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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

@gsxr,
Love the Polar Bears pic!:love: In SoCal the news is whining about the cold here. Today it’s L43 & H64.:jono:
Much like the weather in central Florida of late. One day it's lucky to make it into the 60s, the next it's in the high 70s. Can't make up it's mind.

As for Dave's situation, I can recall that all too well living in SE Wisconsin. Much of January and February are single-digit days, both above and below, and that's not considering the wind chill!

Dan
 
Interesting first hand information for those of us who care for such…


Meanwhile I feel like I’ve been teleported back to business school some 35 years ago when we were talking about “dumping” and “tariffs” on steel, but now it’s about EVs and related clean energy products. My guess is neither the economic arguments nor the political ones have changed very much.



maw
 
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From Saturday’s Wall Street Journal:


IMG_9538.png

Hertz announced to much fanfare on Oct. 25, 2021, that it planned to buy 100,000 Tesla s. “Electric vehicles are now mainstream, and we’ve only just begun to see rising global demand and interest,” then-CEO Mark Fields said. The share prices of both companies popped, and Tesla’s market capitalization surged past $1 trillion, exceeding the valuations of nearly all traditional automakers combined.

C-suite executives praised the announcement. “Kudos to Mark Fields and the Hertz team for steering a great American brand into the electric and connected future,” Ford CEO Jim Farley tweeted. Hertz had emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy only a few months earlier. It was betting on electric vehicles to power its revival.

Over the next year, Hertz announced plans to buy up to 65,000 Polestars and 175,000 electric vehicles from General Motors . Hertz featured Tom Brady in ads renting an EV. “Knowing Hertz is leading the way with their electric fleet speaks to how the world is changing and the way companies are approaching being environmentally and socially conscious,” the legendary quarterback proclaimed.

The market has changed. Electric-vehicle euphoria has crashed into reality, and Hertz’s bet has gone south. On Jan. 11 the rental-car giant announced it would sell roughly a third of its global EV fleet and use the proceeds to buy gasoline-powered cars. The cited reasons: weak demand for EVs and high repair costs.

Readers might have heard that lower maintenance costs are a major electric-vehicle advantage. As Hertz discovered, the opposite it true. Even minor accidents can require batteries to be replaced, which can cost $20,000. Many EV parts aren’t readily available, so cars have to sit in the shop for weeks.

The bigger problem is that Americans don’t want to plan trips around the locations of electric-vehicle charging stations—often to discover later that the chargers are broken. Nor do they want to download multiple apps to charge at different stations, or worry about their battery range degrading in cold temperatures.

These are the same reasons most Americans haven’t warmed up to electric cars. A Deloitte Global Automotive Consumer Survey last week found that 67% of U.S. consumers said they would prefer an internal-combustion engine for their next vehicle purchase. Only 6% said they favored a battery-powered EV—down from 8% last year.

Electric vehicles simply aren’t practical for most Americans and won’t go mainstream until they are. This inconvenient truth has finally dawned on corporate execs and investors who were drinking the same punch as Hertz in 2021.

Traditional automakers had committed to spend tens of billions of dollars on EVs. Startups such as Lucid , Nikola , Lordstown and Rivian debuted on public stock exchanges with fantastic market valuations despite having produced few if any cars. Rivian in early November 2021 boasted a $153 billion market cap. It’s now worth $17.3 billion.

As demand for electric vehicles stalled, the buzz wore off. The auto industry and investors are now suffering from a horrible hangover.

In recent months, traditional automakers have rolled back electric-vehicle production plans as they beg the Biden administration to tap the brakes on its aggressive EV mandate. Ford reported a $7.4 billion write-down on its Rivian stake in 2022. General Motors’ planned investment in Nikola burst into flames, as the startup’s semi trucks have been prone to do.

“There’s a lot of excitement around the early adopters,” Mr. Fields told CNBC in October. “Now you’re getting to the tough part of mass adoption.” Never mind that only two years earlier, investors and automakers believed EVs were already “mainstream.”

