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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

Jaguar is going with a fully electric lineup next year.
They're also fully committed to killing a century old car brand.

Here's the new marketing roll out on Twitter. (with a subtle troll from E Musk)
20241120_223332.jpg


One guy's take. (Don't watch if you're easily triggered.)

 
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I realize this is a hot topic and not everyone loves EVs, but they are producing results (WSJ piece casts some doubt on that).
  • The Bay Area has a very high concentration of EVs and has seen local air quality improvements and reductions in CO2 directly attributable to EV (and hybrid adoption) as a result of the area having numerous Air Quality sensors located throughout. Article here.
  • Note that this is with a high proportion of Bay Area new car sales being EVs (~40%) but much of the on-road fleet still being ICE vehicles.
  • We should 100% change the incentive structure on EVs to prioritize efficiency and thus smaller batteries than a blanket $7500 handout. Biden admin did some good stuff on price/income caps, US mfg and supply chain, more work needed.
  • The problem of cheap green energy leading to induced demand and requiring increased power sector growth is a big one, but I doubt the result will be new fossil fuel generation construction.
 
There's definitely potential for progress in improving air quality in big cities. However, unless the power source is "green", the air pollution problem is simply relocating elsewhere - to where the power is generated. If the air pollutants at generation are less than what the tailpipes would have spewed, there's still a potential for a net improvement. That's gotta be difficult to quantify though.

Increasing power sector growth, and distribution infrastructure, is the next big hurdle. And it will take years - more likely decades - to implement, unless a ton of funding makes it happen rapidly. Possible, but unlikely. SMR's (or, full-size) make the most sense, but it's difficult to erase the stigma from 50 years ago when combined with a healthy NIMBY attitude.

:seesaw:
 
Even on dirty grids, EVs usually 'win' for all net pollutants - you shift from having to control millions of small sources to tens/hundreds of them that can be catalyzed/treated much more effectively. Fossil fuel powerplants also get to operate at or near their peak efficiency at all times (unlike ICE engines which are all over the place). It also decouples these problems - a good EV should last as long as a gas car if not longer (ie 15-25 years), and while an ICE's cars emissions will only really get worse over that time, an EV on the grid should improve as the grid CO2/kWh keeps improving (as the US and Canadian grids have). In Canada it went from 220 gCo2/kWh in 2005 to 100 today.

I love me a good engineering optimization problem, but man, the grid is insane, especially with all the economics and game theory involved. Hopefully they can sort that out somehow - to your point, permitting reform is the next big hurdle.
 
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My wife's Audi EV is at the dealer. Again.
The onboard AC charger failed. Unable to charge anywhere except DC fast chargers.
Also due for new front brake lines as part of a recall.
Also due for a battery cell check as part of a recall. Potential for fires is totally amazing feature, really.

BEVs are the worst. Simply awful mechanisms for personal transport.
Here in my corner of VA, we're also staring down the barrel of 200% residential electricity price increases in the near future due to a combination of runaway consumption by datacenters and Virginia's "green" legislation which has basically destroyed our ability to generate electricity in any real quantity, in state.

------------------------------

Costco has reversed its previous decision to stay out of the EV charging business, and will now partner with Electrify America (arguably the worst charging company in the US) on a limited rollout of service.


It's interesting that they're doing 350kWh pumps. Personally, I don't think they're needed in a shopping center-type environment due to being too fast. Resulting in unattended vehicles which have completed the charging process.
 
Cybertruck explosion... link credit to @jftu105 (originally posted here).

EDIT: This was intentional, not an accident:

"Within 15-20 seconds of pulling up to the hotel the vehicle exploded. During the press conference, the sheriff showed a video of the truck bed, which showed it was filled with gasoline canisters, camp fuel canisters and large firework mortars."


