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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

We still "win" here in Vancouver area of Canuckistan. Premium well over $2/litre so that is pushing $8/gallon:doh::doh:
Nope, we win overhere (in the Netherlands):36:...... > 2.20 €/liter translates into >9 US$/gallon.......and that's not even the "rally 102" octane gasoline. Still, no way on earth will I be considering owning & driving an EV any time soon, no matter what tax incentives are on offer, and no matter how easy E-filling on the road will be. And if so, in a zillion years when forced to by the government, no way on earth will that be a Chinese make, not in my life time (sorry, no offense meant)
winning GIF
 
The consequential costs of damaging 140 other vehicles plus the building and possible (probable) personal injury claims of residents is going to be an eye-watering amount of money in total.
 
I'm sure many of you are aware of The Wizard, quite an interesting overview of the internals of a tiny Fiat 500 EV's battery etc. and how there is only 1 repairer of EV battery control ECUs in the world - should we all be buying shares in this company now? :)

 
Some good analysis from Harry Metcalf here, the beginning is UK focussed due to our government not having a clue but there is some really interesting stuff on what the fuel companies and forward thinking manufacturers are doing.

 
with the new hybrid Lambo coming out, tesla fans are saying you can save on this and that but i have never heard or seen anyone saying, 'omg... is that a tesla plaid??'
 
I’d never thought I’d be able to say this, but Sweden’s petrol price is comparatively low in Europe these days, 98 premium (up to 5% ethanol) is $1.90 for a litre. This is solely due to that our current government consists of parties that promised a stop to the forced introduction of increasing mixing of renewable fuel (i.e. ethanol) year over year.

They were still in trouble because up until now, the mix still was under 10% ethanol. Starting this year we would have had more ethanol mixed in the petrol than most manufacturers approve. A truly staggering proposition, rendering a lot of vehicles stranded.

This is now not the case (for now) and thus we keep 95 octane with up to 10% ethanol and 98 octane with up to 5%, while also getting lower fuel prices. A litre of petrol is cheaper in Sweden than in Greece for instance, while the median income is double that of Greece than Sweden.

The prices we had a couple of years ago, I was not far off from buying alkylite petrol from Aspen. It contains no ethanol at all and is a really good fuel, but the price has historically been prohibitive, and it is only available from pump on a few places in the entire country. You have to order it by the barrel if you need to fill up a car. It’s widely available in 5 litre containers at the petrol station though.
 
with the new hybrid Lambo coming out, tesla fans are saying you can save on this and that but i have never heard or seen anyone saying, 'omg... is that a tesla plaid??'
BEV’s are soulless that’s why.

I’ve started taking Polestars and other Volvo battery rentals because they’re so good as a rental. Volvo On Demand is a great service. And I don’t have to fill it up, just return it on the charger. They have a “station” in my garage at home, so I can just grab one for work.

I’ve rented quite a few cars in my career, but nothing is as boring as a BEV. Gone are the days when I came home and raved about a car to my wife. They are basically all the same.

Once you’re past the surging fast forward fun (and it is fun, for awhile), it’s just a heavy, uninspiring appliance on wheels, that constantly beeps and bongs. A true Alpha Whiskey.

But they make great rentals for sure.
 
The tesla cult mind isn't at a level to understand an exotic and the ones that have had a dial motor plaid/X, move on to other cars that are better built.

Everyone that I've taken in my Black Series (very, very few people) completely get it and understand why I have it
 
I spent some time over the weekend traveling through the Midwest in search of famous golf courses to play, much of it in my buddy’s new Tesla, which I jokingly call “a rolling TV set.” Most of what it does is to connect him to the world of Starbucks, charging stations and navigation destinations via his voice, and entertain him with netflix and you tube when he’s at such charging stations. He's in his mid-50s. While driving, the stereo system was also remarkable. It works for him -- especially with Apple Music and connected to my Spotify account. Though we spent more time at charging stations than I cared to, the overall experience was predictable and reliable — most any Target, Meijer or high end golf course had charging stations, and average charging times were "long enough to go in the store and get whatever you need while you're there" which I don't consider a coincidence but it works. I generally found a reason to go in to some store... "we need tequila for the hotel, let's go see what this store has", or water, or whatever. It was fine, though that probably had more to do with the ease of navigation and the presence of good tequila where we stopped.