The EV reversal illustrates the perils of groupthink, which has infected the C-suite and Wall Street just as it has college campuses. Ideological conformity has fueled the ESG (environmental, social and governance) and DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) movements in corporate America, which have proved costly and distracting.

It prompted CEOs of companies such as Coca-Cola and Delta to denounce Georgia’s 2021 voting-integrity law even though many didn’t know what was in it. It contributed to financial turmoil last spring because banks had piled into long-dated securities, assuming low interest rates would last forever. Then they had to record steep losses when rates rose.

The public’s dummy lights should flash when CEOs and Wall Street sing from the same hymnal. The same choir that proclaimed inflation would be “transitory” is now predicting a “soft landing.” Perhaps. But planes often smoothly descend from 35,000 to 5,000 feet, only for things to turn bumpy as they approach the runway.


Source URL:

GSXR edit: Paywall bypass here.
 
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Hertz’s reversal has been interesting. I traveled over thanksgiving holiday and hertz offered us an EV. I said “No Thanks” so fast my wife thought she heard an echo. The reason was simple — far from home on holiday the last thing I need is someone’s science project. I’m guessing the person who thought that was a good business decision has long been fired.

Of course I don’t need anyone’s opinion piece to highlight the perils of groupthink. Politics illustrates that point abundantly and always has.

My reading tells me no “reversal” on EVs has happened, notwithstanding American resistance. America is being dragged along this curve, not leading it, and as such, American resistance won’t stop it. China and Europe are leading the way on this. US states are last.

BMW CFO: sales growth is mostly electric as combustion engine 'tipping point' passes
https://www.reuters.com/business/au...stion-engine-tipping-point-passes-2024-01-15/

maw

EDIT… the fact that I’m driving 20 and 30 year old vehicles and still wearing natural fiber clothing demonstrates that a first adopter I most certainly am not.
 
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I get 95% of my information in general through alternative media. It's interesting to note that for some time when I would mention some of the problems arising with the EV solution that the vast majority of folks would reply with something like "really? I heard so and so can't keep up with demand" or "this or that is about to happen, and we are all going to be driving one". Groupthink has completely taken over and the mainstream media is wallowing in it.
One can spend hours wondering what the motivation is that lies behind corporate Americas' actions, but I'll stop before I prompt anyone to discuss conspiracy theories and politics.

maw1124 "science project", that made me laugh out loud.
 
I get 95% of my information in general through alternative media. One can spend hours wondering what the motivation is that lies behind corporate Americas' actions, but I'll stop before I prompt anyone to discuss conspiracy theories and politics.
@sheward I attribute any overreaction on EVs (“groupthink“) to desperation around climate change, and not totally lacking in foundation.

Humans are imperfect and prone to panic. And watching the world get hotter, water levels rising, storms becoming larger, more deadly and less predictable, volcanoes erupting more often, earthquakes increasing and pythons taking over damned near all of FL, might reasonably cause some to panic and over index on EVs as a possible solution.

Again, not perfect but perhaps reasonable. Certainly understandable. My baseline view is everyone doesn’t see the same ghost if it’s not there (despite the collective delusion of flat earthers).

maw
 
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… Groupthink has completely taken over and the mainstream media is wallowing in it….

@sheward I attribute any overreaction on EVs (“groupthink“) to desperation around climate change, and not totally lacking in foundation.
We all know that Silicon Valley Venture Capitalists are all lemmings. Groupthink to the extreme. VCs all chase after the same next shiny hot object. There’s no better way to raise money for an ultra-risky-moonshot-cray-cray idea from VC1 than to wave a term sheet or interest from VC2, VC3, and VC4 in VC1’s face. You gotta do it or max FOMO!

Why are VCs such group think lemmings? Some posit because VCs are charged with risking a shit ton of cash on some cray cray idea …. They want to know that they are not the only ones thinking this cray cray idea is gold. Hence VCs are group think lemmings.