:duck:

 
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Advance Auto is in the process of closing all operations in CA, OR, WA, AZ and NV.
While it's likely there are a multitude of factors, it's interesting that CA, OR & WA lead the country in EV adoption.
Also, Washington is #1 in retail crime. NV 3rd. OR 4th. CA 13th.
 
A bit off topic however I would like to chime in on Advance Auto. I just last week went back to Advance Auto to get a new alternator to replace the one they sold me in September that failed. There were broken promises on the first go around.

I was told by the girl that sold me the first one (as she was trying to keep her child from getting into trouble behind the counter) that it was the wrong one and that's why it failed. She then sold me the "right" one would cost me an extra $40.00. She ordered it and promised to call when it arrived. No call.

I took the new alternator home and learned the electrical plug was incorrect. Back to a different branch and received the correct alternator. No apologies from anyone.

I'll never use them again.
 
@sheward -- the McFLAPS stores honestly are really only good for buying oil, fluids and the occasional fuse or car care stuff. I would never buy anything more than an AGM battery from a McFLAPS.

Even then I don't really go there. I have better luck at NAPA stores - for example I just recently bought the Pentosin synthetic power steering fluid (which McFLAPS doesn't carry anyway) from our local NAPA store, who has it in stock. MB re-packages the Pentosin as its factory PS fluid, for the newer cars (this was for my E63).
 
Advance Auto is in the process of closing all operations in CA, OR, WA, AZ and NV.
While it's likely there are a multitude of factors, it's interesting that CA, OR & WA lead the country in EV adoption.
Also, Washington is #1 in retail crime. NV 3rd. OR 4th. CA 13th.
Sounds like "shrinkage" is the issue here.
 
True. I think I was impatient, and Advance said they had it, which they did not. I just picked up a quart of Pentosin two days ago from NAPA myself.
 
True. I think I was impatient, and Advance said they had it, which they did not. I just picked up a quart of Pentosin two days ago from NAPA myself.
I have found that NAPA and O'Reilly Auto Parts (a card-carrying member of the McFLAPS brigade) are the best auto parts stores. Both seem to be a bit more oriented toward "gear-heads" and are a bit more technical and greasy than the sterile Advance Auto and AutoZone, who tend to specialize in selling floor mats, chrome tailpipe ends and mud flaps for your Chebby pickup truck.

Sadly O'Reilly isn't to be found in my part of Maryland. They have been slowly expanding northward from North Carolina and Virginia into southern Maryland (which is basically the equivalent of non-NoVA Virginia or North Carolina), but the nearest store is about an hour or so away from me.

:runexe:
 
Practically free
I didn't realize it cost so much to fill with H1! ~25kmi of free fuel helps, but still, ouch.

"Mirai's are fun and have a quiet , luxurious driving experience, but hydrogen fuel is about 3 to 4 times more expensive than the equivalent amount of gasoline. After the hydrogen fuel credit runs out expect to pay about $200 every time you fill up your Mirai hydrogen tank to go 350 miles of range."
"Doing some quick math with your number there, Toyota is offering around 75 free fill-ups. 26,250 miles worth of fuel."

:spend:
 
I'm aware California is "special" compared to other US states (in terms of vehicle emissions etc.) but why are all but 1 Hydrogen filling stations there compared to the rest of the country?

Is there zero demand elsewhere except a tiny bit in Hawaii?

🤷‍♂️
 
I'm aware California is "special" compared to other US states (in terms of vehicle emissions etc.) but why are all but 1 Hydrogen filling stations there compared to the rest of the country?

Is there zero demand elsewhere except a tiny bit in Hawaii?

🤷‍♂️
Because California's legislature is nuts. Hydrogen is a stupid fuel to power cars. It's hard to store, prone to leaks and highly combustible. IMO, the only way it would ever catch on is if they figure out how to create H2 on the fly from water to fuel an ICE. 25 gallons of water would net about 300 miles or so. Never gonna be net energy positive.

Some info from Google on California's H2 stations.

