2022 Rising Energy Costs

[JC220]

All,

Sticking with forum policy NOT to be political I am raising the subject of Rising Energy Costs.

First and foremost thoughts are with the people caught up in the War. Terrible times, I can't stop thinking about them and wishing them well.

Alongside the main issue there are global Oil / Energy Prices hitting record levels.

Maybe we can share thoughts and tips here. On what you are finding locally cost wise and how you might save energy costs in these times. Perchance I have been busy making upgrades to my home the last few months.

 

[JC220]

In Ireland we heat 2/3rds of homes with Kerosene. A Boiler with radiators typically.

My 30 year old boiler was consuming around 1900L of Kerosene each winter season over the last 3 years.

Fortunately for me (didn't seem like it at the time!) The old boiler burst it's water jacket.

Therefore I had to change it. So I went for a Firebird Condensing Oil Boiler. Which is more efficient than older models but should also work a little harder to get the most out of it. I had previously already split my house into 2no heating zones and upgraded windows to Triple Glazing etc.

I installed the new boiler myself and also got a Boiler Energy Manager. This device can monitor the load on the system and make savings on the run time of the boiler. So far after 127 hours of boiler stat call time the BEM is indicating 20% savings.

Plus downsizing the boiler and it being Condensing it appears I have now reduced my winter season heating oil consumption to less than half.




This is a pretty significant saving so if any of you have an old boiler heating your house probably best get it replaced! I didn't think it would reduce the oil consumption by more than half.

My last oil delivery was 900 Litres in October for £347 IIRC. I checked online with a local supplier this morning - 900L is now £998!! That is totally unsustainable for many people and will likely get worse.

 

[gsxr]

My last oil delivery was 900 Litres in October for £347 IIRC. I checked online with a local supplier this morning - 900L is now £998!! That is totally unsustainable for many people and will likely get worse.

YIKES! Nearly triple the cost in 5 months!!

 

[JC220]

Fuel at the pumps here was already high in recent months at £1.40 odd per Litre.

Now the pump prices locally are £1.67 and rising daily. Again, never seen it near as high as this. Doesn't help my w221 diesel daily driver is doing 24mpg on my work commute over a mountain.

Diesel Prices in UK will likely hit £2 per litre inside the next week or two.

Not sure what can be done about that in the immediate other than reduce unnecessary journeys etc.

 

[JC220]

YIKES! Nearly triple the cost in 5 months!!

Yes it's crazy Dave. Many family's will be suffering from fuel poverty here and globally as these prices are too high.

Consider another thing here.

With Oil you can buffer your prices. Aka it is stored in a tank at your home. So you can bulk buy in summer and save.

Back during the start of Covid oil prices were Rock bottom. I got the 2500L tank filled for something like £600 roughly.

Whereas people here with mains gas and the 40% + ongoing rises can't buffer it. What they use on thay given day is what they have to pay for.

So I will wait this out and will NOT be paying that sort of money for heating oil. There is still about 400L in the tank and we're coming into spring/ summer.

People are also panic buying oil and emptying filling stations AGAIN here.

 

[gerryvz]

Im getting ready to go out and fill up my G-wagen's 100L tank, which is just above reserve. No question I'm going to have a gas bill for this tank of WELL over $100.

 

[dionphaneuf]

@JC220 what temps do you see around you? Did you consider a heat pump (ground sourced or otherwise) near you? I have to believe that the payback period would not be long if prices stay near what they are now

 

[JC220]

YIKES! Nearly triple the cost in 5 months!!

Actually the bulk of this change has only occured locally within the last 1 -2 weeks Dave. And even since this morning 900L of oil is now £1029.

 

[JC220]

@JC220 what temps do you see around you? Did you consider a heat pump (ground sourced or otherwise) near you? I have to believe that the payback period would not be long if prices stay near what they are now

This is a good point dionphaneuf!

My home is a 1970s build with masonry cavity walls. I have made the following updates:

• Floor Insulation - None and not possible to retrofit
• Walls - Were 100mm Masonary cavity walls. This empty cavity was pumped with silver bead insulation.
• Windows - were single glazed wood. Now Triple glazed 54mm units with thermal edges and PVC frames. (Since a window is the poorest performing element in any house I went for the highest specification I could)
• Roof - was 50mm Rockwool. I added 400mm

However the property is still an older one which is drafty and not near the spec of insulation and air tightness of a new building.

Also - the radiators and space heating system are designed to 80c flow temp like all older houses. These newer tecnologies lend themselves to newer properties with underfloor heating etc and designed flow temperature of 45c for example.

