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Electric car impact on fuel availabilty and pricing in future(?)

Glen said:
Resources? Do you own more than one car? How many square feet is your home? Ever compare that to homes in the UK, Germany, Japan?
Click to expand...
All resources are not equal. For example, many homes are constructed with wood studs & sheathing, which is a renewable resource; some home siding is made of wood, etc. The stuff needed to make lithium-ion batteries for literally millions of cars is not only limited in availability, it's expensive and destructive to mine them from the earth.

Owning multiple used cars is, arguably, recycling... all my MB's were built decades ago (1987-1997) and I'm not buying new ones - yet.

Kinda seems like many/most auto mfr's jumped on the EV bandwagon before the technology was really ready for mass production and scaling up drastically. Yeah, the governments were a big driving force behind that (see what I did there?) but the auto makers could have pushed back and pursued alternatives, like Toyoda is...

:grouphug:
 
The rate of advancement of battery technology has been glacially slow, despite huge amounts of R&D going into it. I don't see any game-changing breakthroughs on the near to mid term horizon for battery technology (as it applies to BEVs) -- only modestly incremental improvements. As said, range increases seem to be being made mainly by denser batteries being packed into cars, rather than equivalent or lesser mass batteries with greater efficiency being achieved.

I just don't see this changing. That's why I believe that hybrid (ICE+battery) vehicles are the best compromise in efficiency & ROI vs. resource usage for the coming years. Despite the government forced push to "pure" BEVs, which will be resisted more and more the stronger the push becomes.
 
Glen said:
Re: range. Yes, in many cases, rear world range is often less than EPA estimated range. And in cold climates, it gets even worse. Again though, thats a now problem that will eventually get better. Another way to look at it, in many cases, the real world MPG of an ICE car is lower than the EPA estimate, maybe not by as large a margin but still lower.
Click to expand...
The real-world MPG of an ICE-based car is maybe going to be a couple or three less MPG, if that, than the 20-50% less MPG that we are seeing with BEVs. And as you said, in certain conditions, ranges decreases sometimes quite precipitously.

Just happened to come across this article a few minutes ago, thought I'd post it. Not too sure that too many of these BEV F-150s are going to be employed as day to day work trucks......

www.foxnews.com

Here's how far the electric F-150 can really haul a load, according to AAA

AAA tested a Ford F-150 Lighting electric pickup loaded to near its maximum payload capacity to see how the added weight affected its driving range.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
gsxr said:
All resources are not equal. For example, many homes are constructed with wood studs, which is a renewable resource. The stuff needed to make lithium-ion batteries for literally millions of cars is not only limited in availability, its expensive and destructive to mine from the earth.

Owning multiple used cars is, arguably, recycling... all my MBs were built decades ago (1987-1997) and Im not buying new ones (yet).

Kinda seems like many/most auto mfrs jumped on the EV bandwagon before the technology was really ready for mass production and scaling up drastically. Yeah, the governments were a big driving force behind that (see what I did there?) but the auto makers could have pushed back and pursued alternatives, like Toyoda is...

:grouphug:
Click to expand...
I understand where you are coming from. I have never personally purchased a new car in my entire life but we are not the norm. Like I said, for the average consumer a BEV is the easy choice when you factor in convenience and features.
 
5119 lbs ?!?!? :stickpoke:

Screenshot 2023-06-07 at 9.57.00 AM.png

If I seem overly obsessed with weight it is because I have a teenager that will be driving soon. I find it absurd that this is like MAD (mutually assured destruction). For the best chance of survival, I should ensure my teen drives the heaviest most gargantuan thing possible. (tongue in cheek).
 
Most new vehicles are overweight pigs nowadays, for various reasons, and EV's are even fatter. Based on sheer mass, Jlaa, you might want to put your teen in something like a 6600-lb Hummer H2 (just because the 8000-lb H1 is too difficult to parallel park in SF).