As of November 20, 2024, there were 44 open hydrogen stations in California. There were also 18 stations that were unavailable, and two stations under construction.

Challenges

  • Hydrogen supply disruptions: Hydrogen supply disruptions have been a challenge for the hydrogen refueling network in California.
  • Station reliability: Station reliability has been a challenge for the hydrogen refueling network in California.
  • Spiking hydrogen prices: Spiking hydrogen prices have been a challenge for the hydrogen refueling network in California.
  • Global inflation: Global inflation has affected station development.
  • Labor and material shortages: Labor and material shortages have affected station development.
  • Supply chain interruptions: Supply chain interruptions have affected station development.
Future plans
  • The California Air Resources Board projects that the network will reach 129 stations by 2030.

  • The CEC and CARB staffs continue to evaluate the FCEV market as it evolves.
 
They're from the (unelected) government, and they're here to help (send your classic car to the recycler)

 
They're from the (unelected) government, and they're here to help (send your classic car to the recycler)

This is enormously contested in for instance Sweden, we have very large car and motorcycle culture. I’m a member of the largest Swedish motorcycle association, SMC, and we have 80.000 members in Sweden, we have lobbyists working to influence the politicians. Many of our politicians are petrol heads too. All organisations invested in the motor hobby are actively working to prevent some of the suggestions in the bill.

The very first problem for them to solve is right of ownership, which is in our constitution. Forcing owners to scrap or give up their possessions is almost impossible.

I’m actually not too worried regarding entusiast vehicles, and they are not what the bill is supposed to affect. And if we can put an end to all illegal export of junk to Africa for dismantling in a field, with no care for either human safety nor the environment, it would be a good thing.
 
This is enormously contested in for instance Sweden, we have very large car and motorcycle culture. I’m a member of the largest Swedish motorcycle association, SMC, and we have 80.000 members in Sweden, we have lobbyists working to influence the politicians. Many of our politicians are petrol heads too. All organisations invested in the motor hobby are actively working to prevent some of the suggestions in the bill.

The very first problem for them to solve is right of ownership, which is in our constitution. Forcing owners to scrap or give up their possessions is almost impossible.

I’m actually not too worried regarding entusiast vehicles, and they are not what the bill is supposed to affect. And if we can put an end to all illegal export of junk to Africa for dismantling in a field, with no care for either human safety nor the environment, it would be a good thing.

I first learned about this via a SAAB email list.
 
"Anti-Nazi Group Vows To ‘Inflict Physical Damage’ On Teslas Starting Today"
It's interesting how certain constituencies who (not that long ago) LOVED and BOUGHT Tesla vehicles like crazy, now want to damage them simply because they no longer like the company founder's political affiliation.

Somehow I don't think they'll get away with much of this "inflict physical damage on Teslas" thing in states where people are able to carry guns. I'd bet it will be more of a "blue state" phenomenon.
 
This "victim's" virtue signaling bumper sticker didn't pass the political purity test.


Stockholm Syndrome is real.
The Tesla owner is a PERFECT example of a typical Portland resident. He'd rather go out and have a beer with the antifa vandalizer who damaged his property, or go downtown and protest / siege the Federal Courthouse, than actually procesecute the dude or learn him a lesson.

This is all part of the reason why I got the hell out of Portland back in 2008, and moved to Houston. It was clearly apparent -- even back then -- that the city was starting to go off the rails. The show "Portlandia" was the icing on the cake.

The last time I visited was in 2014. No intention of ever going back.
 
You might remember the Double Nickel... but I had never heard of Dirty Nickel. There's a text article at the link below with a general summary of the 45-minute video:



The unknown is how much "dirty nickel" might be in the batteries of your typical EV marques sold in USA. This counterpoint article (link below) argues that very little of "dirty nickel" production ends up in EV/automotive batteries, and instead it's used in other industries, apparently more than half ends up in stainless steel production. And, some EV batteries use little if any nickel. However - if automotive manufacturers really don't use dirty nickel, you'd think they would be quick to provide proof - right? Or at least make statements clearly articulating this?