Alas - Oil it is for my house. And I have 2no modern Multi Fuel Stoves to provide space heating. (One with Back Boiler)

My 2 cents from experience (MCIAT 20 years designing and managing new builds):

Ground Source heat pumps do work well in a modern home but are expensive to install. I had one house with state of the art system and its own Solar Array in Garden which pretty much ran itself. (But heating system / Solar install was £150k)

Air Source Heat Pumps - Far, far too expensive to run in our climate. They lose efficiency in the colder ambient temperatures - when you need it most. Electricity bills therefore get very high in the dead of winter as they have to augment the heat output with Electricity. Therefore I do not believe Air Source Heat pumps are any good at the moment - in our climate at least. Your results may vary and interested to hear anyone thoughts on that.

Now - Boilers:

Gas Boilers - are much higher tec than Oil boilers. Since they can turn down the flame / modulate. But the very simple thing everyone overlooks when comparing Oil VS Gas cost is the Litre calorific value between the two is not equal. Kerosene has more KW output per L than Gas. I have carried out detailed calculations for several properties over the years and in every single time - despite Gas per L being Cheaper on Paper VS Oil - Oil is still cheaper as heating source here. Even with the outdated fixed jet oil burners not being as efficient as their Gas counterparts. There are now new modulating Oil Burners coming onto the market which will make them even better.

 

[gerryvz]

Premium gas is 20 cents off per gallon at Shell stations here on Tuesday, so the "normal" price right now is really 20 cents per gallon higher than shown.

A couple of weeks ago this price was $4.39 per.

 

[Trae]

Hard to believe we were energy independent 15 short months ago.

 

[alabbasi]

War is hell whether it's in Yemen or Ukraine. The goal of toppling dictators may drag the process out for longer than people can tolerate. We'll see. I like to think of happier days, like April 2020 when me and my Cadillac single handedly saved the Texas oil industry

 

[TerryA]

War is hell whether it's in Yemen or Ukraine. The goal of toppling dictators may drag the process out for longer than people can tolerate. We'll see. I like to think of happier days, like April 2020 when me and my Cadillac single handedly saved the Texas oil industry

View attachment 143965

I like that! Is that a 1968 DeVille convertible? I had 67 Coupe DeVille which I really loved. I actually drove it from OC California to New Orleans and back. It made for a great trip EXCEPT for the broken fuel pump in Carlsbad, New Mexico where the Cadillac dealer took a whole day to change a freeking fuel pump. They never saw a Caddy w/ a smog pump before and couldn’t get to it.

Anyway, we did get into Carlsbad Caverns on the last tour of the day.

That Caddy was deadly on rabbits between Huston and Carlsbad where I drove all night thru the desert.

 

[alabbasi]

Correct, it's a 68 DeVille convertible. I've never owned a car that gets so much attention as this one. Everybody loves it.

 

[TerryA]

Correct, it's a 68 DeVille convertible. I've never owned a car that gets so much attention as this one. Everybody loves it.

I love it to

 

[ArauzMotoring]

Hey gentlemen. I'm not sure if you guys would frown upon this, but I have been using an application called Getupside ever since I bought my Mazda RX-8. It works as a referral system for users to bring their business to signed up gas stations, and they have been adding restaurants as well.

If you sign up and use my code we both get a one time 20 cents per gallon cash back offer.

My code is NV5HA.

If you're not into this kinda thing it's cool, but ive used it and it's paid me hundreds of dollars just by using an app and taking a few minutes to claim an offer, drive to that gas station, fill up and take a picture of the receipt.

Check out this free app that gets you cash back on gas and other errands! Click this link or use promo code NV5HA to get an extra 20¢/gal bonus the first time you make a purchase. Save money on gas and food

Thanks for reading!

 

[Kyiv]

Your patience regarding high energy costs is greatly appreciated by some 40+ millions of Ukrainians

 

[Jlaa]

This is a good point dionphaneuf!

My home is a 1970s build with masonry cavity walls....

Also - the radiators and space heating system are designed to 80c flow temp like all older houses. These newer tecnologies lend themselves to newer properties with underfloor heating etc and designed flow temperature of 45c for example.......

Alas - Oil it is for my house. And I have 2no modern Multi Fuel Stoves to provide space heating. (One with Back Boiler)
.......I had one house with state of the art system and its own Solar Array in Garden which pretty much ran itself. (But heating system / Solar install was £150k)

@JC220, thanks for sharing.
My home was also built in the 70s. I have since updated it but I still have lots of sections of single-paned glass windows - 4 stories of these that are 9' high and 10' wide. That said, I live in a temperate climate so I can get away with a lot ....... it always intrigues me how residents of different climates think differently about home energy efficiency....