With a transition in the auto industry from gasoline to EV, suddenly, automakers are charged with investing a shit ton of cash on some cray cray ideas. They are charged with investing a METRIC shit 💩 ton more cash in EVs than they would normally invest in a new model cycle or 4! Hence…. Automakers wanna know that they are not delerious. They want to know the other automakers are equally cray cray. Hence…. groupthink lemmings.
 
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The question is who or what is driving them to allocate capital to EVs. And I’m not sure the answer is as simple as “government”.

They might all simply agree.

maw
 
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Companies are motivated by both where they think they can make the most money (hence the EV or current AI gold rushes), as well as being “guided” or “herded” (or in the case of EVs, pushed pretty majorly) by government rules and regulations.
 
Perhaps it is the imputed shareholder dismay that Tesla OM is almost 17% whereas everyone else (full range manufacturer - not Ferrari) is enjoying a substantially lesser return on capital?
View attachment 182164
Yes, competition.

Companies are motivated by both where they think they can make the most money (hence the EV or current AI gold rushes), as well as being “guided” or “herded” (or in the case of EVs, pushed pretty majorly) by government rules and regulations.
Yes, mandate.

Yes, sustainability, innovation, building a better mouse trap.

Let‘s be complete in our analysis, shall we?

maw
 
Unfortunately, though, at this point in time, EVs are far from being a “better mouse trap”

Ask the Tesla owners who have had to abandon their cars all over Chicagoland surrounding Tesla superchargers, because their cars won’t accept a charge in sub-freezing temperatures.

At lease one can pump gasoline at -10F…….

BTW, how’s the conference going over there in Davos, @Jlaa? Making any good friends with your fellow tech moguls?
 
Was waiting on the Kyle Conner "Out of Spec Reviews" YouTuber to explain what actually happened in Chicago. In Kyle's words:

To summarize for folks who don’t want to watch the 30 minute video - the problems are compounding:
1- Colder temperatures elongate EV charging time when they are not preconditioned to pre-warm the battery
2- There’s a huge amount of rideshare drivers that don’t understand the operation of EVs and likely didn’t plan for higher consumption and slower charging
3- Chargers were (and are!) still broken. Tesla had technicians at one of the sites I visited checking stalls, and superchargers are pretty much back running smoothly, but the other public chargers still are majorly lacking working units
4- Chicago already has a strained EV charging network. Add in longer charging durations with less working chargers and cars using more energy due to the cold and, well, shit hits the fan
Kyle runs an EV enthusiast channel and helped me understand the total shit show around public non-Tesla fast charging in the USA (hot or cold).

And my favorite comment on this video...
ICE drivers do not have to precondition their cars before filling up with dead dinos.
 
Mercedes EQS popped up in this recent Jalopnik piece:

"Neil Semel, the owner of a Mercedes EQS, told The Herald that if he had known how often he would be buying tires, he would’ve never bought the car. “If somebody looked at me and said, Mr. Semel, you are going to love this car but in about 7,000 miles you will have to pay 1,400 or 1,500 dollars to replace the tires, I wouldn’t have bought the car,” he said.
... Even with the fast wear that EVs have, owners love them. Semel says he and his wife love their EQS, even though it's eating tires. He just wishes tire companies would come up with something that wears less fast. “It honestly is a great car. It gets a lot of miles. And honestly, my wife pulls up she plugs it in and we’re done."


Florida Drivers Discover Hard Truth About EVs: They Eat Tires​

Some EV owners in the Sunshine State are reporting having to buy tires after just 5,000 to 7,000 miles of driving

 
This is an interesting tidbit I didn't know...


maw
 
This is an interesting tidbit I didn't know...


maw

Here's the thing... the real thing... "range" as guesstimated by a given vehicle, means virtually nothing. I mean it's something we can point to. But the reality is that the only thing... the ONLY thing... that matters is the actual consumption rates. But the typical EV driver doesn't understand it. And manufacturers don't always present it with the same numerator and denominator. So it gets kinda overlooked.

