I know) out here in CA and some of the strongest advocates lived in small towns near the 5 that get destroyed by respiratory health issues.

As noted in the video, battery recycling is already underway which is great too, as the full life cycle is being captured. Still gonna be hard to beat that used 50+MPG Geo Metro/CRX HF tho ;) Or the idomitable used 1st gen Insight.
 
Still gonna be hard to beat that used 50+MPG Geo Metro/CRX HF tho ;) Or the idomitable used 1st gen Insight.
I've been saying this since the Prius first came out. The old school Honda Civic HF/VX (51 MPG) and Geo Metro (58 MPG) with no complex hybrid systems, from what, the early 1990s ICE technology, are still hard to beat. I bought in 1992 a brand-new Honda Civic DX (first year of that body style) with a 5-speed, 1.5L engine with 102 HP, and I got high 30s MPG all day at 80+ MPH, and could even get 40+ MPG if I kept my foot out of it.
 
If memory serves that Civic had the single side asymmetrical headrest, with an arm only on the outboard side. That drove me nuts.
Yep, correct. I never cared about the headrest. Was too busy cruising the highways and byways of California at 80+ MPH, completely incognito, listening to Metallica “Metallica” and such.
 
200.gif

Just kidding, those are stylish! The headrest shenanigans of the 80s/90s drove me nuts, especially the doughnut style units on Audis and then Pontiacs (because 80s/90s Pontiac just stole from Audi, like the stupid 2000/6000 nomenclature).

If you really want to be efficient, you'll have a hard time beating an eBike, which seem to get better by the year. These Tern units are $$$ but amazing to ride and experience, some really slick and well executed engineering. You can easily do a 10 mi round trip commute without breaking a sweat and will likely be as fast or faster than a car in any remotely urban environment.
 
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