That said, that solar install pricing seems obscene. I had 6.9KW system (30 panels) Photovoltaic system installed about 15 years ago. It cost me somewhere around high USD 20K at the time. GBP 150K sounds absurd, or enormous. Anyways, 15 years later and I'm quite fond of that decision that I had made - we generate more electricity than we use.

We still heat our house with natural gas though, as @Trae implicitly points out, we in the USA had a major boom in natural gas production in the past 2 decades.... I should also mention that underfloor heating is the BEST thing I ever did to this house. Everything is so comfortable with underfloor heating.

Your patience regarding high energy costs is greatly appreciated by some 40+ millions of Ukrainians

Gasoline here in SF, which probably has the highest cost in the country, are:

• $6.29 / gallon for 91 Octane at the Chevron near me.
• $5.35 / gallon for 91 Octane at Costco some miles away from me.

Although we in the USA import very little Russian oil, I understand that the energy markets are all related. I am perfectly happy to ride out these energy costs though, if I can stop and take the time to smell a field of sunflowers.

 

[TerryA]

I just filled up two cars with Arco Midgrade at $5.59 gal. $104.00 total. $62.00 went into my KIA Optima (my so called Economy Car).
I passed the local Costco where the gas is cheaper ($5.35 gal, really?) but I could never wait in the line. They are so long it would take at least 2 hours. I haven't checked out local Costco's price but I guess I will have to.

At this rate I will have to cut my retirement short and break out the "WILL WORK FOR FOOD" sign.

@Jlaa, You may be perfectly happy to ride out these energy costs but you can probably afford it. I don't particulary like it but I can live with it for a while.

I think of the people who live paycheck to paycheck. They are probably closing in on breaking even between the fuel bill and the earned income.

 

[744Brillantsilber]

That's an interesting topic for sure!

In Germany both fuel and Diesel reached crazy prices. And heating gas and oil did even more.

I don't know how many people can still afford to heat if it continues like that! Not to mention everything else that goes up in price (again...) now.

I am very glad that my future home is heated with wood (mostly renewable and from the own forrest) and with some electric ovens.

With current fuel prices (2.35€ per Liter) I need around 300€ a month for the commute only. At 740 miles a month and with a car that does 26mpg.
It hurts!

But: I spent a week in Kiew last October during a business trip. Met many great people and discovered a (at least back then) beautyful country!
My thoughts are with everyone there, and if it helps those people I am ok to pay those stupid prices for a while.

 

[JC220]

That's an interesting topic for sure!

In Germany both fuel and Diesel reached crazy prices. And heating gas and oil did even more.

I don't know how many people can still afford to heat if it continues like that! Not to mention everything else that goes up in price (again...) now.

I am very glad that my future home is heated with wood (mostly renewable and from the own forrest) and with some electric ovens.

With current fuel prices (2.35€ per Liter) I need around 300€ a month for the commute only. At 740 miles a month and with a car that does 26mpg.
It hurts!

But: I spent a week in Kiew last October during a business trip. Met many great people and discovered a (at least back then) beautyful country!
My thoughts are with everyone there, and if it helps those people I am ok to pay those stupid prices for a while.

Having Solid Fuel appliances as an option is a great idea!

I have 2no high efficiency multi fuel stoves in my house. One is a very large boiler model I don't light very often at all but for example now if I was about to run out of oil I could switch to it and it will heat all radiators in my house:



I have a second smaller room heat only stove which is lit every evening and weekend without fail during winter period. This heats our open plan living room to 22c or above depending on how long it is running. A stove fan on top is powered by the heat and really throws the heat out



A bag of coal will run the small Living room stove for 3 or 4 evenings. And because of this we don't need to put on the downstairs oil heating zone rarely at all.

 

[ace10]

The "solution" is obviously to beg for oil from Iran and Venezuela.

The current Washington DC talking point that the Russian invasion is responsible for high gas prices and inflation might be one of the most truly insulting things to be pushed onto the American people in years.

 

[ArauzMotoring]

My friends in the oil industry claim they could produce $60/barrel oil right here in the USA, from the Permian Basin (West Texas), in very short order if Federal government regulatory handcuffs were removed.

I'm hoping, by late November 2022, they'll get the opportunity.

Hang in there my M119 friends.