Comments below the video shred the presenters for bias against EV's, which might be justified, but as noted above I'd expect the EV makers to clear the air about what goes into their vehicles.

:watchdrama:

 
Here in the US and other western countries we have safeguards to protect the environment and its workers. We would like to believe this to be true and that in our society we strive to improve safety everyday. I’ve witnessed these improvements in the construction industry over the last 50 years. Believe me when I say we’ve come a long way.

On the other hand, China and other Asian countries have no regard for the environment or human life. It’s up to western nations to stop the use of resources mined under these conditions. If we look the other way then we become part of the problem.

We here in the US and western countries play by the rules on pollution and the value of human life and pay a huge price for the opportunity while China and others could care less about any of it.

Enough Said
 
:pc1:


Americans Are Growing Less Interested in Buying Electric Vehicles, Study Says​

Just 16% of Americans would be "likely" or "very likely" to buy an EV for their next car, according to AAA.

There has never been a better selection of electric vehicles on dealer lots than there is today. In the last four years alone, some 75 new all-electric models have arrived in the United States across the many automotive brands on the market. Yet while that might seem like a positive sign for the emerging segment, a recent study by AAA suggests American interest in EVs is at its lowest rate since 2019.

The study, which looked into the likelihood of purchasing an EV and the factors behind that decision, was completed in March of this year and spanned 1128 interviews. AAA found that only 16% of U.S. adults reported being “very likely” or “likely” to purchase an EV as their next car — the lowest that figure has been since before the COVID-19 pandemic. Conversely, the percentage of adults who stated they are “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to purchase an EV as their next vehicle has grown from 51% to 63% in the last four years.

The survey suggests there is still quite a bit of hesitation surrounding EVs when it comes to the buying public, with a few specific areas of concern. AAA says that high battery repair costs (62%) and a higher purchase price (59%) were the two most-cited reasons for not considering an EV purchase. Other respondents noted a perceived inability for EVs to handle long travel (57%), which seemingly relates to general charging fears. Respondents also pointed to a lack of convenient public charging (56%) and a fear of being left with a flat battery on the roadside (55%). Additionally, 27% of respondents claimed to have issues installing charging at their own residence.

“Since we began tracking interest in fully electric vehicles, we’ve seen some variability,” said Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering for AAA. “While the automotive industry is committed to long-term electrification and providing a diverse range of models, underlying consumer hesitation remains.”

The public’s confidence in the growth of the EV segment seems to be slowing, as well. The study suggests that the number of people who believe that EVs will overtake gasoline vehicles in the next decade has dropped from 40% in 2022 to just 23% today.

The recent J.D. Power 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Consideration Study — which covers people who intend to buy or lease a new vehicle in the next year, versus the AAA's study that is meant to be representative of the U.S. population overall — paints a bit of a different picture, however. The analytics firm says 24% of vehicle shoppers in the States are “very likely” to consider purchasing an EV; an additional 35% said they are “somewhat likely” to do so, which J.D Power says is unchanged from last year.

That said, the firm did note that charging infrastructure remains a pain point with the majority of respondents (52%). J.D. Power’s results do contrast the purchase price claims made by the AAA study to a certain degree, stating only 43% are staying away from EVs due to the high purchase prices.

Considered together, the two studies suggest the American public as a whole isn’t as jazzed about EVs as they might have once been. The market always speaks its mind, but such a rejection could have lasting impacts on the automotive industry and its key players. Where do you stand on the issue? What is the main thing pushing you towards or away from EV ownership? Let us know in the comments down below.
 
Toyoda Math 101.


Toyota Math: 9 Million EVs Are Just as Polluting as 27 Million Hybrids

The company's chairman insists that going all-in on electric cars is wrong.