The car was comfortable enough, handled well enough and accelerated and braked well enough, though it didn't strike me as particularly well built. My S55 on the 4 hour ride home with zero stops to charge or otherwise is much more suited to my tastes and needs. MUCH less interaction with the general public in Target or Meijer, which works better for my personality TBH (I can't think of the last time I've been in either of those stores).

And to be fair, he's also looking at a new CLE 53 (Mercedes-AMG CLE Coupé) which will probably do distance duties going forward anyway, not an upgraded "run around entertainment shop mobile."

maw
 
Yup unfortunately I think we are slowly seeing the death rattle of ICE's folks...Most folks have "shiny new thing" syndrome, and that is why companies like Apple and Samsung bring out new phones seems like every few months. Simply put it's consumerism that will drive ICE's off the road and no amount of "hipster" - like love affair will save them down the line. Look for example how there was a "revival" of W123 Diesels for a while, and the whole biodiesel/WVO thing. Was cool for hipster - types for a while, but really it was pretty stupid to be honest and very niche. We will always have ICE vehicles, and the death rattle will be much longer, but I simply do not see how the "I must have a new big screen TV to watch the Superbowl" mentality will not lead to the proliferation of EV's in the next 5 - 10 years. Never mind that we are digging crap out of the ground to burn to power them:doh:
 
Never mind that we are digging crap out of the ground to burn to power them:doh:
^^^THAT part. I still think hybrid is the only path that makes sense.

Just because Elon needed a BHAG (big hairy audacious goal) to drum up investor interest and a sky high stock price to launch his project doesn't mean the rest of us need to go along with inferior technology on the one planet we have.

maw
 
Yup unfortunately I think we are slowly seeing the death rattle of ICE's folks...Most folks have "shiny new thing" syndrome, and that is why companies like Apple and Samsung bring out new phones seems like every few months.
I disagree (for the moment). There was a sharp ramp-up in EV adoption over the past 10 years or so, and everyone (ok, mostly the MSM, governments that would benefit from the agenda, and EV companies) expected this adoption rate to continue at a steep incline. Except it hasn't. The early adopters have already adopted, everyone else is sitting back watching the train wreck.

EV drawbacks are becoming more obvious and the benefits are more difficult to discern. Now safety concerns are becoming a bigger issue too. Eventually this will be reflected in EV insurance premiums and then home insurance premiums as well, if the residence has an attached garage. Let's not even get into the infrastructure issue and lack of power generation for the projected needs of a >50% EV fleet in USA (dunno about the rest of the world).



Simply put it's consumerism that will drive ICE's off the road and no amount of "hipster" - like love affair will save them down the line. Look for example how there was a "revival" of W123 Diesels for a while, and the whole biodiesel/WVO thing. Was cool for hipster - types for a while, but really it was pretty stupid to be honest and very niche.
Hey, you're right... I haven't seen as much of the hipster fad lately. Hmmm. :scratchchin: I'd go along with the idea that the EV love affair is very niche and will remain so for quite a few years (maybe decades, barring technology/power breakthroughs of an order of magnitude or greater).



We will always have ICE vehicles, and the death rattle will be much longer, but I simply do not see how the "I must have a new big screen TV to watch the Superbowl" mentality will not lead to the proliferation of EV's in the next 5 - 10 years. Never mind that we are digging crap out of the ground to burn to power them:doh:
Smart car companies will resurrect their ICE lines and might enjoy substantial sales & profits, if the governments don't smother them with a pillow.


ned flanders pillow GIF
 
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The Wall Street Journal is reporting as of 30 minutes ago that "Ford Shrinks Its EV Rollout Plans as Demand Lags."

They're taking a ~$2 billion writedown on the aborted effort.