It's part of build back better. Make oil un-affordable, and tell us we're stupid for not buying electric cars.

Oil is freedom. Electricity can be controlled centrally, via power meters.

Then the president is ballsy enough to tell us "it's simply not true "

 

[Jlaa]

The "solution" is obviously to beg for oil from Iran and Venezuela.

The current Washington DC talking point that the Russian invasion is responsible for high gas prices and inflation might be one of the most truly insulting things to be pushed onto the American people in years.

To be fair I get the sense the inflation problem is multifaceted. I do not follow what comes out of DC with laser precision, but, in my view:

• Pandemic supply chain snarls caused prices of goods to go up due to decrease of supply. For ex, silicon microchips and automobiles.
  
  
• Pandemic related factors caused extreme lumpiness in demand of certain items, like oil and gasoline, which caused some producers of such items to close up shop in the early parts of the pandemic - because the price of oil was not sustainable at less than zero prices per barrel (remember those days?). Now that demand has sky rocketed, those producers have yet all to come back online.
  
  
• The Fed - of course excess liquidity has driven up the price of assets everywhere.
  
  
• Overly generous “wealth redistribution” - of course showering people with unemployment benefits - both legitimate and fradulent - has caused the cost of goods (but not so much services) to go up.
  
  
• Of course the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions and decoupling of Russia from the global financial system has caused the price of oil to go up - not to be conflated with the price of gasoline. Even though we in the US import very little Russian oil, other countries import a lot of it and we are all competing, as consumers, for the same barrels of oil.
  
  
• @Trae I do not understand the regulatory effects as it pertains to drilling in the Permian basin, and I would be keen to learn more as it relates to $60 per barrel oil. I have friends in West Texas, but ofc they are in the Tech industry (sales people and system engineers).

 

[Jlaa]

It's part of build back better. Make oil un-affordable, and tell us we're stupid for not buying electric cars.

Oil is freedom. Electricity can be controlled centrally, via power meters.

To play devil’s advocate though, solar PV + batteries breaks the connection to “central control”.

 

[Jlaa]

I just filled up two cars with Arco Midgrade at $5.59 gal. $104.00 total. $62.00 went into my KIA Optima (my so called Economy Car).
I passed the local Costco where the gas is cheaper ($5.35 gal, really?) but I could never wait in the line. They are so long it would take at least 2 hours. I haven't checked out local Costco's price but I guess I will have to.

At this rate I will have to cut my retirement short and break out the "WILL WORK FOR FOOD" sign.

@TerryA I highly suggest that you go give Costco a try. The line moves much much faster than you might expect, for the following reasons:

1) There are usually four banks of double-sided pumps w 4 pumps per bank for 32 pumps in total.

2) The queuing system is one way - no confused drivers pointing every which way which speeds things up.

3) The hoses are long enough to provide for fueling on either side of the car.

4) There is digital signage above each bank which indicates which fueling station (per vehicle) is vacant and which is occupied. This ensures that newcomers get to a vacant station asap.

5) Unlike a regular gas station, there is no convenience store to sell chips and drinks … low margin gasoline is subsidized by the bigger costco store (not a convenience store) and therefore nobody can consume a fueling station by leaving their car parked at the pump, leaving it idle for 15+ min.

The whole fueling operation at Costco is a marvelous exercise in efficiency. Whoever is in charge of fueling ops at Costco deserves a raise!

Just compare prices - Costco to Chevron. It is almost $1 / gallon difference! Also I have never seen diesel get close to $7 per gallon.

 

[ace10]

The local Costco has been absolutely sticking it to their members for the past couple of weeks.
Waiting in line for 20,30,45 minutes to save a maybe a buck on a fill-up, after paying for the annual fee just doesn't make sense.





Sam's club is pricing regular at $4.12 presently.

 

[Jlaa]

The local Costco has been absolutely sticking it to their members for the past couple of weeks.
Waiting in line for 20,30,45 minutes to save a maybe a buck on a fill-up, after paying for the annual fee just doesn't make sense.


View attachment 144520


Sam's club is pricing regular at $4.12 presently.

I wish I had a Sam’ Club nearby. Anyways, are your 20-45 min wait times at Costco due to not following the cardinal rule of Costco? I.e. - “ALWAYS go to Costco in the AM hours and NEVER go there on the weekends!”

BTW - if I fill my 11 gallon Toyota Hybrid tank at Costco 5.10 per gallon instead of Chevron 6 per gallon I end up saving $9.90. If I follow the Cardinal Rule of Costco (CRoC) I end up waiting between 0-5 min.