:rofl:
 
I've had my '87 300TDT out the last few weeks doing the usual springtime chores. I was somewhat shocked by the relative size of it compared to the usual SUVs in the parking lots. I doubt they have much more capacity than mine but they sure have grown...
 
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LWB250 said:
Saw this on another venue earlier today but this one doesnt appear to be paywalled:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/06/06/sorry-mr-bean-evs-are-better-choice/

Dan
Click to expand...
I am quite happy to credibly brag here that my 11MPG 1995 G-wagen and my 13MPG 1989 560SEC are both FAR more environmentally friendly, at this point in time, than any BEV or hybrid that can be bought today.

This is because my G-wagen and SEC were environmentally bought and paid-for 29 and 34 years ago. The emissions they emit in operation are not a particularly large amount given the overall amount of resources required to source, manufacture and operate/power the current and future BEVs.
 
I have the same opinion, that maintaining our old "grandpa" mobiles, and making sure they are running properly is the best thing we can do. Unfortunately, the same Washington Post article references CarbonBrief article that if you use their numbers, getting an EV may still be the better choice especially if it is your daily driver. Our hobby cars don't count here.

Factcheck: How electric vehicles help to tackle climate change

The graph below is the key to the article and you can hover with your mouse pointer over each section to see the grams of CO2 emitted per km. This chart has been normalized to 150km (93k miles) vehicle lifetime which I thought was low.

Screenshot 2023-06-08 at 4.37.48 PM.png


So according to this chart;

ICE vehicle manufacturing: 6,900kg of C02
BEV manufacturing (vehicle + battery): 9,750kg of C02 (40% more C02 to make a BEV)

At that point you have to make the gasoline or make the electricity which isn't CO2 neutral (unless you live in Norway). And that is the interesting part, making electricity will just get greener and greener every year, as will making gasoline, but probably not at the rate of that electricity manufacturing will get green (i.e. carbon neutral).

ICE cars also have emissions, which in this chart the CO2 emits out the tailpipe at a rate of 165g/km (average 2019 Euro car). Gerry's baller G-wagon is probably twice that. But let us stick with 165g/km.

That means you can go 9,750kg / 0.165 = 59,000km (36,000 miles) in your old car to create the same CO2 as making a new BEV. That is NOT many miles. I was very much surprised by this.

This analysis, and I haven't dug much deeper, shows the best thing you can do now is buy a BEV and drive the wheels off of it. The more you drive the more you get to the "break even" point and start cashing in on the C02 emission savings.
All that being said, it looks to me like the next two cars I get for my wife and I will be twin-turbo V8s!!! :wootrock:

- long distance charging infrastructure still sucks unless you have a Tesla (a used Model 3 however, just hitting $30k, is the perfect ECO commuter car, I am fighting my brain logic to not buy one now)
- performance BEVs cost a crap ton of money (e.g Taycan, EQE), a certified used ICE BMW or Mercedes of Lexus IS500 is a bargain in comparison
 

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RicardoD said:
Our hobby cars dont count here.
Click to expand...
They certainly do for folks like me, who ONLY own and drive "hobby cars". I only very very rarely drive my wife's 2023 Lexus IS500 or 2004 4Runner. My G-wagen and SEC get 95% of my driving.

RicardoD said:
That means you can go 9,750kg / 0.165 = 59,000km (36,000 miles) in your old car to create the same CO2 as making a new BEV. That is NOT many miles. I was very much surprised by this.
Click to expand...
My "baller inline-six" G-wagen has only had 40,000 miles (132K total miles) put on it since 2014 when I bought it. My SEC has had around 100,000 miles on it (250K total miles) since I bought it in 2002. E500 about 86,000 miles (144K total miles) since 2003.
 