Screenshot 2024-08-21 at 11.47.58 AM.jpg



The bad news, writedowns, failures and delays just keep piling up. I figure it's going to take a couple more years and more billion$ in automakers' losses for them to figure out that their EV offerings will only [ever] be a sideshow, and to begin re-igniting their ICE production so they can actually make more profits.
 
They're taking a ~$2 billion writedown on the aborted effort.

View attachment 197915
Understanding that news should be in air quotes these days ("news")... but "That plan alone will cost the company at least $400 million because it needs to write down the manufacturing equipment it had put in place to build the EV SUVs it no longer plans to build. Ford said the change in plans could ultimately cost it upwards of $1.5 billion. But the company also said it would improve its battery sourcing and increase manufacturing efficiency to save on costs. And just 30% of the company’s annual capital expenditures will be dedicated to pure electric vehicles in the future — down from 40%."

SOURCE:

$1.5B is still a big number but it's 25% less than $2B. @Jlaa and I were talking about how much of that BS train station rehab costs ($900M) was ultimately a noncore waste of shareholder capital. I'm thinking most of it, as most of that building has been thought of as an EV tech center. My bet is that is blowing up this number a lot.

It certainly would be if I was the CFO. Sweep it in with the other bad news and blame it on the EV market. Nothing increases a write down faster than market cover (otherwise known as "a good excuse").

maw
 
Well, consider the news sources -- CNN vs. the WSJ. I'm sure both are probably correct, given whatever they are counting to add up to those numbers. The $1.9B number comes from the $400MM write-down + $1.5B in additional expenses as reported. That equals $1.9B to me (rounding up to $2B).

I doubt the WSJ's news operation is going to embellish or falsify the number.

I will say that CNN is a far more partisan operation than the WSJ's NEWS operation (not talking about their opinion page, which is decidedly right-leaning). CNN is a left-leaning news organization, through and through, and the slant of their coverage of any/every type (political, business, society, crime, and so forth) reflects that on both the online and broadcast side.

WSJ's news reporting operation is pretty much right up the middle. As said, WSJ opinion page is right/conservative.

I trust the WSJ to report business news (and all news) fairly and evenly, in all situations.

That said, here is the entire WSJ article.

Ford Shrinks Its EV Rollout Plans as Demand Lags​

Automaker cancels large electric SUV and expects to take $1.9 billion in related special charges and write-down


Updated Aug. 21, 2024 11:14 am ET

im-994018.jpeg
Ford CEO Jim Farley during a 2021 presentation on the Tennessee factory to build electric trucks and batteries. Photo: Mark Humphrey/Associated Press


Ford Motor is canceling plans for a large electric sport-utility vehicle and expects to take $1.9 billion in related special charges and write-downs, as automakers continue adjusting their EV plans because of softer-than-expected demand.

The Dearborn, Mich., automaker said it is scrapping plans for an electric three-row SUV, citing tough pricing pressure as automakers resort to aggressive discounts to move their EVs. This spring, Ford had said it would delay the plans by two years to a 2027 release date.

Ford instead will offer a hybrid gas-electric version of a future large, three-row SUV, a popular vehicle category that includes the brand’s Explorer and Expedition nameplates.

The company also pushed back the launch of a new electric pickup truck by one year, until 2027. In addition, Ford said it would trim its capital spending on fully electric vehicles to about 30% of its budget, from 40%.

“Based on where the market is and where the customer is, we will pivot and adjust and make those tough decisions,” Ford Chief Financial Officer John Lawler said.

Ford shares rose 1.2% in morning trading Wednesday.

Ford has said its EV business is on pace to lose about $5 billion this year. Executives have said the company is trying to reduce those losses on its current EV lineup while making sure future offerings turn a profit.

Carmakers are trying to strike a tricky balance on electric vehicles. Tougher tailpipe-emissions rules, along with the rapid rise of Chinese EV makers, are pressuring them to invest in the technology. But consumer interest in EVs has waned after a burst of enthusiasm.