 

[ace10]

I wish I had a Sam’ Club nearby. Anyways, are your 20-45 min wait times at Costco due to not following the cardinal rule of Costco? I.e. - “ALWAYS go to Costco in the AM hours and NEVER go there on the weekends!”

I dropped COST once they went full woke two years ago.

The ability to upgrade Sam's account to "free ship" is the kill shot to COST, for me. I filled up at a Maryland Sams last week on a roadtrip. Lunchtime, the lines were 0 to 1 car deep.


It's wonderful that we have choices.

 

[gerryvz]

The best thing about Sam's Club over Costco is the "scan and go" feature, whereby you use the app to scan items as you put them into your shopping cart. Then you total up on the way to the door, pay with your stored credit/debit card, and COMPLETELY avoid any sort of manned or scan-it-yourself checkout line at the front of the store.

You just scan items as you put them in your cart, then total up and pay via the app when done, a store person does a quick check on the way out the door, and you're GONE.

Costco is very inefficient by comparison.

As far as anything relating to energy policy and economic reality coming from anyone in Washington DC, it's all excuses, lies and complete BS. And the American public knows it. And people are PISSED OFF because the wrong priorities and policies have been pursued.

I continue to see zero divergence in the path to an eventual US Civil War. Prepare accordingly.

 

[maw1124]

To be fair I get the sense the inflation problem is multifaceted. I do not follow what comes out of DC with laser precision, but…

Don’t worry @Jlaa, most people don’t follow it and wouldn’t understand it if they did. Hence they think Presidents control gas prices… as opposed to, you know, profit motive. I learned in my teens as it relates to gas prices, “nothing raises the price faster than a good excuse.” I’ve since learned that logic applies to much of life. Your post lays out a lot of the reasons [and perhaps excuses] for price fluctuations.

In particular, when oil dropped into the mid-$40s per barrel, US investors started to demand drillers stop drilling and return capital to shareholders instead. Of course, wanting to keep their jobs and remain employable, the management of those companies obliged. No one else was going to pay them what they’re making, so keeping their jobs seemed like a good idea to them. Then the pandemic. Then Putin is Putin, Iran is Iran, China is China, and so here we are. Perfect excuses. And I’m sure this current President absolutely hates the timing because there’s not much else he can do.

I personally think the natural price of oil is in the mid-40s for demand reasons, and I’m not sure why the world keeps acting like it’s a supply issue. People chose Prius over ‘70’s land boats decades ago, for everything, including taxis. And once there were no more wars in the Middle East and the pandemic caused China to stop building cities no one lives in, of what value was oil? About $40 a barrel, and headed downward. My gas usage is headed the same direction, and has been for over a decade. Work from home anyone? The pandemic encouraged a lot more Yesses.

So I guess “we” needed another war… er excuse.

maw

 

[Jlaa]

Don’t worry @Jlaa, most people don’t follow it and wouldn’t understand it if they did. Hence they think Presidents control gas prices… as [opposed sic: supposed] to, you know, profit motive.

So much this.

In particular, when oil dropped into the mid-$40s per barrel, US investors started to demand drillers stop drilling and return capital to shareholders instead. Of course, wanting to keep their jobs and remain employable, the management of those companies obliged. No one else was going to pay them what they’re making, so keeping their jobs seemed like a good idea to them.

Also so much this - you lay that out so clearly. Shareholders, being the rightful owners of companies, have every right to demand that capital be returned to themselves rather than “reinvesting” capital to lose money at $40 a barrel.

Those producers have yet to come back on line and pump oil.

Also … did you guys see that Berkshire is hoovering up shares of Occidental Petroleum?

Berkshire now owns $6.8 billion of the common stock of OXY, a $54 billion dollar company. Well over 10%.

Berkshire also has warrants to buy another 83.9 million Occidental shares at $59.62 each (another $5 billion worth). The warrants are not useful now because they are above market price …. But soon …….

Warren Buffett is still buying Occidental Petroleum, adding shares worth $1.5 billion

Buffett spent more than $1.5 billion this week to add another 27.1 million shares to Berkshire Hathaway's stake.

www.cnbc.com

 

[maw1124]

Also … did you guys see that Berkshire is hoovering up shares of Occidental Petroleum?

No I hadn’t seen that. Thanks for the link (and for catching the typo). He’ll be as American as apple pie in a minute — oil (check), insurance (check), banking (check), bad food (check)… and let’s not forget the cell phones people can’t live without (check). Why buy any one social media company when you can just own them all through the phone? It’s tough to lose money on those in this country.