A battery has X capacity, assuming it's healthy and functioning properly. Driving habits and environmental factors will determine the consumption. The range is just the product of the two.


BTW, our etron GT was hauled off to the salvage auction yesterday. Worst single financial loss I've ever experienced. The vertical EV depreciation curve is real.
We often got 3.0 to 3.2 miles per kwh over the short life of the car. While others reported never seeing better than 2.5. It's all about how, when and where you drive. There's no magic to it.
 
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Ace, why wouldn't insurance make you whole on the e-tron® loss...?

😟
The short-ish story is that they wanted to repair the car and I didn't. The first appraiser did a shit job and missed a ton of BIG stuff. So I was fighting a battle from low ground, so to speak. I went 2 levels up the food chain (with a big helping hand from my indy agent) and got the result I wanted.
It woulda been 6-8 months at least and in the end, it never would have been right. And I simply could not have the stress of an ongoing repair and rentals hanging over me for that period. (Went through that in 2021 with the plug-in Panamera battery for 9 months).
The shop that was going to do the work couldn't look at it for an estimate until late April/early May. And then it would go on the schedule later after that. Pending parts availability for a rare car.
So I pushed HARD for a total loss, and accepted "market value." Call it $125K new, $70K payout after 18 months and 17K miles. The number they gave me was probably better than market by a hair. Round numbers, but close enough.
 
How does one rationally think about a used EV? That seems like a used cell phone to me, on a several times multiple scale. You recycle used cell phones not buy them for use.

maw

I can't speak to TSLA on the used market, but it's very common to hear TSLA original owners complaining loudly about their equity vanishing each time the MSRP is lowered on new cars. AND, probably even worse, is the horrific experience when it comes to getting body repairs done. I have a friend who waited nearly a full year to get their car back after an accident. See Hertz' recent announcement for proof on that front.

Regarding my situation and the new/used EV market.... my wife is considering replacing the GT with a CPO GT. Obviously, they're few and far between, but there's one in SoFLA.

So that unit is one year newer and has about -10K miles. (7K vs 17K) Virtually the same options, same original MSRP. It's gone through the CPO process and there's gotta be some dealer profit in there too... It's listed at $78K. Mind you that one year ago, it sold for something near $125K.

I'm thinking it can be bought for $75K, and they'd be happy to move it off their lot.

IMO, the sweet spot for EV ownership will be the 2nd person who comes along. Avoid the vertical depreciation curve. Get an extra year or two of factory warranty coverage from the CPO program. And then can simply ride the vehicle right up to the 8year/100K mile mark when the drive battery warranty goes poof. Rinse and repeat.

OR, run away from EVs and go back to ICE. Which we're also considering. But damn, the choices just aren't what they were five or ten years ago. I've got a couple weeks to sort this out. Big fun. :blink:
 
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Since I'm running through car listings... here's a truly extreme example:

2022 etron RS GT Year One. This was the big kahuna introductory model. Ceramic brakes, leather everything, big wheels, etc. $163 MSRP. Might have sold with ADM if it came from NYC or Florida markets. When I was shopping in the summer of 2022, NYC dealers wanted +$5K and Florida was in the +$10K for mid trim level cars. And they weren't budging. I bought my car from a tiny dealer in central VA for sticker.

It's been driven 750 miles since new.

Put through the CPO process and again figure there's some dealer profit rolled in.

Asking $90K. Probably get it for $85K easy.

I was at the P-car store yesterday. Had a great conversation with a sales guy. The Taycan is suffering the same fate. Owners are totally pissed off. They can't move units without tens of 000's of price reductions.

Virtually guarantee it's the same situation at Mercedes. And BMW. And whoever else is out there.
 