For example, while Ford is recalibrating its plans to include more hybrids, it also is moving ahead with the rollout of several full EVs. It will start making an electric commercial van in 2026 and two new pickup trucks a year later.

One of the trucks will be a midsize pickup, built using a new, lower-cost EV system that has been under development for nearly two years by a team of about 100 Ford engineers in Irvine, Calif. Led by former Tesla executive Alan Clarke, that project is designed to produce several electric models that Ford says will be profitable and allow the company to compete with Chinese EV makers.
Ford Chief Executive Jim Farley has said that China’s EV companies have the advantage of a lower-cost supply chain and that Ford needs to find ways to lower its own costs to compete.

“We believe that the fitness of the Chinese in EVs will eventually wash over our entire industry in all regions,” Farley told analysts last month.

Ford said it would take a special, noncash charge of $400 million to write down expenses related to the cancellation of the electric SUV. The move also may result in additional expenses of $1.5 billion, which would be reflected as special items in future quarters, the company said.

General Motors and other traditional automakers also have pulled back or delayed some EV investments, citing slower-than-expected demand for vehicles that run on batteries alone.

Meanwhile, sales of hybrid vehicles have risen sharply over the past year, and many automakers have said they plan to roll out more of them as an interim step for customers who aren’t ready to make the leap to a fully electric model.

Write to Mike Colias at mike.colias@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications
Ford said this spring that it would delay plans for an electric three-row SUV by two years to a 2027 release date. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said the company was General Motors. (Corrected on Aug. 21.)
 
Someone here who cares enough will actually pull and read the Ford earnings report, rather than relying on CNN v WSJ second hand reports. It won't be me though, because I don't have a dog in the hunt, other than keeping hyperbole to a minimum.

maw

EDIT... now I see where the $1.9B comes from ... $400M special charge
 
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Attached is an informative piece, if you're willing to believe this EV reversal isn't all customer demand driven.

I mean, they're actually not shit vehicles and chargers, and US automakers might lose money on them no matter how much consumers want them.

Cheers,

maw
 

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I’ve rented quite a few cars in my career, but nothing is as boring as a BEV. Gone are the days when I came home and raved about a car to my wife. They are basically all the same.
Thanks. That's a big shame. When I was employed by "the man", raving about my latest business rental car to the wife from weekly travel was one of the few perks that I enjoyed. :-(
 
Attached is an informative piece, if you're willing to believe this EV reversal isn't all customer demand driven.

I mean, they're actually not shit vehicles and chargers, and US automakers might lose money on them no matter how much consumers want them.

Cheers,

maw
Thanks for this @maw1124. I really enjoyed this piece. One big takeaway I got was this below. The article infers that this is a repeated issue - innovation happens in the US, but commercialization happens in Asia. We can think of the same thing in a previous generation - USA invented the television, but Japan Inc. perfected the TV Sony Trinitron. USA invested the transistor / transistor amplification, but Japan Inc. perfected home stereo transistor based amplifiers (Yamaha, Sony, Technics, Kenwood, JVC, Sansui, etc etc).


1724691941359.png

That said, in the case of Japan Inc's rise in the 70s/80s (and burst in the 90s), I am not wise enough to know if the Japan Inc. model used the top-down state-driven-strategery-model (thanks Prez Bush! 😅 ). Fascinating nonetheless.

1724692183767.png
 
Well EV is passing the trend now. I believe the hydrogen fuel is the real future and very environmental friendly while keeping the mechanical ICE.
I agree with you 100%, and have for years. Most people don't get hydrogen powerplants.

Bar none, the smartest major automotive company out there (in terms of non-gasoline vehicle R&D and strategy), is Toyota.
 
I agree with you 100%, and have for years. Most people don't get hydrogen powerplants.

Bar none, the smartest major automotive company out there (in terms of non-gasoline vehicle R&D and strategy), is Toyota.
Mainly because oil companies dislikes this hence not spreading awareness and information about the hydrogen powerplants. Big respect to Toyota for taking this step.
 