He’d been bemoaning the lack of good investments for some time, but he seems pretty well covered to me (says his stock performance year over year).

maw

 

[ace10]

Love that WB is buying the shit out of BNSF.
Rail ain't going anywhere, anytime soon.

There's a loooooong way to go on electrification. And autonomous vehicular traffic.
We still haven't figured out the blocking and tackling when it comes to BEVs.

 

[maw1124]

Love that WB is buying the shit out of BNSF.
Rail ain't going anywhere, anytime soon.

There's a loooooong way to go on electrification. And autonomous vehicular traffic.
We still haven't figured out the blocking and tackling when it comes to BEVs.

Yeah, I think he’s well positioned to take advantage of infrastructure legislation. The funny thing about those stocks is they look just like war stocks, simply because war is a logistics and infrastructure exercise, primarily (blocking and tackling, getting pieces where they need to be).

maw

 

[Jlaa]

Love that WB is buying the shit out of BNSF.
Rail ain't going anywhere, anytime soon.

Berkshire, yeah, has owned the entire BNSF railways since 2009. “Only” 44 Billion - it was cheap at the time, and seems even cheaper today.

There's a loooooong way to go on electrification. And autonomous vehicular traffic.
We still haven't figured out the blocking and tackling when it comes to BEVs.

Yeah, BNSF has been testing BEV as well.

BNSF leads the charge on testing battery electric locomotive

BNSF and project partners are developing and will soon begin testing a battery-electric high-horsepower road locomotive (the type that moves freight trains from Point A to Point B). BNSF and other railroads have tested low-horsepower battery-electric locomotives in rail yards for years, but...

www.bnsf.com

 

[maw1124]

EVERYONE in transportation is testing BEV everything… because, you know, they don’t want to be dinosaurs… and keeping their jobs is a good idea to them. These concerns aren’t simply political. They are evolutionary at both the micro and macro levels.

maw

 

[gerryvz]

Everybody knows that gas prices indeed suck. In real dollars, they are the highest they have ever been.



Of course, everybody wants to blame somebody for the hike in gas prices. Because this is 2022 and everybody lost their minds around 2015 or so, everybody wants to blame the “other guy” for high gas prices. So let’s take a step back and talk about some very real realities.

1. Joe Biden Did Not Cause Gas Prices to Hike: Everybody likes to blame the President for causing gas prices to go higher. But guess what; he doesn’t make gas cost expensive. No President makes gas expenses. No President has any impact on the short-term cost of gas. That is all controlled by external factors, many of which are far beyond any President. If anything, the first action Biden took that may directly affect supply happened on March 8: banning the import of Russian oil.
   
   The corollary to this is:
2. Joe Biden Cancelling the Keystone XL Pipeline Did Not Cause Gas Prices to Hike: I know that everybody likes to dunk on Biden for canceling the Keystone XL pipeline. And they should: the cancellation of Keystone XL was a shortsighted decision that hurts American energy security and cost a lot of Americans good, high-paying jobs. But gasoline that traveled through Keystone wasn’t going to hit the American market until 2030 at the earliest. That has zero impact on current gas prices.
3. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Did Not Cause All of the Gas Price Hikes: Blaming Russia and Vladimir Putin for the hike in gas prices accounts for some, but not all, of the gas price hike. Uncertainty in the markets did increase after the invasion and that accounts for some of the most recent hikes. But when you go back three years the prices went up drastically too. That’s not all Russian influence.

So what did cause the drastic gas price hikes over the last two years? Why is gas so much more expensive under Biden than Donald Trump? Three reasons:

1. COVID: The price of gasoline crashed in April 2020. Obviously, that was due to the effect of COVID and reductions in gasoline usage and travel. But there were other downstream impacts of that. With more gas being available, supply far outpaced demand. However, eventually demand caught up and exceeded demand as work stoppages during COVID decreased supply, something that was exacerbated by supply chain issues. This caused some of the price increases throughout 2021. But what also caused increases was…
2. Inflation: Inflation is sky-high right now. Why? A toxic combination of supply chain shortages, minimum wage increases, and government handouts through federal stimulus programs. Inflation increases costs across the economy which ends up also increasing gas prices.
3. Oil Companies: It’s not what you think it is either. Read this (link to CNBC article):
   The root cause of today’s high gas prices isn’t politics: It’s financial pressure on oil companies from a decade of cash-flow losses that have made them change financial tactics. Investment in new wells has dropped more than 60%, causing U.S. crude oil production to plummet by more than 3 million barrels a day, or nearly 25%, just as the Covid virus hit, and then fail to recover with the economy. For an oil-drilling sector that lost 90% of its stock value from 2012 through early last year, it hasn’t been the toughest call in the world.
   