2022 etron RS GT Year One. This was the big kahuna introductory model. Ceramic brakes, leather everything, big wheels, etc. $163 MSRP. (snip)

Asking $90K. Probably get it for $85K easy.
Seems tempting. You gonna kick the tires?



I was at the P-car store yesterday. Had a great conversation with a sales guy. The Taycan is suffering the same fate. Owners are totally pissed off. They can't move units without tens of 000's of price reductions.
Wait, what? Taycan owners are pissed off about what? The vertical depreciation "curve"?

:wormhole:
 
I can't speak to TSLA on the used market, but it's very common to hear TSLA original owners complaining loudly about their equity vanishing each time the MSRP is lowered on new cars.
I am looking at this from the Used car buyer perspective where yes, new owners are pissed, but used car buyers are getting great deals, looks like you are running into same thing in the Porsche & Audi EV world.
 
I am looking at this from the Used car buyer perspective where yes, new owners are pissed, but used car buyers are getting great deals, looks like you are running into same thing in the Porsche & Audi EV world.
IDK Folks... used ICE cars make sense to me because the motive engineering doesn't degrade as fast as the car price depreciates... this very basic value proposition doesn't seem to hold with EVs... or maybe I'm missing it... maybe for the appliance / beater EV's this works.

maw
 
Seems tempting. You gonna kick the tires?

Wait, what? Taycan owners are pissed off about what? The vertical depreciation "curve"?
Two problems with that car... the color doesn't pass muster with the boss... It's a cross between white and gray. Similar to the Porsche "Chalk" color that is so popular today. There are 8 standard colors, and the blue is basically the only one that is green lighted. lol
Second is the CCBs. I live on a gravel road, and an unfortunate rock bounce *could* damage a rotor. Possibly necessitating a replacement at $7000 for just one ring. Pass, even with the slight risk.

Porsche people, at least 911 owners, are accustomed to minimal depreciation. The Taycan and Panamera don't follow that rule.
 
I am looking at this from the Used car buyer perspective where yes, new owners are pissed, but used car buyers are getting great deals, looks like you are running into same thing in the Porsche & Audi EV world.

Last month, for example, leftover RS etron GTs, had $30K factory trunk money. Plus $7500 lease subsidy. Plus whatever you could get from the dealer.

The market is falling so fast that waiting is always the right answer.
 
Sweet. When a nice low-mile Taycan Turbo S or Panamera Turbo S hits 90% depreciation, I'll go shopping!
And that's why you own multiple Mercedes. Their buyer base isn't as rabidly excited about the cars as BMW or Porsche, so the market price has fallen through the floor before the car is broken in at 100k miles. Or at least that WAS the case. So for under $10k, almost nothing beats the 15yo Benz that grandma has driven back and forth, safely and carefully I might add, to church and the grocery store (and the stealership of course). Buying a 15yo BMW or Porshe is a different prospect altogether.

maw
 
I think a Hybrid car (not a straight EV) - with both internal combustion engine and battery pack - makes sense for most people. It is the most convenient option with no need to be tethered to any charging facility at home or on the road, and it has serious efficiency gains... I just drove our Toyota hybrid CUV on a 1200-mile roundtrip down to Thermal, CA (from Northern California) and it got 42 mpg.... meanwhile I still use it every day for around-town driving and get mid-30s (lots of climbing hills). This from a car that cost me $29K new in 2021 and has AWD. It was a great value and is much more economical than any new EV, esp as one takes purchase price into account... As well, the Toyota hybrid CUV effectively gets 2x the mileage my our 2002 MB E320 around town as well..... the hybrid is a superstar in efficiency (but not nearly as satisfying to drive).

Looks like they heard you @Jlaa.

maw
 
My wife has a Toyota Rav4 Hybrid, not the plugin because the price difference between plug in and no plug in is way larger than what the cost for petrol is will over our three year lease. And she does not have to deal with cables or hunting for chargers.