Screenshot_20240909-140551_Photos.jpgat a 171kmi +, my car is still pulling 400+ miles per fill under normal driving conditions with one bar of gas left on the gauge before the reserve light starts blinking then I have about 2 gallons in the reserve. Pretty neat for 2008 car made out of plastic

P.S. its still hot in Las Vegas
 
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View attachment 198510at a 171kmi +, my car is still pulling 400+ miles per fill under normal driving conditions with one bar of gas left on the gauge before the reserve light starts blinking then I have about 2 gallons in the reserve. Pretty neat for 2008 car made out of plastic

P.S. its still hot in Las Vegas
i know this is an E500E forum but i refuse to get on a prius forum b/c they're soft AF. i put 8.7 gallons after the gauge started blinking @ 356miles and it supposedly has a 11.9 capacity but its a bladder type so idk how much usability i would really get if anyone was interested in the stats
 
Watched the final Grand Tour episode last night. Jezzer had some input on EV's.


Meanwhile, Jeremy was particularly happy with his Lancia Montecarlo and is seen listening appreciatively to the engine at one point in the episode.
“Some popping and banging nicely from the back,” he says to the camera. “Love that sound.”
However, the notoriously opinionated presenter soon turned irate when his mind turned to modern cars.
“And all you lot growing up today with your electric cars, you’re never going to hear it,” he continued.
As more drivers may start opting for the supposedly more environmentally friendly electric models, Jeremy and the team might struggle to find an audience in Prime Video’s younger streamers.
“There are lots of reasons why we’re jacking this show in, but, for me, one of the main ones is I’m simply not interested in electric cars,” he continued.
“They are just white goods, they’re washing machines, they’re microwave ovens.
“You can’t review those, you can’t enjoy them. They are just s**t.”


More here:

 
EV's aren't flying off the lots in the EU. Link courtesy of @maw1124 :




EU car sales at 3-year low in August, EV sales down 43.9%, ACEA says

September 19, 2024 4:13 AM UTC
Sept 19 (Reuters) - New car sales in the European Union fell 18.3% in August to their lowest in three years, dragged by double-digit losses in major markets Germany, France and Italy, data from Europe's auto industry body showed on Thursday.

Sales of fully electric cars slumped 43.9% in August, falling for the fourth consecutive month, as the bloc's biggest EV markets Germany and France recorded drops of 68.8% and 33.1% respectively, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) said.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

Car sales in Europe have dropped well below pre-COVID-19 levels, with carmakers such as Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), opens new tab, warning that the trend might not change in the foreseeable future. EV sales growth has also slowed, in part due to diverging policies on green incentives, while regulators have imposed hefty tariffs to try to keep out cheap Chinese EVs.

BY THE NUMBERS

Sales of battery electric and plug-in cars fell by 43.9% and 22.3% respectively in August, while those of hybrid-electric cars rose 6.6% to a market share of 31.3%.
Registrations at Europe's three largest carmakers Volkswagen, Stellantis (STLAM.MI), opens new tab and Renault (RENA.PA), opens new tab all fell from a year earlier, by 14.8%, 29.5% and 13.9%, respectively. Sales at EV maker Tesla (TSLA.O), opens new tab dropped 43.2%, and those for China's SAIC Motor (600104.SS), opens new tab were down 27.5%.

CONTEXT

The market share of hybrid electric cars has increased in the EU in recent months, as buyers see them as an affordable compromise between all-combustion and all-electric.
To inject new stimulus into the EV market, Germany agreed in September on tax deductions of up to 40% for companies on their sales of electric cars, after last year ending a subsidy programme designed to help speed up the green transition.

Campaign group Transport & Environment said earlier this week however that battery-electric cars sold in the bloc are set to reach a total market share of between 20% and 24% by 2025, mostly because of lower selling prices.
 
I believe the novelty of electric cars is wearing off and it’s starting to show up in sales. They can go fast in a straight line but they have no soul.

To quote Jeremy Clarkson “I’m simply not interested in electric cars”.

I also agree with his statement “They are appliances.” Just like your dishwasher or your refrigerator.