@RicardoD thanks for the article. I learned a lot. My key takeaway is that Toyota Hybrids are Awesome for reducing C02 emissions for society in aggregate.
Some observations:

Below - Tesla Model 3 (made in China) vs. Prius ---- almost the same lifecycle C02 emissions! This is because much electricity in China is produced w/ coal. And this neglects the fact that you can make ~80 Prii vs 1 Model 3 with the same amount of raw materials.
Screenshot 2023-06-09 at 7.36.15 AM.png

Below - Tesla Model 3 (made in USA) vs. Prius ---- Tesla has maybe 5/6 the amount of lifecycle C02 emissions as the Prius. USA's electricity, on average, is somewhat cleaner than China's electricity (but not nearly as clean as Norway or Germany). And this neglects the fact that you can make ~80 Prii vs 1 Model 3 with the same amount of raw materials.
Screenshot 2023-06-09 at 7.36.45 AM.png


Below - Toyota Hybrid / Prius, in aggregate, is really the most efficient way for society to reduce C02 emissions - Superior to the Leaf EV in much of the USA (because of different sources of electricity) ---- and surprisingly, superior to the Plug-In-GM-Volt in ALL of the USA.
Screenshot 2023-06-09 at 7.41.29 AM.png
 
Jlaa said:
Factcheck: How electric vehicles help to tackle climate change

It looks like this chart says, in the USA, a Prius emits 160 grams/km CO2 over its lifespan as opposed to the BEV leaf which emits 130 grams/km.
In that case, for the same amount of battery raw materials, it would be better for society in 2023 to have 44 Prii (0.9kwhr) than to have just 1 Leaf (40kwhr)
Click to expand...
www.wsj.com

EV Makers Confront the ‘Nickel Pickle’

Large amounts of the mineral are needed for electric car batteries, but getting it out of the ground and refining it often requires clearing rainforests and generating large amounts of carbon.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
 

Attachments

gerryvz said:
www.wsj.com

EV Makers Confront the ‘Nickel Pickle’

Large amounts of the mineral are needed for electric car batteries, but getting it out of the ground and refining it often requires clearing rainforests and generating large amounts of carbon.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
Click to expand...


Yes. Tesla has switched to LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries on several models to avoid having to use nickel as in Lithium Ion batteries.

The drawback, however, is reduced energy density which translates to even heavier cars and shorter range …

LFP Battery News - Is The End Of Nickel In Sight? - CleanTechnica

LFP batteries will see higher demand as prices for nickel soar.
cleantechnica.com cleantechnica.com
 
maw1124 said:
No surprises here I suppose...

www.cnbc.com

New technologies hurt car quality as EV brands fare poorly, J.D. Power says

Three Stellantis brands — Dodge, Ram and Alfa Romeo — topped this year's quality rankings.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

maw
Click to expand...
For anyone that works in or has worked in an enterprise where the product offering is a piece of hardware that is controlled by software ….. please tell me …… how many customer complaints / bugs / recalls / QA nightmares / stop-ships are due to SW? How many are due to HW? 😅😬🤣
 
Jlaa said:
For anyone that works in or has worked in an enterprise where the product offering is a piece of hardware that is controlled by software ….. please tell me …… how many customer complaints / bugs / recalls / QA nightmares / stop-ships are due to SW? How many are due to HW? 😅😬🤣
Click to expand...
Right... so the modern day vehicle is literally just a rolling version of this conundrum, which needs to be updated and upgraded on a continual basis. They can miss me like MySpace for that one.

maw
 
maw1124 said:
Right... so the modern day vehicle is literally just a rolling version of this conundrum, which needs to be updated and upgraded on a continual basis. They can miss me like MySpace for that one.

maw
Click to expand...
As well, you know automobiles have traditionally been defined as a “durable good”.