   That means oil companies aren’t as flush with cash to keep the oil flowing. Again, supply and demand is the cause.
   
   Just don’t be Pete Buttigieg.

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1500879122486210563/pu/vid/720x406/pcgWaDPwwiAR4PI8.mp4?tag=12

 

[dionphaneuf]

I actually think people are in a better place to be insulated from these costs than ever before.

• EVs make a lot of sense for a lot of people. They don't work for everyone for everything, but something like the Hyundai Ioniq5 can be had for <$45k out the door BEFORE incentives, and <$35k in many states. That's less than the cost of an average car for a 300+mi range EV that can add 200 mi of range on a fast charger in 15 minutes. You can pretty easily average into $0.07/mi without solar on an average grid - equivalent to 85 mpg at $6/gal.
• More and more EVs are offering Vehicle 2 Grid, such as said Ioniq5 (and its Kia EV6 twin) and the forthcoming F150 Lightening. Currently they can 'only' do 2-3 kW....but with pack sizes ranging from 75-130 kWh, that's a lot of energy for 'free' when you get the EV anyway
• Solar is dirt cheap and only getting cheaper. V2G from EVs makes the storage aspect that makes this usable way easier.
• If you're in a place where temps don't get regularly below -5C, a heat pump isn't out of the question. Plenty of backup options available

With all of the options, it's not impossible to really insulate yourself from costs like this. True, there is an initial capital outlay, but it's worth it.

Also, I'm really excited about fusion. For real, this time. Fingers crossed. No jinxing. Or givebacks.

MIT-designed project achieves major advance toward fusion energy

For the first time, a large high-temperature superconducting electromagnet was ramped to a field strength of 20 tesla, the most powerful magnetic field of its kind ever created. The demonstration helps resolve the greatest uncertainty in the quest to build the first fusion power plant that can...

news.mit.edu

 

[alabbasi]

1. Joe Biden Did Not Cause Gas Prices to Hike:
2. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Did Not Cause All of the Gas Price Hikes:

In fairness, these two have a direct relationship to the recent exponential rise in the price of fuel. Gasoline prices are dictated by the global cost of oil and removing the second largest supplier will lead to immediate price hikes as every company that's involved in that supply chain understands that there's no telling what the replenishment costs will be. The problem is purely political.

Anyone want to speculate on what a W123 240D running on chip fat will be worth next month?

 

[ace10]

The Ministry of Truth has released a carefully crafted statement apportioning blame for high gas prices:

The data show otherwise:

 

[maw1124]

Correlation, causation, what’s the difference? Who cares, as long as it fits the argument one seeks to make, right?

maw

 

[Jlaa]

Hi Everyone, can we try to keep stuff apolitical here? I'd be really thankful if we kept it apolitical ---- this place is a refuge from politics for me. Thanks.

-jlaa

 

[maw1124]

Oil falls below $100 on Russia-Ukraine talks, demand concerns
Oil falls below $100 on Russia-Ukraine talks, demand concerns

Absent war, what’s oil worth?

If you think about the oil needed to move ships, tanks and war planes around the globe, it becomes a very interesting question. This one is a “war next door” and it’s yanking the oil price around on a string.

So guess what the US / Middle East conflict WAS doing for oil demand, for over 15 years. Short answer is it was using so much oil that “supply” became thought of as the issue. So the US oil patch was happy to oblige. Without that much oil being used anywhere on the globe for anything, it’s becoming clear that “demand” concerns are really at play. Hence the US oil patch isn’t spinning itself back up for hydraulic fracturing or otherwise — once bitten, twice scorned. A great mentor used to always remind me, “in the long run, economics always wins.” His point was that sentiment, idealism and ideologues change like the wind. But not economics.

No one drives as much as they did before 9/11 (the last time there wasn’t artificial oil demand) and what they drive is more energy efficient. And cars and trucks consume the stuff at nothing like the rate of war jets, tanks, humvees and the like. Even for those of us still driving around hulking V8’s and V12s. I use less gas now than when I drove V6 Hondas and Nissans back in the early 2000s.

Demand, not supply.

maw

EDIT… the next level down discussion (for fans of the movie Inception) involves the impact of a stronger USD on the price of oil… but I’ll save that one for now. There are levels to this.