By: Adrian Padeanu
Jun 9, at 3:33am ET

Akio Toyoda is a man who speaks his mind. He’s been saying for years that forcing everyone to buy EVs isn’t the way forward. Toyota’s chairman is adamant that the transition can’t be rushed and that going all-in on electric vehicles would have massive repercussions across the automotive industry. He believes millions of jobs throughout the supply chain could be at risk if the combustion engine is phased out too quickly. On the environmental front, Toyoda maintains that EVs are still much dirtier than hybrids.

The grandson of Toyota founder Kiichiro Toyoda claims the company has sold around 27 million hybrids since launching the first-generation Prius in 1997. According to him, those hybrids have had the same carbon footprint as nine million fully electric vehicles when adding battery and vehicle production into the equation.

Toyoda argues that a single EV is as dirty as three hybrids. However, while it's true that producing EVs and their batteries creates more carbon emissions than building gas cars, over their life cycles, EVs are responsible for far fewer overall emissions.

'But if we were to have made nine million BEVs in Japan, it would have actually increased the carbon emissions, not reduced them. That is because Japan relies on thermal power plants for electricity.'

Proving Naysayers Wrong

Toyota’s reluctance to fully embrace EVs has sparked criticism, with some even questioning the company’s future. You’ve probably seen comments predicting Toyota’s downfall for lagging in the electric race, but that hasn’t happened. In fact, the opposite is true. In 2024, Toyota was the world’s largest automaker for the fifth year in a row.

Sure, its EVs may trail the competition, but Toyota more than makes up for it with its hybrids and the remaining ICE models it still sells. The latest gas-powered car to receive the hybrid treatment is the Aygo X, the firm’s smallest model outside of the kei cars, which are sold exclusively in Japan. Toyota claims the dinky hatchback has the lowest CO₂ footprint of any non-plug-in car on the market.

Akio Toyoda once said EVs would never exceed a 30 percent market share and argued that the industry should focus on hybrids and synthetic fuels. Although it has admitted that the Mirai has been a commercial failure, Toyota remains committed to hydrogen and sees potential in combining it with combustion engines. At the same time, it’s helping BMW launch its first series-production hydrogen vehicle in 2028.

Toyota Can Do It All

As the automotive powerhouse it is, Toyota has the financial and industrial muscle to improve its hybrids while also developing better EVs. It has made the bZ more appealing and added the bZ Woodland and C-HR to its growing electric lineup. Its luxury brand Lexus recently launched the ES electric sedan and upgraded the RZ. According to a new Bloomberg report, two more EVs are coming to the U.S. by 2027.

While the spotlight is on hybrids and EVs, Toyota hasn’t forgotten the joy of driving. The company’s CEO, Koji Sato, was recently quoted as saying, “A car is not a car if it’s not fun.” In the coming years, expect a new Supra, a revived Celica, and possibly a new MR2, judging by the mid-engine prototype shown earlier this year. Lexus, too, will launch a GT3-style road car, likely with a V-8. All told, Toyota appears to have just about every base covered.

The impending return of the FJ Cruiser would further cement Toyota’s reputation for offering one of the most comprehensive lineups in the automotive industry.
 
Jaguar is going with a fully electric lineup next year.
They're also fully committed to killing a century old car brand.
I know they have technically stopped selling cars before their rebrand takes effect but what are their sales staff doing at the moment?


Key Takeaways:​

  • Jaguar's April 2025 Europe sales plunged 97.5%, from 1,961 units to just 49 vehicles, marking a near-total collapse during its rebranding phase.
  • BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi each retained market stability, selling approximately 50,000 to 75,000 units in April 2025 across Europe.
  • Jaguar eliminated nearly its entire product lineup before replacements launched, leaving dealers with almost no inventory and alienating long-time customers.
 
Toyoda Math 101.


Toyota Math: 9 Million EVs Are Just as Polluting as 27 Million Hybrids

The company's chairman insists that going all-in on electric cars is wrong.