:runexe:
 
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I believe the novelty of electric cars is wearing off and it’s starting to show up in sales. They can go fast in a straight line but they have no soul.

To quote Jeremy Clarkson “I’m simply not interested in electric cars”.

I also agree with his statement “They are appliances. Just like your dishwasher or your refrigerator.


:runexe:
I totally agree, I sincerely hope ICEs will still be running throughout my lifetime. I have no desire to drive a tablet on wheels.
 
Forget about the soul, people just want them to work after warranty and to be serviceable

I have a family member with a 2018 plug in hybrid with a battery that's almost dead. 12k to replace at the dealer and no aftermarket support thus far. And the battery pack is huge...
 
I've only seen one video where someone DIY the battery and it was not an easy task by any means.

A lot of people have these problems right when they get out of warranty and even towards the end of the warranty, the manufacturer says its fine
 
I mean, you can't drive the car 3 hours without needing a charge. So they're still pretty much runabout duty cars. Although a friend of mine has a Tesla and a Lucid, and he tells me the Lucid is WORLDS better. It also costs a lot more, so there's that.

maw
 
That was a car fire that happened to be an EV,
Fire began in the frunk near the windshield, which is where the 12V battery is.
Nothing to do with the traction battery.

Many people are guessing that the 12V battery was hooked up to a battery charger/maintainer but not set for AGM.
I find this very plausible.

I think that service centers are going to have to keep EVs on the ground when they're not being actively work on. The fire suppression blankets won't work when the car up on the lift. If that was an actual EV fire, the losses would have been massive.

1726846368931.png
 
A nail in the coffin of EVs?

DVLA has announced that EVs will no longer fall into the £0 tax bracket from 1st April 2025:



Vehicle tax for electric and low emission vehicles

How the Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) changes from 1 April 2025 will affect your vehicle.
Published9 April 2024
Last updated14 August 2024
From 1 April 2025, drivers of electric and low emission cars, vans and motorcycles will need to pay vehicle tax in the same way as drivers of petrol and diesel vehicles. This change will apply to both new and existing vehicles.
This new measure effectively removes band A under the existing VED system which is currently £0. Vehicles in this band will be required to move to the first band where a rate becomes payable.

How the changes will affect your vehicle

Electric and low emission cars registered on or after 1 April 2025

You will need to pay the lowest first year rate of vehicle tax (which applies to vehicles with CO2 emissions 1 to 50g/km). From the second tax payment onwards, these vehicles will pay the standard rate. This is £190 for 2024 but is subject to change for 2025.

Electric and low emission cars registered between 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2025

You will pay the standard rate. This is £190 for 2024 but is subject to change for 2025.

Electric and low emission cars registered between 1 March 2001 and 31 March 2017

These vehicles will move to the first band that has a VED value. This is £20 for 2024 but is subject to change for 2025.

Hybrid and alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs)

The £10 annual discount for hybrid and AFVs will be removed, and the rate you will pay will depend on when the vehicle was first registered. If the vehicle was:
  • registered before 1 April 2017 - this rate will depend on the vehicle’s CO2 emissions (check the current rates for this vehicle)
  • registered on or after 1 April 2017 - you will pay the standard rate (this is £190 for 2024 but is subject to change for 2025)

Electric vans

Most electric vans will move to the standard annual rate for light goods vehicles. Check the current rates for this vehicle.

Electric motorcycles

Electric motorcycles and tricycles will move to the annual rate for the smallest engine size. Check the current rates for this vehicle.

Additional rate (expensive car supplement)

For new electric vehicles with a list price exceeding £40,000, you will now need to pay the expensive car supplement from the second tax payment onwards. This applies to vehicles registered on or after 1 April 2025.
 
Just to show how stupid our rules are, this is the banding for my 2010 ML 350 which is in the highest category.

This effectively renders my car worthless as nobody will buy a vehicle in the narrow range of years where these rules apply:

IMG_3358.jpeg

It’s really complicated why my particular Merc is treated this way.

Anyway, rant over.
 
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