I have zero interest in EV's until they are as rapidly filled up as an ICE vehicle. Progress in my book means that things get better and more convenient not the other way around, and I can't see anything that's better for me as a consumer with EV's, and I've driven quite a few of them before the Tesla people parachute in to cut me off at the pass. :)
 
Shell pulls the plug on its hydrogen stations in CA.

My wife has a Toyota Rav4 Hybrid, not the plugin because the price difference between plug in and no plug in is way larger than what the cost for petrol is will over our three year lease. And she does not have to deal with cables or hunting for chargers.

I have zero interest in EV's until they are as rapidly filled up as an ICE vehicle. Progress in my book means that things get better and more convenient not the other way around, and I can't see anything that's better for me as a consumer with EV's, and I've driven quite a few of them before the Tesla people parachute in to cut me off at the pass. :)
Seems like hydrogen and a passenger car fuel mechanism (as opposed to, say, heavy trucks) is probably dead, along with the Toyota Mirai (which had nice proportions as it was based off the Lexus LS platform I think).


Anyways, a year ago the industry was widely criticizing Toyota for missing the boat on EVs. One year later, we get this news:

1707750182531.png


https://archive.ph/p0NmS <--- non-paywalled link
 
Money quote:

"Hybrid sales grew last year at a faster clip than sales for pure electric vehicles in the U.S. and some other markets. Signs have emerged that the EV push might have gotten ahead of U.S. consumers who are worried about charging problems and higher prices. That has steered them toward less expensive hybrids, which can be filled up with gasoline. "

MIGHT have gotten ahead. Gee. Ya think?

:facepalm: :whistling2:
 
EV growth is fueled by "shiny new thing" and "keeping up with the Jones'" syndrome. Just like folks "have" to buy a new car or IPhone each year. Nothing new, just consumerism slowly devouring humanity.
Re: consumerism ..... A new billboard went up near me (next to Costco) recently. Costco here is located in a very marginal part of town (ostensibly for cheap rents). I find the juxtaposition of this billboard in this area to be a bit absurd.

IMG_2664.jpeg
 
In a location where the brutally-hot/wickedly-cold/snow&ice doesn't really happen:

But it's EA (Audi USA), so this sort of decision makes perfect sense.

How long before this facility gets taken over by folks who aren't looking to charge their EVs?



This EV Charging Hub Is The First Of Its Kind

Electrify America builds a station we should have seen a decade ago, but will these make economic sense for station owners?

  • Electrify America opens flagship indoor charging station in San Francisco at 928 Harrison Street, near the Bay Bridge, offering 20 spots with 350-kW chargers.
  • The station is the first of its kind for EA, and it features a lounge for drivers, vending machines, and an attendant.
  • Large charging hubs with their own staff, snacks, and restrooms are still exceedingly rare in the US, but have begun to appear on a small scale only in the last few years.
 
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Re: consumerism ..... A new billboard went up near me (next to Costco) recently. Costco here is located in a very marginal part of town (ostensibly for cheap rents). I find the juxtaposition of this billboard in this area to be a bit absurd.

View attachment 184024
Unless the marginal part of town is gentrifying, it's completely absurd. And in that case it might be especially absurd.

maw
 
  • The station is the first of its kind for EA, and it features a lounge for drivers, vending machines, and an attendant.
  • Large charging hubs with their own staff, snacks, and restrooms are still exceedingly rare in the US, but have begun to appear on a small scale only in the last few years.
Compare and contrast that with my experience in North Providence last summer... sweltering heat, desperately needing a charge, but forced to "work with" some Dominican gentlemen who were providing protection to the EA chargers at the lovely Walmart.

When they put chargers in bad neighborhoods, bad things will happen.
 
Compare and contrast that with my experience in North Providence last summer... sweltering heat, desperately needing a charge, but forced to "work with" some Dominican gentlemen who were providing protection to the EA chargers at the lovely Walmart.
Dang... pay for charger protection? I assume, "or else". Yikes.

:duck:
 
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