 

[Jlaa]

No one drives as much as they did before 9/11 (the last time there wasn’t artificial oil demand) and what they drive is more energy efficient. And cars and trucks consume the stuff at nothing like the rate of war jets, tanks, humvees and the like. Even for those of us still driving around hulking V8’s and V12s. I use less gas now than when I drove V6 Hondas and Nissans back in the early 2000s.

Demand, not supply.

True, true.

As well, in 1995, this is what the street scene looked like near Tsinghua University in Beijing. I remember they were building a road and hauling coal with oxen. That's a "restaurant" that you see in the back. So appetizing. So Brutalist-non-capitalist.


I cannot remember EXACTLY where this was, but I think it looks something like this now ... nearby. Those guys have EXPONENTIALLY more demand for oil than they did 20-30 years ago too.

 

[maw1124]

True, true.

I cannot remember EXACTLY where this was, but I think it looks something like this now ... nearby. Those guys have EXPONENTIALLY more demand for oil than they did 20-30 years ago too.

Exact and fair. Still what I wonder is whether they HAVE exponentially more demand, or they HAD exponentially more demand while they were building out. I focus on the latter but it certainly doesn’t rule out the former. And this is the great debate. No sooner than I published the article pointing to demand, the next article pointed to supply disruption from the sanctions. So people who are supposed to know this stuff (as opposed to mere onlookers like me) don’t. Hence, reasonable minds can differ. So anyone who’s “certain” about this or that is probably certainly wrong.

I think it’s more a demand than a supply story. But I could certainly be wrong.

maw

 

[alabbasi]

True, true.

As well, in 1995, this is what the street scene looked like near Tsinghua University in Beijing.

Don't panic, the mayor of London is planning to turn the city into pre 1990 Beijing and have everyone riding bicycles before too long.

 

[744Brillantsilber]

Having Solid Fuel appliances as an option is a great idea!

I have 2no high efficiency multi fuel stoves in my house. One is a very large boiler model I don't light very often at all but for example now if I was about to run out of oil I could switch to it and it will heat all radiators in my house:

View attachment 144515

I have a second smaller room heat only stove which is lit every evening and weekend without fail during winter period. This heats our open plan living room to 22c or above depending on how long it is running. A stove fan on top is powered by the heat and really throws the heat out

View attachment 144516

A bag of coal will run the small Living room stove for 3 or 4 evenings. And because of this we don't need to put on the downstairs oil heating zone rarely at all.

Looks very nice! And its a wise thing to do!

Until 2024 I will likely need to upgrade the ovens because of emission standards. Together with some new windows it should result in a more efficient concept.

And having most windows facing south helps during winter too. In summer its different though without AC.

 

[Jlaa]

Looks very nice! And its a wise thing to do!

Until 2024 I will likely need to upgrade the ovens because of emission standards.

This is fascinating. Your kitchen ovens have their emissions (are they natural gas powered?) regulated by the government?

I have a related but not exactly the same issue. 15 years ago I spent a lot of time and effort to purchase German built electric ovens with equally inscrutable and indecipherable controls as MB Becker radios. In fact, the controls are so difficult to use that it makes the Becker 1432 look like a triumph of GUI simplicity. .

Anyways they are now old enough that I have been having to replace parts - temperature sensors, etc….. but ARRRRGHHHH parts are starting to become NLA and new ones are no longer made in this special size….. sounds familiar with 90s Mercedes….

 

[744Brillantsilber]

This is fascinating. Your kitchen ovens have their emissions (are they natural gas powered?) regulated by the government?

I have a related but not exactly the same issue. 15 years ago I spent a lot of time and effort to purchase German built electric ovens with equally inscrutable and indecipherable controls as MB Becker radios. In fact, the controls are so difficult to use that it makes the Becker 1432 look like a triumph of GUI simplicity. .

Anyways they are now old enough that I have been having to replace parts - temperature sensors, etc….. but ARRRRGHHHH parts are starting to become NLA and new ones are no longer made in this special size….. sounds familiar with 90s Mercedes….

Yes indeed, new regulations from the government for wood and coal ovens regarding carbon monoxide and particles.
Ovens need to be checked yearly by a certified expert and need to meat the standards.

Oh man, that sucks! Sorry to hear it let you down!
It looks complicated for sure

I can absolutely relate to that! Waiting for an NLA water connection since late January with only 1.5 hours of warm water each day...

If you know whats broken feel free to let me know. Maybe sth can be found in Germany.