By: Adrian Padeanu
Jun 9, at 3:33am ET

Akio Toyoda is a man who speaks his mind. He’s been saying for years that forcing everyone to buy EVs isn’t the way forward. Toyota’s chairman is adamant that the transition can’t be rushed and that going all-in on electric vehicles would have massive repercussions across the automotive industry. He believes millions of jobs throughout the supply chain could be at risk if the combustion engine is phased out too quickly. On the environmental front, Toyoda maintains that EVs are still much dirtier than hybrids.

The grandson of Toyota founder Kiichiro Toyoda claims the company has sold around 27 million hybrids since launching the first-generation Prius in 1997. According to him, those hybrids have had the same carbon footprint as nine million fully electric vehicles when adding battery and vehicle production into the equation.

Toyoda argues that a single EV is as dirty as three hybrids. However, while it's true that producing EVs and their batteries creates more carbon emissions than building gas cars, over their life cycles, EVs are responsible for far fewer overall emissions.



Proving Naysayers Wrong

Toyota’s reluctance to fully embrace EVs has sparked criticism, with some even questioning the company’s future. You’ve probably seen comments predicting Toyota’s downfall for lagging in the electric race, but that hasn’t happened. In fact, the opposite is true. In 2024, Toyota was the world’s largest automaker for the fifth year in a row.

Sure, its EVs may trail the competition, but Toyota more than makes up for it with its hybrids and the remaining ICE models it still sells. The latest gas-powered car to receive the hybrid treatment is the Aygo X, the firm’s smallest model outside of the kei cars, which are sold exclusively in Japan. Toyota claims the dinky hatchback has the lowest CO₂ footprint of any non-plug-in car on the market.

Akio Toyoda once said EVs would never exceed a 30 percent market share and argued that the industry should focus on hybrids and synthetic fuels. Although it has admitted that the Mirai has been a commercial failure, Toyota remains committed to hydrogen and sees potential in combining it with combustion engines. At the same time, it’s helping BMW launch its first series-production hydrogen vehicle in 2028.

Toyota Can Do It All

As the automotive powerhouse it is, Toyota has the financial and industrial muscle to improve its hybrids while also developing better EVs. It has made the bZ more appealing and added the bZ Woodland and C-HR to its growing electric lineup. Its luxury brand Lexus recently launched the ES electric sedan and upgraded the RZ. According to a new Bloomberg report, two more EVs are coming to the U.S. by 2027.

While the spotlight is on hybrids and EVs, Toyota hasn’t forgotten the joy of driving. The company’s CEO, Koji Sato, was recently quoted as saying, “A car is not a car if it’s not fun.” In the coming years, expect a new Supra, a revived Celica, and possibly a new MR2, judging by the mid-engine prototype shown earlier this year. Lexus, too, will launch a GT3-style road car, likely with a V-8. All told, Toyota appears to have just about every base covered.

The impending return of the FJ Cruiser would further cement Toyota’s reputation for offering one of the most comprehensive lineups in the automotive industry.

I've had a Toyota for the last 15 years or so. In fact we're picking up a new Rav4 for my wife in August, the mild hybrid one. It's a perfectly serviceable car that gets the job done cheaply and without any issues. Since it is a mild hybrid, no charging necessary (remember, plugs are for butts :)). And while we lease over three years, I feel confident that our car will continue to work for decades ahead for the next custodians, on the contrary to the Chinese junk EV's that will be headed for the scrapyard in ten years.
 
A US manufacturer supposedly making a vehicle which is low cost initially and will be maintainable and ownable for many years in terms of part availability etc.


Jeff Bezos is behind it so maybe you can get it delivered by Prime :)

This would be a real utility vehicle if they just used a 4cyl hybrid engine in it! It'll take zero space, serviceable, and you'll really be able to do trips in it vs just staying local
 
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