1687458282145.jpeg

Wonder if we will eventually recategorize autos as semi durable goods? 🤔

1687458376335.jpeg
 
www.notebookcheck.net

Sudden Tesla acceleration attributed to voltage spikes that may have tricked NHTSA into ruling it driver error

Researchers may have found the culprit behind the sudden unintended acceleration problem that Tesla vehicles have often been accused of. While investigations by NHTSA and Tesla attributed it to acceleration pedal mishaps, invertor voltage spikes may have mimicked erratic driver behaviour.
www.notebookcheck.net www.notebookcheck.net

Sudden Tesla acceleration attributed to voltage spikes that may have tricked NHTSA into ruling it driver error​

 
Well this throws a wrench and two monkeys in the works. So much for zero emission

It is estimated that only 7% of PM2.5 pollution from traffic comes from tailpipe exhaust fumes at roadside sites – the rest comes from sources such as tyre, clutch and brake wear, as well as the resuspension of road dust. Brake dust is the source of approximately 20% of total PM2.5 traffic pollution. PM2.5 means the particles are less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter and small enough to be inhaled into the deepest regions of the lung.

www.kcl.ac.uk

Air pollution from brake dust may have same harmful effects on immune cells as diesel exhaust

Metal particles from the abrasion of brake pads may cause inflammation and reduce the ability of immune cells to kill bacteria a new study has found, similarly to particles derived from diesel exhaust.
www.kcl.ac.uk
 
"Mercedes-Benz electric vehicle drivers will soon be able to use Tesla Superchargers in North America starting in 2024, reported a press release by the carmaker published on Friday.

The move will make Mercedes-Benz the first German OEM to implement NACS ports into its new electric vehicles starting in 2025. In the meantime, Mercedes-Benz will offer an adapter that enables the company’s existing CCS BEVs to charge seamlessly on the NACS network from 2024 onwards.

"Our strategic priority is clear: Building the world’s most desirable cars. To accelerate the shift to electric vehicles, we are dedicated to elevating the entire EV-experience for our customers - including fast, convenient, and reliable charging solutions wherever their Mercedes-Benz takes them. That’s why we are committed to building our global Mercedes-Benz High-Power Charging Network, with the first sites opening this year. In parallel, we are also implementing NACS in our vehicles, allowing drivers to access an expansive network of high-quality charging offerings in North America,” said Ola Källenius, Chairman of the Board of Management Mercedes-Benz Group AG."

Source: Here
 
Like I said when Ford announced they would be using NACS, it won't be long before most if not all manufacturers will follow suit.
 
Back to the software aspect:

Had an interesting conversation regarding "subscription" models for cars and their options and features with some family members yesterday. My position is such that if a manufacturer can alter the configuration of my car after I've purchased it, game over.

I realize this is a little dated, but it does a good job of describing such shenanigans:

Tesla seems to be stripping software features when cars are resold - Autoblog

I don't know if this is still occurring or not, but if there's the slightest chance it is, I have no interest in owning anything that has the capability of being "neutered" by the manufacturer.

-Dan
 
I have heard of the same Tesla tactics where cars originally sold with self driving mode are removed during the next service after car was resold. new owners were given the option to purchase it back at current market rates. Both BMW and Mercedes are moving to a subscription based service for vehicle options. I will never allow my car to have over the air updates. At that point you no longer have sole ownership. Ask farmers what they think of John Deere.
 
www.reuters.com

Porsche's iconic 911 to be sole survivor of automaker's combustion models

Porsche has a plan to gradually electrify its car lineup so that electric vehicles make up 80% of sales by 2030, and it aims to make its iconic 911 the only internal-combustion engine model left standing, a top executive said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

www.reuters.com

One dead in cargo ship fire, electric car suspected source, Dutch coastguard says

One person died and several were hurt when a fire broke out on a cargo ship carrying cars off the northern tip of Netherlands, forcing several crew members to jump overboard, the Dutch coastguard said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Reading these two stories near simultaneously feels a bit ironic, to put it mildly.

Presumably Porsche don’t want 911s going up in smoke on cargo ships?

maw
 
An electric 911 doesn't make sense as there's no reason to hang an electric motor in the back. The 911 would lose it's identifying characteristic, it has to stay ICE powered to be relevant.

But keeping it ICE powered means a couple things. They are banking on their eFuel endeavor to pay off and future Boxsters and Caymans may be the KotH models at Porsche.
 
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